462
FXUS61 KILN 010132
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
932 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool conditions
through this evening. An unsettled pattern is expected from late
Saturday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure still remains in control tonight, but will
continue to trek eastward. Cirrus clouds spill in from the west
overnight ahead of the next system. While overnight lows will be
relatively cool once again, temperatures won`t drop quite as
much tonight. Temperatures will be mostly diurnal, but a late
increase in southeasterly winds may cause temperatures to
warm up a few degrees before daybreak on Saturday. Still, lows
will dip into the upper 40s to middle 50s across the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions are still expected to stick around Saturday morning
ahead of an approaching upper level vorticity max and weak surface
disturbance. Mostly dry conditions may actually end up persisting
across the area until afternoon when rain finally starts to move in
from the west associated with the aforementioned system. A severe
threat is not at all expected since instability is minimal and shear
is well below severe thresholds. Dew points and cloud cover increase
through the day on weak southerly flow. Forecast highs are near 80.

The chance for rain persists Saturday night with the upper level
trough axis pivoting through. Forecast QPF is less than and inch
with means there is little flood concern. Forecast lows drop into
the middle to lower 60s. Surface flow will be southerly to start the
night before shifting to the west later on the western side of the
trough axis.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers will still be ongoing at the start of the period as
weakening short wave continues east. But precipitation will
diminish as the day progresses. Any remaining surface boundary
will wash out and weak high pressure will build in resulting a
dry period from Sunday night through much of Monday night.

Mid level pattern will then evolve into a negatively tilted
omega block through the rest of the week. The region will be on
the troughing end of the block. This will bring chances of
showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday. That will continue
into Thursday when the mid level trough becomes deep enough to
force a front through the region. Drier conditions are forecast
for Friday as high pressure builds in to the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR continues through majority of the taf period. High level
clouds move across the region tonight, with mid level clouds
building in Saturday afternoon. As the lower levels continue to
saturate, MVFR/IFR CIGs move in from the west and impact
KCVG/KLUK first. Have this mentioned in the extended KCVG taf,
with a mention of rain showers moving in as well with this
system.

Surface winds around 5 kts remain out of the southeast
overnight. Winds increase to around 10 kts on Saturday and will
shift towards the south.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through
Sunday, and again on Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Clark