643
FXUS63 KICT 290533
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1233 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storm potential this evening into tonight.

- More heat southern Kansas Saturday.

- Strong to severe storm potential Saturday evening far southern
  Kansas.

- Heat returns Monday and Tuesday.

- Off-and-on active thunderstorm pattern Tuesday night through
  late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...An isolated thunderstorm or two is
possible late this afternoon and evening over south-central Kansas
in vicinity of a surface trough/pseudo dryline approaching from the
west, and also across central and east-central Kansas in vicinity of
a weak cold front approaching from the north. Convergence is not all
that great along these features, and upper support is fairly meager,
which casts doubt on thunderstorm development. However, if a storm
or two can develop, an ample combination of instability, steep lapse
rates, and deep layer shear will support localized large hail and
damaging downburst winds, along with intense rainfall rates owing to
above average precipitable waters.

LATER THIS EVENING--OVERNIGHT...A separate area of thunderstorms is
possible later this evening and overnight, mainly across central and
north-central Kansas after 11 PM, as High Plains activity develops
and grows upscale within favorable upslope low-level flow underneath
the southern fringe of better upper forcing. If this activity can
reach central KS, the primary threat would likely be 50-60 mph
winds, small hail, and brief intense rainfall rates.

SATURDAY--SATURDAY EVENING...A few lingering showers/thunderstorms
are possible Saturday morning, as the frontal zone oozes slowly
south across the area. Otherwise, attention then turns to isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm chances over far southern Kansas
near the OK border late Saturday afternoon-evening in vicinity of
the stalling frontal zone. Despite minimal upper support, strong
frontal convergence should be enough to initiate storms. The
combination of strong instability and marginal deep layer shear
should be enough for a handful of strong to severe storms. Given the
weaker shear, thinking the hail threat will be marginal, with the
primary threats being locally damaging downburst winds and intense
rainfall rates.

The other main story for Saturday is the heat over southern Kansas.
Thinking widespread 90s are likely. When coupled with dewpoints in
the 70s, afternoon through early evening heat indices will top 105
degrees for many areas over mainly far southern Kansas, where a heat
advisory has been hoisted.

SATURDAY NIGHT--SUNDAY...Increasing warm advection and moisture
transport could support an uptick in showers/thunderstorms later
Saturday night and persisting into at least Sunday morning. Thinking
chances will probably be highest generally west of I-135. Widespread
strong to severe storms appears unlikely. Increased clouds and a
post-frontal airmass should keep Sunday temperatures seasonably cool
to even below average.

MONDAY--FRIDAY...The heat and humidity build back north across the
region for Monday and Tuesday, with heat headlines once again
possible, as afternoon through early evening heat indices climb into
the 100-108 degree range. Additionally, model consensus progresses a
front south into the region by late Tuesday, and stalls it across
the region through late week. This, along with a few seasonably
strong/deep upper troughs, will support periodic thunderstorm
chances across the region late Tuesday through the end of the week.
A seasonable combination of instability and deep layer shear should
support strong to severe storm chances, along with locally heavy
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

While TAFs show VFR conditions prevailing over the next 24
hours, the confidence in this forecast is low due to the
possibility of showers and storms within the first 12 hours of
the TAF period.

There are a couple areas of concern moving into the morning
hours today. First, a complex of storms moving into Missouri has
left a boundary draped across and east of the Flint Hills.
Several attempts of convective initiation have been notes over
the past couple of hours, but no storms have developed across
southeast Kansas yet. Still there remains an outside chance of a
couple of thunderstorms developing and impacting KCNU and
surrounding areas.

Meanwhile, a smaller complex of storms has developed and is
organizing across northwest Kansas. Despite suboptimal
environmental conditions, this complex of storms continues to
intensify as it moves eastward, likely due to better moisture.
If it continues to survive its trek along and south of I-70,
TAF amendments may be necessary across portions of central
Kansas prior to the 12Z TAF issuance.

This is all to say, confidence in the short term forecast is
low, and amendments to the current TAFs may be necessary. Stay
tuned for potential updates to the forecast.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ091>093-096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC