518
FXUS64 KLIX 171739
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Large synoptic upper troughing over the eastern CONUS has
devoured the remnants of PCT8. This is also bringing what remnants
are left of old Francine into it as well. This whole mess has
developed two large trough lobes. One over the central part of the
country than turns eastward over southern Miss and then up into
the PCT8 remnants. The other is located across the central gulf
also spirals up into this same junction. The main forcing is
heating and with relatively low convective temps, we see storms
firing over the gulf waters during the morning and over land
during the day. This process will continue today but this trough
axis will slowly move to the coast by Wed as dry mid level air
continues to press southward. This just means that precip numbers
will begin to lower over the next few days. PW values are higher
along and south of this axis along with very low shear values.
Convective temps are around SST numbers as well and this all makes
for perfect conditions for waterspouts. Some of these are
impressive although not as formidable as their stronger land based
counterparts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Eventhough precip numbers will be lower for the next several days,
storms won`t be non-existant. There will still be a few around and
just like any given day with mid level dry air, there could be one
or two strong/severe storms out there. We will have a few easterly
waves that traverse the gulf late in the weekend into next week and
this will at least enhance rain chances during that time frame. The
large stacked high centered over the Baha Pen currently will begin
to move NE and center itself over southern TX by the end of this
week and we will also come under the influence of this high as well.
But there is some evidence of a very aggressive upper trough digging
deep into the country by the middle of next week which would bring
an actual cold front into the area possibly just outside the end
time of this fcast. We will see how this pans out. We are beginning
to move into that time of year that favor Caribbean tropical
development as well so we will keep our eyes on those areas as well
over the next several weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Through 20z, scattered thunderstorm activity will impact MSY and
NEW with periods of gusty winds, lightning strikes, IFR
visibilities and MVFR ceilings. The convective threat should
decrease at these terminals after 20z as the atmosphere becomes a
bit more stabilized, but have opted to include VCSH wording
through the evening hours at not only MSY and NEW, but also the
remainder of the terminals. Around 10z, boundary layer decoupling
is expected to take hold at several of the terminals, and this
will lead to another round of IFR or lower stratus and fog
development. MCB, ASD, HDC, BTR, and GPT will be most impacted by
these IFR conditions as the low level temperature inversion
allowing for the boundary layer decoupling will be most pronounced
at these locations. These low ceilings and reduced visibilties
will linger through 15z before gradually improving. PG

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

MCB may be the only IFR site for this morning as cigs will remain
locked around OVC004 through mid morning before breaking up. A few
terminals such as BTR and ASD may have cigs in the MVFR range for
the same time frame but all sites will move to VFR by mid morning.
Some TSRA will be around today but not in great numbers and may not
be enough to mention for a few terminals today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Winds will be quite light and variable at times over the next
several days. But as we get to the weekend, winds become more stable
and established from the east and rise to around 15kt. Winds and
seas will be higher near and in storms and waterspouts will be
possible with any of this activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  86  68  88 /  30  20   0  10
BTR  73  90  73  92 /  30  20   0  10
ASD  71  88  71  90 /  40  20   0  10
MSY  73  88  74  89 /  40  20   0  10
GPT  71  86  71  89 /  30  20   0  10
PQL  71  90  70  92 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...TE