456
FXUS63 KJKL 210843
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
443 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A potential for showers and thunderstorms returns today and then
  persists much of the time over the next week.

- High temperatures will approach 90 degrees through the weekend,
  then trend lower as time goes by during the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 442 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2024

A weak cold front runs from northwest OH through southern IL early
this morning. Beneath meager west northwest flow aloft, it is
running out of momentum and is only expected to get as far as the
Ohio river or slightly into KY before it stalls. Weak moisture
advection ahead of the front will bring modest instability
today-- elevated at first, but becoming surface based with daytime
heating. Despite little support aloft, the front and the
instability could be enough to bring scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Any activity should die out this evening.
Depending on the progress of the front, drier air may try to nudge
into our area from the north tonight and early Sunday.

An upper low currently over AZ will move east northeast and meet
with a northern stream upper trough progressing eastward across
the north central CONUS on Sunday. This will strengthen our flow
aloft and support another cold front which will approach from the
Midwest. What`s left of the first frontal boundary lifts to the
northeast as a warm front ahead of the next cold front. This could
bring us a few showers or storms, especially late in the day
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 442 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2024

An updated long term discussion will be sent shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2024

Satellite imagery and obs indicated fog developing in the deeper
valleys at the start of the period. It will continue to grow in
depth and breadth until sunrise, bringing localized IFR or worse
conditions. It is unlikely to affect TAF sites. Fog will dissipate
after sunrise.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
occur during the day, possibly by sunrise in our northern
counties. They will bring localized sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise
VFR conditions (post fog) should last into tonight before valley
fog again develops.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL