259
FXUS64 KHUN 220540
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 940 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will likely continue this
evening and into the overnight hours. Light winds should allow for
some patchy fog to form, especially west of the I-65 corridor and
in portions of southern middle Tennessee. In these areas, pooling
of low level moisture near and ahead of a boundary moving into the
area should aid fog formation. With that boundary moving into
northern Alabama later overnight into daybreak on Sunday, several
mesoscale models are hinting at at least some isolated to
scattered showers or convection forming. Thus, added a 20 to 30
PoP into the forecast during that time. With fairly weak lift and
no shear, not expecting much strong thunderstorm activity, but
some lightning and heavy downpours could occur. Not sure if we
will see dense fog, but will have to monitor in case that
develops. It should be fairly warm and humid when you wake up in
southern middle Tennessee and into northwestern Alabama (lows in
the 68 to 71 degree range), but further southeast lows should be
in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The aforementioned upper ridge will generally progress east over
the northern Gulf coast through early next week. However, a few
subtle shortwaves may bring low chances (10-20%) of showers and a
storm or two to areas north of the Tennessee River both Sunday and
Monday afternoons. A more significant upper shortwave trough as
well as an approaching surface cold front is expected to increase
rain chances by Tuesday afternoon (low to medium; 15-40%). No
severe weather is forecast at this time. This pattern shift may
also cause a decrease in high temperatures, with highs beginning
in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday and topping out in the mid
to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon. Lows will continue to be a bit
warm, in the upper 60s to lower 70s, due to elevated moisture
through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The front will settle more into the region by the middle of next
week and potentially stall invof the mid TN Valley heading into
the end of the work week. The upper trough pattern will also
translate thru the Midwest/OH Valley regions past mid week,
maintaining a low chc of showers/tstms in the forecast thru the
end of the forecast period. The lack of a stronger return flow
pattern/associated influx of moisture will offset the prob for
higher rain chances next week, although this could easily change
pending future model runs. Slightly cooler air will at least
filter into the area Wed thru Fri with the passage of the front,
with afternoon highs trending more in the lower/mid 80s. This
slightly cooler air will also result in lows predom in the
lower/mid 60s thru the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Light winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies much of the
overnight period should allow some MVFR reductions to VSBYS at
both terminals between 8Z and 12Z. There is a very low chance (15
to 25%) of SHRA or -TSRA approaching either airport towards
daybreak into the early morning hours. However, for now left
precipitation out of the forecast for the terminals, due to
limited confidence.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...09
AVIATION...KTW