548
ACUS11 KWNS 171826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171825
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-172030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 171825Z - 172030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across central to northern New
Mexico are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through
the afternoon hours. Trends are being monitored, and watch issuance
is anticipated soon.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 30-60 minutes, initially weak convection
across central to northern NM has shown signs of steady
intensification via increased lightning activity and steadily
cooling cloud-top temperatures. This uptick is largely being driven
by diurnal destabilization as temperatures warm into the low to mid
80s, which is eroding MLCIN and bolstering MLCAPE to around 1000
J/kg across northern NM. Further intensification downstream across
northeast/eastern NM and southeast CO appears likely as storms
migrate into a relatively more moist/buoyant environment where
southerly low-level winds are maintaining dewpoints in the upper 50s
to low 60s. 30-40 knot mid-level flow should spread east in tandem
with the deepening convection, which should provide adequate
deep-layer shear for organized convection. Based on recent radar
trends, a mix of semi-discrete clusters and supercells appears
likely with an attendant risk of large hail (most likely between 1.0
to 1.5 inches in diameter) and strong to severe winds. Watch
issuance will likely be needed soon as convection continues to
intensify and poses a greater severe threat.

..Moore/Gleason.. 09/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33400537 34760565 35270600 35800617 36550610 37160577
            37590516 37890430 38000351 37650305 36910283 36010290
            35080304 34410318 33980341 33580373 33310498 33400537