415
FXUS61 KGYX 271718
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
118 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary cold front will cross the region this afternoon with
a few showers. High pressure builds in tonight with fair
weather through Friday. High pressure shifts southeast Saturday
as a trough approaches from the west. This trough will bring
unsettled conditions late Saturday into early next week with
high pressure returning around Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1050 AM Update: Updated near term temperatures with a few spots
running ahead of previously forecast values. Also adjusted PoPs
per radar presentation and webcam observations showing showers
crossing the far north ahead of the real dry/cool air push. No
other significant changes to the forecast needed for the
afternoon. Surface mesoanalysis reveals pretty meager CAPE ahead
of the line as it moves south and east this afternoon...with the
greatest chances for a rumble of thunder being along the
midcoast.

845 AM Update: Quick update to refresh near term grids and also
update text products as earlier transmission issues have been
resolved.

640 AM Update...Have made some minor tweaks to PoPs based on
latest radar trends and have also added some patchy fog near the
coast into central Maine based on observations. Otherwise, no
significant changes to the going forecast with showers exiting
the area over the next couple of hours.

Previously...

A short wave embedded within broad troughing over the Northeast
is crossing the area early this morning with the attendant
surface low tracking through eastern Maine. This low along with
its cold front will continue chances for showers through day
break while any convection will stay south and east of the area.
Low pressure will be pulling away from the area this morning
with the cold front pushing offshore around 12Z bringing an end
to showers and clearing skies. Drier air will usher into the
area later this morning with dewpoints falling into the 50s
north to low 60s south.

A secondary cold front will cross the area early this afternoon.
As drier air will have already started to work into the area
with PWATs dropping to less than an inch by 12 pm, this front
will have limited instability and moisture to work with. The 00Z
HREF shows a couple hundred of J/kg of MU CAPE will be present
along the coastal plain this afternoon bringing the chance for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.
Otherwise, it will be a mostly dry day with breezy west winds
and highs ranging from the upper 60s north to low 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west tonight with cooler and
drier air continuing to advect into the region of NW winds.
Winds look to remain elevated enough for optimal radiational
cooling while it the cool and dry airmass will still allow for
lows ranging from around 40F across the north to around 50F
across the south.

High pressure will slide across southern New England Friday for
mostly sunny skies. Highs will range from the upper 60s north
to mid 70s south with dew points in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A quiet start to the long term before a little more active weather
pattern returns. Friday Night into Saturday the high will drift
offshore as low pressure over the upper Great Lakes pushes
east. A warm front followed by a cold front that are associated
with this low will cross the area later Saturday Afternoon and
Night. This will result in increasing clouds during the day on
Saturday with rain developing during the afternoon over
NH...reaching western Maine by late afternoon or early evening.
Rain will continue into the overnight hours of Saturday Night
before tapering to showers by daybreak from west to east. With
an upper level trough approaching the area on Sunday scattered
instability showers and thunder showers will be possible. This
upper level trough will cross the area on Monday meaning a few
showers may linger on Monday although the bulk of the day should
be dry. As the upper level trough reaches the Gulf of Maine
there are indications that low pressure forms. Right now the
models have this east of the area allowing high pressure over
the Ohio Valley to slowly build east for Tuesday into Wednesday.
As long as the low just east of the area does not form further
west, we will see a return of dry and seasonable conditions for
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...

Summary: A secondary cold front pushes through the terminals this
afternoon and evening with high pressure building overhead
tonight and through Friday with quiet weather conditions. Mid
and upper level clouds increase Friday night as high pressure
passes south of the region.

Restrictions: A brief shower at AUG-RKD in the 18-20Z timeframe
may bring a brief MVFR restriction...otherwise expected VFR
conditions to dominate through Friday night.

Winds: Northwest winds 10g18kts will diminish to 5-10kts for
the overnight before strengthening to 10g18kts for the day on
Friday. Winds will diminish to calm/light-variable Friday night.

LLWS: No LLWS is expected through Friday night.

Lightning: Very low potential for an isolated thunderstorm AUG/RKD
through 20Z then no additional lightning potential through Friday
night.

Long Term...

VFR conditions Saturday morning. IFR conditions in developing
rain late Saturday over NH overspreading western Maine Saturday
evening and continuing Saturday night. MVFR with areas of IFR in
showers on Sunday as a upper level trough crosses the area.
MVFR to VFR conditions return on Monday as High pressure builds
east from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas stay below SCA thresholds today
through Friday. Winds will be westerly this morning shifting
southerly this afternoon. A secondary cold front crosses this
afternoon shifting winds northwesterly tonight. High pressure
slides across southern New England Friday allowing NW winds to
shift SW Friday afternoon.

Long Term...Wind and waves to remain below SCA conditions
through Saturday Afternoon.  A frontal system crossing the waters
Saturday Night and Sunday will result in SCA Winds and Waves with
areas of rain. Conditions to fall below SCA levels Sunday Night and
Monday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Arnott