Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
190 FXUS65 KLKN 220927 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 227 AM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry with well above normal temperatures through at least Monday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to portions of northern and central NV Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night. Weak near-zonal flow over the region is beginning to back slightly to the southwest as NV is squeezed between a center of low pressure off the BC coast and high pressure slowly building up from the desert southwest. While 500DM heights over NV see only minimal increases this weekend, the increased southwesterly flow over NV will result in significant increases to temperatures. Highs today will be 3-6 degrees warmer than highs yesterday, with most locations 10-15 degrees above normal for this date. On Sunday much of central NV and eastern Elko county will see temperatures rise an additional 1-4 degrees, though the northwestern portion of the CWA (including all of Humboldt county) will see temperatures cool a couple degrees on Sunday. Temperature-wise the main concern this weekend will be the lack of relief from the afternoon heat in and around West Wendover as the overnight temperatures only lower into the low to mid 70s. A Heat Advisory has been issued for SE Elko county which includes West Wendover. Low temperatures across the remainder of the CWA will cool into the 50s and 60s. Dry conditions are expected across the CWA this weekend. .LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday. The Silver State looks to remain between two major upper level features as the first week of Summer begins. The first main upper level feature is the upper level troughing over the Canadian Maritime, shortwave working through the strong westerly flow will help drive the occasional front into northern Nevada during the week but not really affecting temperatures. The second feature is a strong subtropical ridge of high pressure that will meander between New Mexico and the Rio Grande valley of western Texas. The surface component of this feature is the moist monsoonal flow that will continue to drift north over the four corners. This moisture will very slow work westward during the week, helping enhance the mid level moisture across Nevada. This flow will first help develop some convective buildups and occasional virga with an occasional lightning strike. By Wednesday mid level moisture will be concentrated by a weak shortwave trough transiting the southwesterly flow. This shortwave will push a boundary into central NV allowing for a low chance for a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms across eastern NV Wednesday evening and Thursday evening. By Friday the trough moves east and pushes the mid level moisture out of the area again leaving quiet conditions for Saturday. Temperatures will begin the week in the upper 80s to upper 90s, running about 10+ degrees above normal. Temperatures will cool a bit across northern Nevada with the passage of a front Friday into the upper 70s to upper 80s. Central Nevada will not feel any relief as highs remain in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Highs across the north will recover quickly back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by the weekend as the upper ridge shifts slightly westward. Overnight lows will also start above normal in the low 50s to 60s, a brief cool down into the mid 40s to mid 50s Friday across the north before returning to the low 50s to low 60s for the weekend. Winds for the extended will be generally out of the west to WSW for the week at 5 MPH to 15 MPH with the occasional gust up to 25 MPH. Winds will pick up across the north Thursday and Friday as the front moves through, with W to WNW winds of 10 MPH to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and dry weather are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Southwesterly breezes this afternoon will be the main concern with gusts generally around 20KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...No storm development this weekend, however hot and dry conditions are expected across the entire region, with highs generally in the 90s. Afternoon winds this weekend will mainly be in the 7-17mph range with gusts up to 25 mph. Slightly higher winds are expected over northern Humboldt county Sunday afternoon, with some of the higher terrain in zones 437 and 438 possibly seeing gusts reaching up into low 30mph range. && .HYDROLOGY...Temperatures trend warmer this weekend, with well above normal temperatures continuing into next week. Rises on some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain are expected over the next few days, but for now not expecting any new flooding as the snowpack is greatly diminished. Wildhorse Reservoir water level remains elevated from the spring snowmelt. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Wednesday Southeastern Elko County. && $$ 96/98/92/96