798
FXUS64 KLUB 162315
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
615 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Current conditions are not too dissimilar from this time yesterday,
the one exception being only a very light CU field is observed over
the northern half of the Rolling Plains. The CU field is over an
area of weak surface convergence with dewpoints near 60. As with
yesterday, some CAMs are hinting at very isolated convection across
the Rolling Plains and the southeastern Texas Panhandle this
afternoon and evening. Any storms that develop are expected to be
weak given low CAPE/low shear and will struggle to sustain
themselves after sunset.

The upper low currently over California will push slowly eastward
tonight into tomorrow afternoon. This will help to slowly kick the
upper ridge currently dominating the FA eastward and increase upper
diffluence across the region. Convection is expected to develop over
the higher terrain of New Mexico early to mid afternoon and push
eastward into the early evening. Models are in fairly decent
agreement by having convection near the Texas/New Mexico state line
by 00Z tomorrow. A surface low is progged to develop along the
Foothills of Wyoming and Colorado and will lead to breezy conditions
for much of the FA tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The extended forecast continues to feature periodic thunderstorm
chances, along with warm/hot afternoons through the week, and modest
cooling by Saturday or Sunday. Currently, it appears the best
chances/coverage of convection will favor Tuesday evening and late
Friday into Saturday, tied to the passage of a pair of upper lows.

The first storm system, discussed in the short term, and currently
spinning its way into the Great Basin, will be ejecting
northeastward over the northern Rockies Tuesday night. The bulk of
the synoptic scale lift from this upper low will be directed well to
our north, though a glancing shot of ascent will likely support a
line of storms moving our of east-central and northeast New Mexico
and into the western Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains
tomorrow evening. This activity will struggle to make much eastward
progress before tending to diminish south of the Texas Panhandle
late evening. That said, we could still see at least isolated to
scattered (increasingly elevated) convection try to survive/persist
into the central South Plains before diminishing altogether. Further
north, the activity could make it across a good chunk of our
northern counties before lifting north and/or diminishing. The
greatest hazards with this activity will be gusty outflow winds and
brief downpours.

Southwesterly flow aloft will persist over much of the High Plains
through the remainder of the week as the western trough quickly
reloads. The next upper low will dig into the Great Basin on
Thursday, before heading east and then northeast into the weekend.
Current projections bring this upper low out farther south than its
predecessor, though some of these details will still have to be
worked out over the next few days. Overall, the system is trending a
bit slower than 24 hours ago, which could delay its large scale
support and more widespread rain/storm chances locally until
Saturday (vs. Friday afternoon/night, as it appeared yesterday). In
fact the latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS keep all locations except
those near the TX/NM border dry Friday and Friday night. We`ll have
to further refine our forecast should these trends continue.
Regardless, drier and cooler conditions will follow the passage of
upper level system by the end of the extended forecast.

Backtracking, between the passage of the two upper lows to our
north, a tightening dryline will take shape over the central or
western zones Wednesday afternoon. Although large-scale support will
be lacking, strong heating and convergence along the dryline may be
enough to trigger isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
convection, as a number of the medium range NWP suggest. Should
storms be able to develop, SBCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear
around 30 knots would support some storm organization and a risk
of a strong/severe storm or two. The dryline is expected to be
farther west, more diffuse, with less instability and greater
inhibition Thursday afternoon/evening, making convection locally
less likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Isolated showers near KCDS will diminish very early in the TAF
period leaving VFR conditions for all terminals through Tuesday
afternoon. Winds should be relatively light overnight but will
increase mid-morning tomorrow.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07