957
FXUS64 KLIX 200449
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1149 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION, UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Continuing to see isolated convection over and south of lower
Plaquemines Parish that just refuses to die out. Looks to be a
weak shortwave diving down the east side of the Texas ridge that
is triggering it. Have updated CWF to continue mention of isolated
convection in a few marine zones for the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

All is quiet for the short term as the upper level ridge tries to
push east. While we do see some isolated showers out there, mainly
along the MS Coast, a lack of any deep layer moisture will
prevent anything further than a shower or two. PWs on this
morning`s 12z sounding were ~1.60" showing that moisture continues
to very gradually go down.

Into tomorrow we will see much of the same as the ridge continues
to try to push eastward further into our area. We likely see even
less shower activity tomorrow afternoon than we saw today. Did
adjust temperatures a tad, on par with the NBM50, to bring them
up a touch closer to model guidance. The low to mid 90s are likely
for the majority of the area tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper level ridging drapes across Texas and coming into Louisiana
will drift eastward early next week as a trough deepens from the
Great Lakes. There is uncertainty with specifics on the trough with
guidance though. But for the most part weak sfc high will keep PoPs
relatively low with the best chances at the end of the week around
20-30%ish.  Temperatures remain near seasonable in the upper 80s/low
90s with lows in the low 70s.

For the tropics, there is decent agreement on something forming in
the Caribbean somewhere in the 7-10 day range, but since there`s no
circulation for models to track on. The track will depend on a few
things, but primarily where exactly the circulation forms and the
aforementioned trough. Don`t get too caught up in specific runs or
models as there will still be a lot of uncertainty at this point of
the forecast.
-BL

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals as we approach 05z. There are
scattered to broken clouds between FL050 and FL080 at and around
KMSY, KNEW and KHUM. With a weak shortwave moving down the east
side of the Texas ridge, expect these clouds to eventually shift
offshore in the next several hours. There remains at least a minor
threat of visibility reductions around sunrise, but the greater
threat will be to the west of our terminals. Scattered cumulus
expected during the day on Friday, but any convection would entail
a very small percentage of areal coverage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Light wind and calm seas will remain in place over the next couple
days as high pressure remains centered over the waters. As this
system drifts inland over the weekend, we will see a more
established easterly flow around 10-15kts. This will bring seas up
to 2-3ft later into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  92  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  74  94  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  72  92  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  91  75  90 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  72  91  72  90 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  71  94  71  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...HL