235
FXUS63 KIWX 300708
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
308 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today and tonight with few clouds. Highs today near 70
  with lows tonight near 50.

- Sunny and seasonably cool Monday with highs near 75.

- Warm and humid with chances for thunderstorms Wednesday
  through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Showers and storms had ended over the area earlier. The storms
and had moved southeast as drier air was spreading into the
forecast area causing the atmosphere to rapidly stabilize.
Earlier (00Z) CAPE values were over northern Indiana were 2500
to 4200 J/Kg per SPC mesoanalysis, but had fallen to between
1500 and 2000 J/Kg. RAP model data eliminates CAPEs/instability
by 10Z/6 AM EDT, so given these ongoing trends and dissipation
of remaining storms over the forecast area, storm redevelopment
is not expected.

A cool airmass spreading over the area will bring chilly
weather tonight with temperatures falling to around 50 degrees.
Warmer and humid conditions will return Wednesday through
Friday accompanied by several chances for showers and storms.
The airmass spreading back over the area later this week will be
similar to the one over the area yesterday with high precipitable
water values. GFS BUFKIT Soundings initially favor more of a
tall & thin type of environment with CAPEs (instability <1000 J)
supporting locally heavy rainfall. However, ahead of the front
Friday, the atmosphere is more likely to be somewhat more
conducive for severe storms with greater instability.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Cold front is currently crossing the area with a solid push of
cool/dry air advection behind it. Some brief MVFR ceilings are
possible at KSBN later this morning but the degree of dry air
advection does call that into question. Otherwise VFR conditions
expected with just SCT-BKN 4-5kft cu. NNW winds will gust up to
25 kts at times during the day Sunday, relaxing after 00Z with
clear skies anticipated.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...AGD