Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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342 FXUS64 KMEG 011643 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1135 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The latest surface analysis places a 1013mb surface low over northeast Missouri with a weak and nearly stationary front extending SSE into west Tennessee and north Mississippi. Aloft, a shortwave trough axis is analyzed near St. Louis and into SE MO. The aforementioned trough will continue to slowly drift eastward throughout the day. This will keep the axis of scattered showers and thunderstorms confined mainly to areas near the Tennessee River. With heavy cloud cover over that region, instability will be low enough to preclude any deep moist convection. The main threat will continue to be heavy rainfall and possibly some gusty winds. After the trough exits the region tonight, main rainfree and humid conditions look to persist across the much of the area on Sunday. The current forecast is on track with no big changes needed at this time. High temperatures will peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. AC3 && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Following widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning, additional showers and thunderstorms will redevelop later today, mainly east of the Mississippi River. Rainfall coverage should be considerably less than on Friday. Warm and humid conditions will continue through the middle of next week, which will support additional showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will pass through the Midsouth Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms, followed by lower humidity and drier conditions late next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms were lifting through the Midsouth at discussion time. This convection was rooted in an elevated layer, in advance of a deamplifying upper trough lifting through MO. A shortwave was evident on radar and GOES imagery over eastern AR, rotating around the main trough to the the north. Convection will lift east with the deamplifying trough today, with areas east of the MS River seeing the greatest potential for redevelopment in the heat of the day. For tonight, wet ground, partial clearing and light winds will provide favorable conditions for patchy fog development. Low amplitude upper level ridging will provide mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures on Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon. With weak shear, confidence on coverage and location of thunderstorms is limited. Most areas will see no rainfall Sunday. The pattern will become more unsettled Monday and Tuesday, as the upper ridge axis lifts to our east. A upper trough, perhaps convectively-reinforced, will lift through the Ozarks, producing sufficient height falls over the Midsouth to aid in thunderstorm organization and persistence. Medium range models depict a more pronounced upper trough rotating through the Ozarks on Tuesday. The Monday and Tuesday systems will encounter weakly-capped, convectively unstable air over the Midsouth, with PWAT ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches. A relatively deep upper level low will form over the Great Lakes late Wednesday into early Thursday. Upper level flow will transition to the northwest across the Midsouth on Wednesday, with pre-frontal moisture pooling contributing to PWAT values near 2 inches. The cold front will push through the Midsouth late Wednesday night and early Thursday, in tandem with strengthening northwest flow aloft. This front will provide focus showers and thunderstorms, before fair weather and lower humidity arrive Friday and Saturday. PWB && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Persistent convective activity is expected to result in widespread IFR CIGS across the airspace this morning. Confidence in thunderstorm development is greatest at TUP and to some degree at MKL where convection allowing models have hinted at a bit more vigorous redevelopment. Conditions are expected to gradually improve to MVFR later today, with further improvement to VFR at most sites by the evening hours. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...JPR