Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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140 FXUS62 KILM 250519 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 119 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moving into the area will bring thunderstorms to the area this evening. This front will dissipate over the area on Wednesday. Conditions will be hot and humid through the weekend. A second front will move across the region on Thursday bring a good chance of thunderstorms. A third front will move into the area by Sunday and this will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region on Monday. && .UPDATE... Showers are gradually coming to and end across portions of SC and moving offshore where they will likely continue through sunrise. Winds starting to turn northerly with portions of the area dropping into the mid 60 dew points. Forecast does not show much advancement from the front over the next few hours with temps and dew points holding steady. Added some patchy fog where winds are calm, skies are clearing, and where radar depicts some of the heaviest rainfall today. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... The cold front looks to have hung up to our west with this convection mostly due to a shortwave aloft, some drier air pushing in, and just a generally unstable atmosphere due to temps/dewpoints. The dry air is sequestering most of the activity which is expected to shift towards the coast by midnight as the actual front moves through. Lows will be tricky again tonight but hopefully not as warm as yesterday as it looks like the boundary sticks to the coast overnight. Clouds may be possible along the coast but unsure about fog inland due to the modest rainfall totals we`re seeing currently. Tomorrow the front will lift back to the north. Have cooler conditions near the coast with warmer temps inland. Isolated convection is possible during the afternoon primarily near the coast and in NE SC. No severe weather is expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An old front will shift northward over the forecast area on Tuesday evening and dissipate by Wednesday morning. In the upper levels, a weak high will develop on Wednesday before a mid-level trough shifts into the Carolinas. Hot and humid conditions will continue with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the upper 90 inland and lower 90s on the coast. Lows will range between 72 and 75 degrees. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The next best chance of precipitation is Thursday as a surface front moves into our region and dissipates on Friday. A second surface front moves to the coast Sunday night, and another good chance for thunderstorms will help with the current rain deficit. Hot and muggy conditions will continue with a slight cool down on Monday. Highs in the mid-90s inland are expected Thursday through Sunday and lower 90s by Monday. Heat advisory conditions are possible each afternoon between Thursday and Sunday, but we`re keeping a close eye on it. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers coming to an end early this morning will yield generally VFR conditions. As a weak front attempts to push through the area, northerly winds are expected to develop, bringing low clouds (MVFR with limited areas of IFR) this morning. Inland areas of NC, including LBT, could see patchy fog before sunrise. VFR developing after sunrise with isolated showers and storms confined to the SC coast this afternoon. Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty morning low clouds/fog. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday, Small Craft Conditions linger in our NC waters primarily due to seas. Isolated strong storms are possible over the waters this evening ahead of a front. Conditions should start to improve as the front reaches the coast late tonight before lifting back north through Tuesday. Winds will turn to the ESE near 10-15 kts with seas 2-3 ft. Tuesday Night through Saturday, Winds from the southeast to southwest through most of the forecast period, with winds generally around 10 knots. Seas will range between 2 and 3 feet. No advisories are expected. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...21 MARINE...ILM