684
FXUS64 KHUN 211716
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1216 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 950 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A few radar returns can be seen to our northwest, but these
showers have been weakening as they progress southeastward. Little
to no lightning has been observed with these thus far as well.
Anticipating this activity to continue to decrease over the next
couple of hours as they continue southeast, but did introduce low
chances (5-15%) of showers over far northwest Alabama and the
northwestern portion of southern middle Tennessee during this
time. No other significant changes to the forecast were needed.
Still anticipating it to be warm today, with highs reaching the
lower 90s for most of the local area. Make sure to stay hydrated
and take breaks in the shade if you have outdoor plans!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Little change in the overall pattern is expected into the second
half of the weekend period, as high pressure over the southern
Atlantic region remains fairly stagnant, while the upper ridge
pattern translates more into the SE states. Lows early Sun look
to fall into the mid 60s/near 70F, before temps again rebound into
the lower 90s/near 90F later in the day. The upper ridge axis will
continue to drift eastward into the first half of the work week,
as a weak upper trough pattern traverses over the mid Plains. An
increase in cloud cover may keep afternoon highs Mon closer to the
90F mark, before a weak cold front out of the Plains states
approaches the Mid South/TN Valley areas on Tue. Low chances of
showers/tstms (20-30%) will develop along/ahead of the approaching
front on Tue, as highs trend more in the upper 80s/near 90F. Lows
into early Tue also look to remain in the mid 60s/near 70F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The front will settle more into the region by the middle of next
week and potentially stall invof the mid TN Valley heading into
the end of the work week. The upper trough pattern will also
translate thru the Midwest/OH Valley regions past mid week,
maintaining a low chc of showers/tstms in the forecast thru the
end of the forecast period. The lack of a stronger return flow
pattern/associated influx of moisture will offset the prob for
higher rain chances next week, although this could easily change
pending future model runs. Slightly cooler air will at least
filter into the area Wed thru Fri with the passage of the front,
with afternoon highs trending more in the lower/mid 80s. This
slightly cooler air will also result in lows predom in the
lower/mid 60s thru the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. There is a low
chance of fog during the overnight hours through early Sunday
morning, however, confidence is too low to include it in the
official TAF package at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...HC