Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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020 FXUS64 KLCH 240752 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 252 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 High pressure continues to be the main feature in our short-term forecast. High pressure is centered over south Louisiana and is slowly moving east. A second high, at 500 mb, is centered over Texas, with its associated ridge extending to the east. This pattern will keep our temperatures hot and humid, with highs reaching the mid- to upper 90s and heat index values well into the triple digits. Acadiana, the interior portions of Texas, and central Louisiana will hit heat advisory criteria of 108 this afternoon. Make sure to stay hydrated and cool today, as the heat will be dangerous! Pulse showers and storms will form in the afternoon, with more rain in Acadiana, where the ridge is weaker. Rain chances remain on the low side, with PoPs around 10 to 30 percent. Tuesday will be a repeat of today, with hot temperatures and isolated afternoon showers. But on Wednesday, our pattern starts to change as the ridge aloft begins to erode. Because of the lowering of the heights, northwest flow will begin to set up with a shortwave trough moving into the area at the same time. This feature will bring widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. Thankfully, neither CAPE nor shear values look impressive, so organized thunderstorms don`t look likely right now. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 At the surface, the pattern will continue to see weak high pressure ridging across the northern Gulf coast that will allow for low level southerly flow. This flow will bring in plenty of Gulf moisture with daily PWAT readings at or above 2 inches and Mean Relative Humidity from 1000-500 above 60 percent. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge will be centered off to the west with a weakness over the forecast area, and this should allow daytime heating to work with the rich Gulf moisture for a decent chance of diurnal showers and thunderstorms for Thursday to begin to period. The upper level ridge tries to build toward the east over the weekend, however consensus shows that the upper ridge will be rather flat and weak. Therefore, with high moisture values, a daily dose of showers and storms should continue through the weekend. Conditions away from the convection will be hot and very humid each day. Locations that do not receive any afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity or cooling convective outflows, will see max afternoon heat index readings around 105 degrees, with some possibly reaching or exceeding the heat advisory criteria of 108 degrees. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 No big changes from previous forecast. VFR is expected to prevail amid the continuing influence of SFC high pressure stretching west along the Gulf Coast and ridging aloft extending from the Four Corners into the NW Gulf. A convective cluster and/or its outflow associated with a back-door front sinking across the SE CONUS may combine with sea/bay breezes across Acadiana to create enhanced TSTM chances at KLFT/KARA late tomorrow afternoon into early evening as depicted by some CAM guidance and the HREF. This guidance has continued to depict rather spotty coverage, so have maintained the VCTS at both of these terminals. 13 && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Light onshore flow will continue through the week across the coastal waters. Waves will also be low, with a height between 1 and 4 feet, with the higher waves farther offshore. Coastal flooding remains a concern with tides above the 1.5-foot MHHW threshold. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 96 74 96 75 / 30 10 20 10 LCH 93 77 93 77 / 20 0 20 0 LFT 95 78 94 77 / 30 10 40 0 BPT 94 77 94 77 / 10 0 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029-033-044-045-055-152>154-252>254. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073- 074-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-259-260. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...13