Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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420 FXUS63 KICT 292020 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 320 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms late this afternoon-evening across far southern and southeast KS; better chances developing overnight into Sunday morning generally along/west of the Flint Hills. - Cooler Sunday. - Active weather pattern thunderstorm-wise Sunday night-early Monday, and again late Tuesday through next week. - Possible heat advisory headlines once again Monday and Tuesday. - Cooler and drier by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A strong cold front is currently in the process of stalling over far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, and will be a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening over far southern and southeast Kansas. Despite minimal upper support and warm mid-level temperatures, strong frontal convergence combined with very rich boundary layer moisture and strong surface heating should be enough to initiate storms. The combination of strong instability with modest to weak deep layer shear should support multi-cells with weak supercell structures. Isolated large hail is possible, although thinking the greater severe risk will be damaging downburst winds given impressive downdraft CAPE. Additionally, cannot rule out a landspout tornado or two given the strong/fat instability, low-level CAPE, steep low-level lapse rates, and low-level vorticity along the slow-moving frontal zone. Furthermore, locally intense rainfall rates exceeding 1-2+ inches per hour are likely given the above average precipitable waters. This could support localized flash flooding. OVERNIGHT--SUNDAY...Increasing warm advection and moisture transport north of the surface front around 850-700mb should support a gradual uptick in showers/thunderstorms overnight through Sunday morning. Thinking chances will probably be highest generally along and west of the Flint Hills. While limited instability and shear should prevent severe storms, a few of the stronger cores could support marginally severe hail. However, thinking the primary threat will be pockets of very heavy rainfall and localized flooding, given the continued rich precipitable water values and numerous shower/storm coverage. HREF output suggests the potential for isolated 2-4+ inch amounts through Sunday morning. Temperature-wise, increased clouds and a post-frontal airmass should keep Sunday temperatures seasonably cool to even below average. MONDAY--FRIDAY...The heat and humidity build back north across the region for Monday and Tuesday, with heat headlines once again possible, as afternoon through early evening heat indices climb into the 100-108 degree range. Additionally, model consensus progresses a front south into the region by late Tuesday, and stalls it across the region through late week. This, along with a few seasonably strong/deep upper troughs, will support periodic thunderstorm chances across the region late Tuesday through the end of the week. A seasonable combination of instability and deep layer shear should support strong to severe storm chances, along with locally heavy rainfall. NEXT WEEKEND...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports cooler and mostly dry weather by next Friday-Saturday, with lower dewpoints and seasonably cool to below average temperatures, as upper troughing deepens over the central and eastern CONUS. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions will start at all terminals but thunderstorms later in the TAF period will make for difficult flying conditions. Showers and thunderstorms with wind potential into the 45Kt range are possible in the KCNU area between 23Z and 03Z tonight but after that time, VFR conditions are expected to rule. The remaining terminals, VFR conditions are expected until close to 09Z to 11Z. KRSL and KSLN will likely see some showers with embedded thunderstorms during this time while KHUT and KICT will likely see this activity later in the 11Z to 14Z time frame. The main terminal of concern will be KGBD which could have several hours of thunderstorm activity. Very heavy rain is likely but winds are not expected to be severe. This heavy rain risk will significantly reduce VSBY conditions as a result. AFter 16Z to 18Z tomorrow, VFR conditions will return to all terminals. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ069>072-083- 091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ELM