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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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641 FXUS64 KHUN 271956 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 An upper level trough axis and associated sfc front continues to shift southeast through the local area, and has resulted in scattered to numerous showers this afternoon. Expect this activity to gradually decrease this evening as both synoptic and diurnal support weaken. With that said, these showers have been heavy at times and may lead to temporary periods of poor driving conditions, so use caution if driving into the rain. Afternoon temps have been suppressed into the mid to upper 80s, and the recent rainfall has certainly helped cool some locations down into the upper 70s. With clearing skies and light winds expected overnight, will have to keep an eye out for areas of dense fog heading into the morning hours. Not planning any fog related headlines at the moment, but something to be mindful of when heading out for the morning commute. Otherwise, expect overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Southerly flow will return to the area on Friday as broad upper ridging spreads east from the central Plains. This will lead to increasing temperatures through the weekend with daily chances for showers and storms, mainly diurnally driven during peak heating hours. Shower/storm chances will be highest Saturday afternoon and evening, ranging from 40-60% along and west of I-65 and topping out near 70% over northeast AL. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 80s/lower 90s through Saturday, and with the increasing Gulf humidity, some locations could near Heat Advisory criteria on Saturday. Please remember to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks indoors or in shaded areas if spending time outdoors, as well as making sure outdoor pets/livestock have adequate heat protection. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s each night, offering little relief from the heat. Fog will also be possible each night, but low confidence due to questions about cloud cover. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Sunday will bring a greater excessive heat risk, with temperatures warming a few more degrees with the building 8-5h heat dome across the southern U.S. However, a cold front will be undercutting the ridge on Sunday across the central Plains into the TN valley, will also bring our PoPs up above 50% for all areas, especially by midday into the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be the main hazards. As an upper trough drops into the northeast and mid Atlantic early next week, the 5h ridge will amplify and shift further east into the Gulf and Mid South regions. We will get some relief from the muggy conditions Monday into Tuesday before southerly flow redevelops by the middle of next week and brings sultry air back north along with highs back in the middle to upper 90s. Thus, excessive heat risk will increase once again. However, there is also some indication that the westerlies at 5h may flatten the upper high a bit by the middle of next week, including Independence Day, which may bring another boundary and potential MCS clusters further south into Mid South and TN valley. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Scattered to numerous showers are currently developing near KHSV and KMSL as of 18z. Some storms may develop later this afternoon if we get more instability. MVFR conditions are predominately expected at both KHSV and KMSL through a least 00z as we expect lower ceilings with surrounding showers and storms. Winds generally should be out of the NE at about 5-10 kts across the area. After 00z, any showers and storms should begin to dissipate and allow for better conditions at both terminals. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....25 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...Serre