454
FXUS63 KJKL 040953
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
553 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sultry weather continues through Friday. Afternoon heat indices
  may reach near 100 in some locations. There is also a
  persistent threat of thunderstorms through Friday, especially
  during daytime hours. A few thunderstorms could produce locally
  heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.

- A cold front finally pushes through as we move into the weekend,
  with dry and somewhat cooler and less humid weather arriving.

- Warmer and more humid conditions will make a noticeable comeback
  on Monday and continue into the week, along with a potential for
  more thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 546 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2024

A weakening, stalled frontal boundary is laid out north of the
Ohio River early this morning. Its exact position is a bit muddled
due to weak surface winds and prior convection. In the upper
levels, we reside along the southern edge of the prevailing
westerlies, with a weakening high over the Deep South and multiple
waves propagating through the westerlies to our our north.

Aside from a stronger wave over the northern plains, the features
aloft are very weak and difficult for the models to handle.
However, our atmosphere is warm/moist and easily destabilized
with lifting and/or diurnal heating. That being the case, will
look for more convection to develop along and south of the frontal
boundary today, but exactly how it plays out is uncertain.
Mesoscale features will play a significant role. Using a blended
solution from models, will expect convection to pick up as we move
into the day, with the greatest coverage over our northern and
eastern counties today. The activity should again diminish to some
extent as we move into the night.

The aforementioned upper level wave over the northern plains will
strengthen as it moves east and will lead to a larger scale trough
developing over the Midwest by Friday. This will support a
strengthening surface low tracking east over the Great Lakes on
Friday, which will propel a cold front east southeast into
Kentucky. The front will work in combination with the deepening
upper level trough and strengthening flow aloft to bring a
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms area wide on Friday.

Precipitable water should remain near or above two inches through
the short term period, which will allow thunderstorms to be
efficient rain producers. Should any training of cells occur,
there remains a possibility of localized hydro problems. Pockets
of higher instability could lead to some strong storms in the
afternoon or evening hours. Flow aloft will also be increasing
during the short term period, which would be more supportive of
some organization and a severe threat. Even so, it does not look
overly impressive.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2024

The forecast period begins with the CWA in the midst of FROPA as a
cold front is slowly moving through the area. A surface low moving
through the Great Lakes will drag the front through the area with
showers and thunderstorms occurring at the start of the period. The
front will gradually exit the region Saturday afternoon with high
pressure building in and remaining overhead for Sunday into Monday.

Models continue to hint at the continuation of an active pattern
into next week. However, in this evening/overnight model suite, long-
term deterministic models begin to diverge on how upper-level
forcing will play out for next week. The GFS continues with a dry
streak into Tuesday morning before dragging a cold front through the
Commonwealth late Tuesday evening. The ECMWF is a little more active
with PoP chances building in for Monday night before a surface low
moves through the Great Lakes and drags a surface boundary through
the area Tuesday afternoon. However, both models keep PoP chances
overhead through the remainder of the forecast period. Nonetheless,
with the discrepancies between deterministic runs, opted to stick
with a weighted NBM solution that keeps periods of showers and
storms through the remainder of the forecast period.

Overall, the period will highlighted with periods of showers and
thunderstorms that`ll bring much needed rain to the area. Also,
temperatures will return to more seasonal ranges as daytime highs in
the mid-80s to low-90s and overnight lows ranging from the upper-50s
to upper-60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2024

A few showers/thunderstorms were affecting the far northern
portion of the forecast area around KSYM at the start of the
period, while others in central KY were heading eastward. Although
new cells occasionally pop up, the activity continues on an
overall decline and is unlikely to affect TAF sites. Outside of
the precip or some spotty valley fog in far southeast KY, VFR
conditions are expected into the day.

Showers/thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the late
morning and last through the afternoon. They will not be
continuous at any given location, and it would be very difficult
to pin down timing. That being the case, VCTS was used in TAFs
with the realization that it is likely that at some point in time
there will be precipitation with sub-VFR conditions. Precipitation
is expected to diminish late in the day into the evening, leaving
mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL