651
FXUS64 KHUN 071909
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
209 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley as a dry air mass
remains in place with high pressure at the surface promoting a
clear sky. It`s a good night for radiational cooling as
temperatures will drop off quickly with the setting sun. Overnight
lows will be quite comfortable with early June, dropping into the
upper 50s to lower 60s in most locations.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The surface high will shift east of the Tennessee Valley on
Saturday, veering our surface flow to the southwest flow. This
will gradually serve to modify the drier air mass, especially by
the evening hours (as seen by dewpoints creeping back into the
lower 60s). Hi-Res guidance is catching onto to a shortwave
triggering an MCS over Missouri and pivoting into Ohio Valley late
Friday night into Saturday. This feature may bring some
additional cloud cover, but the sensible weather on Saturday will
be warm/dry -- with highs peaking into the mid to upper 80s.

Saturday night into Sunday morning, a slightly more amplified
shortwave will move from the Ozarks into the Mid South and
portions of the lower Ohio Valley once again. Ensemble guidance
is hinting that this activity may put out an outflow somewhere
across Tennessee during the late morning/midday hours. This
feature may serve as an additional focus for convection Sunday
afternoon/evening into portions of Sunday night. Good instability
in an uncapped environment and more than sufficient bulk shear
value may support at least a few strong storms sometime during
this window. This activity should wane late Sunday night as the
environment becomes worked over and the remnant boundary pushes
south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Forecast uncertainty increases considerably toward the beginning
of next week, as the 0Z suite of global models offers a wide array
of solutions regarding both the upper flow pattern across the
eastern CONUS and eventual position of a cold front that is
expected to drift southward through the region early Monday
morning. Due primarily to uncertainties regarding frontal
location, we have left a low (20-30%) chance POP in the forecast
from Monday-Tuesday, especially as the projected orientation and
proximity of the boundary (and resultant thermal gradient) may
support impacts from additional clusters of thunderstorms that
could originate across OK/AR and spread east-southeastward into
the central Gulf Coast. By the end of the forecast period, a
blocking mid-level ridge is likely to become established across
the TN Valley to the north of a 500-mb trough that will drift
southeastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico before stalling.
This should result in warmer temperatures on Wednesday/Thursday,
along with a transition to mainly isolated thunderstorm activity
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the period
with light winds and a mostly clear sky.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...AMP