Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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852 FXUS64 KLZK 260546 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1246 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Hazardous heat remains in place acrs the FA this aftn, w/ most locations seeing temps in excess of 95F, and heat index values of 105F to 110F or greater. An expansive diurnal Cu field was noted on recent vis sat imgry, w/ some agitated Cu developing into isolated showers/storms acrs Nrn AR. Expect incrsg covg of isolated precip thru the remainder of the aftn and evng hrs, w/ greatest chc PoPs over Nrn AR, and portions of Srn Cntrl to S/Ern AR. Heading into Wed, precip chcs are expected to incrs fm Nrn AR to Srn AR thru the day, as an apparent overnight MCS is progged to move in tandem w/ a small H500 shortwave/vort max Swrd thru the mid-MS River Valley. Most CAM guidance is still exhibiting a high spread on timing, and location of this feature, though a mean track of precip seems to suggest the convective complex should move thru at least portions of Nrn, to N/Ern, and Ern AR sometime Wed mrng to aftn. A number of factors wl play into potential heat risk on Wed, w/ an MCS expected to move thru portions of the FA, residual outflow boundaries, low-lvl Nrly steering flow, and asctd cloud cover would lkly keep area temperatures and heat index values subdued below advisory levels. Lower confidence currently lies acrs S/Wrn to Srn AR, where the impacts of precip and aforementioned factors may be less significant. For now, have opted to withhold issuing an advisory for Wed due to high uncertainty, but condns and future trends may warrant another advisory for at least, portions of Srn AR tomorrow aftn. Temps on Wed should trend back to near-normal values, w/ area readings in the upper 80s over Nrn AR to low 90s elsewhere. In the wake of the passing MCS, an asctd cdfrnt is expected to filter into the FA, lkly washing out over the Cntrl portion of the state, leaving behind weak N/Erly sfc flow. Temps wl lkly not be impacted much, w/ area readings staying near normal values, and dewpoints tapering down slightly, mostly acrs Nrn and N/Ern AR. Some precip chances wl linger acrs the S/E thru the day Thurs, but otherwise, dry and settled condns are expected amidst the brief mid- week cooldown. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 We will be marching back up to unseasonably mild temperatures by Thursday as the upper level ridge shifts from Texas to back over the midsouth by the end of the week. There still appears to be a weak front expected to drop into North Arkansas by late Saturday. This will provide cloud cover and an opportunity for showers beginning in North Arkansas late Saturday and spreading into Central Arkansas by Sunday before washing out over southern Arkansas on Sunday night. Models aren`t indicating more than a quarter to half an inch of rain for the entire forecast area. By Monday into Tuesday, a strong upper ridge will build and the extreme heat will return with even hotter temps forecasted than what we experienced this week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 An upper ridge is just west of Arkansas with northwest flow aloft over Arkansas. Rain chances will increase Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to dive south through the morning hours, affecting most sites into the afternoon. MVFR conditions may accompany the convection, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds should shift to the north behind the front and may gust to 20 kts near thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 90 70 90 71 / 70 20 10 0 Camden AR 93 71 93 73 / 60 30 10 0 Harrison AR 90 68 88 70 / 70 10 10 0 Hot Springs AR 93 71 93 73 / 50 30 10 10 Little Rock AR 92 74 92 75 / 70 30 10 0 Monticello AR 92 73 92 74 / 60 40 20 10 Mount Ida AR 92 70 92 72 / 50 30 10 0 Mountain Home AR 89 69 88 70 / 70 10 10 0 Newport AR 93 72 90 72 / 60 20 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 93 72 91 73 / 50 30 10 0 Russellville AR 92 73 92 73 / 70 20 10 0 Searcy AR 91 72 91 71 / 70 20 10 0 Stuttgart AR 91 73 90 74 / 70 30 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...72 LONG TERM....61 AVIATION...51