464
FXUS64 KMAF 281552
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1052 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

While the upper ridge overhead is being flattened some by a trough
cruising through the northern Rockies, this nudges the center of the
ridge (and low-level thermal ridge) more over our area. This and
somewhat less afternoon cumulus should allow temperatures to sneak a
few degrees hotter than what we saw yesterday. With this, will
maintain the current Heat Advisory in effect for this afternoon
across the western Low Rolling Plains, portions of the Trans Pecos,
Big Bend, and western high terrain. With the ridge center displaced
a bit further east on Saturday, the low level thermal ridge falls a
few degrees Celsius and high temperatures return to similar values
from what was seen yesterday, albeit still quite hot. Under the mild
subsidence from the ridge, the only storm chances remain confined to
the western high terrain and the higher elevations of southeastern
New Mexico both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

If you liked the weather over the next couple of days, then you`re
in luck because little changes during the long term period. The
doldrums of Summer have kicked into high gear as a largely stagnant
weather pattern remains in place across much of the southern CONUS.
The mid-level ridge remains over the southern Great Plains through
the weekend before it slides a bit further east towards the ArkLaTex
region early next week. With that said, a trough passes north of the
region late this weekend and early next week knocking temperatures
down a few degrees before they rebound once again through the
remainder of next week. Temperatures each afternoon remain in the
mid 90s to mid 100s for the majority each afternoon. Temperatures
each night provide little relief as the low-level jet maintains
mixing and keeps warm temperatures in place. Most locations struggle
to cool into the 70s. Rain chances look slim for all of the lower
elevations with large scale subsidence under the mid-level ridge.
The higher elevations maintain an isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm chance most afternoons with the aid of upslope moist
flow and orographic ascent. Without a pattern shift this is likely
what can be expected for the foreseeable future and beyond.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field this afternoon, w/bases
10-11 kft AGL, and another over SE NM near the end of the
forecast period, w/bases 5-6 kft AGL. Chances of convection are
slim-to-none.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               78 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 78 102  75  98 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                   76  98  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            76  99  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           75  94  70  90 /  30  20  10  10
Hobbs                    75 100  73  96 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                    67  98  65  94 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     77  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   77  99  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     80 103  78 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Borden-Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Lower Brewster
     County-Marfa Plateau-Mitchell-Pecos-Scurry-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44