580
FXUS64 KMEG 271613
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1113 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

GOES-16 satellite trends indicate an upper-level ridge located
over the Southwest United States and Southern Plains. Meanwhile, a
longwave upper-level trough axis extends from Hudson Bay back
through Central Alabama and Mississippi. Late morning surface
analysis places a surface low over Central Alabama with a quasi-
stationary boundary extending west into Central Mississippi and
into northeast Texas. KGWX WSR-88D radar trends show isolated to
scattered rain showers on the back side of the low over northeast
Mississippi. Latest mesoanalysis yields surface-based CAPE values
around 1500 J/kg, effective shear generally less than 25 kts, and
very poor mid-level lapse rates. Confidence in isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm potential into the afternoon remains very low
at best. Current forecast for the remainder of today is in good
shape and no changes needed at this time.

CJC

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Brief "cool down" today, with temps becoming hot and humid once
again this weekend and into much of next week. Isolated to
scattered chances for thunderstorms continue each day, with the
next widespread chance likely not coming until Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Surface low and frontal boundary that brought yesterday`s
thunderstorms currently sits just to our south, allowing some
"cooler" and drier air to move into the area. Boundary will
slowly continue to sag southward today, but those across our
southeastern counties could still see some scattered showers and
thunderstorms by the afternoon. Nonetheless, highs across the area
will be closer to normal today, generally in the upper 80s.
Surface winds will quickly become southerly overnight, allowing
WAA and moisture to return to the area tomorrow and into the
weekend. Could see some diurnally driven thunderstorm activity
tomorrow and Saturday, but coverage will likely remain isolated to
scattered. Temps will quickly rebound into the mid 90s Saturday
with dew point temps in the mid 70s. As such, a Heat Advisory may
be needed for much of the area and especially across the Delta.
Sunday will start off similar to Saturday before a decaying MCS
will push through. Still some question as to when the MCS will
move through which will play a role in if any additional heat
headlines will be needed or not for Sunday. Environment looks
fairly similar to what we have seen the past few days, so won`t
rule out a strong storm or two as the boundary moves through the
area.

Upper-level ridge will move across the region by Monday, aiding to
knock PoPs back for a few days and allowing temps to warm back
into the mid to upper 90s likely by Tuesday. This coupled with
soupy dew point temperatures mean heat headlines could be needed
once again into midweek. As for your way too early 4th of July
forecast, things look wet for some and pretty toasty for all.
Will see how things evolve over the next few days as more models
come into range and leave it at that for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Gradual improvement to VFR CIGs will occur through midday with
skies clearing from west to east. A few CAMs depict scattered
shower development near TUP this afternoon. However, confidence in
coverage and intensity is low, so opted to leave precip out of
TAF. Otherwise, gusty north winds will veer south overnight.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ANS