149
FXUS62 KMFL 281625
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1225 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Mid level ridging will continue to build over the Florida
Peninsula throughout the rest of today and heading into Saturday.
At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic will push
closer to the region during this time frame. This will help to
shift the winds from a south southeasterly direction today to a
more easterly direction heading into Saturday. With mid level
ridging building across the area, the main driver for shower and
thunderstorm development will be the sea breezes as they push
inland. With a rather light south to southeasterly wind flow
today, showers and thunderstorms will be slow moving throughout
the day. With the potential for convection to develop over
portions of the east coast metro areas this afternoon, localized
flooding will be possible due to the slow motion of the showers
and thunderstorms. With a lack of mid to upper level support,
chances for strong thunderstorm development will remain rather
limited this afternoon. High temperatures today will rise into the
lower to mid 90s across most areas. Heat index values will be
even hotter as they will range between 105 and 110 through the
afternoon hours.

Heading into Saturday, easterly wind flow may increase a
little bit across the region as the surface ridge axis pushes
closer to the region. Sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries
will still be the main driver for shower and thunderstorm
development, however, with a bit more of an easterly wind flow in
place, the highest chances of convection will push over the
interior and west coast as the day progresses. Strong thunderstorm
development will still remain rather limited due to lack of mid
to upper level support. High temperatures will rise into the lower
90s across the east coast metro areas, and into the mid 90s
across the interior portions of Southwest Florida. Heat index
values will once again rise to 105 or higher especially across the
interior sections.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

As we round out the weekend, the synoptic pattern will continue
to evolve, as the development of upper-level ridging expands over
the deep South. This ridge will cause winds to prevail from the
south overnight, then veer to the east-southeast throughout the
remainder of the weekend.

During this period, mesoscale dynamics will be crucial in
convective initiation, generally overruling synoptic forcing for
ascent (which will be meager through much of the week). Near-
normal precipitable water (PWAT) values will support the daily
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The steady
easterly surface flow will establish a typical convective pattern:
isolated showers or thunderstorms over the East Coast Metro area
in the morning, increasing in coverage and shifting towards the
interior and Gulf Coast areas during the afternoon and early
evening. Localized flooding remains a primary concern due to the
weak flow pattern.

In the long term, temperatures are expected to remain near or
slightly above seasonal averages. Highs will range from the upper
80s to low 90s, with peak heat indices reaching into the triple
digits. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast
period. Winds will increase out of the SE this afternoon across
the east coast terminals as the sea breeze pushes inland.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop this
afternoon near the terminals creating periods of sub-VFR
conditions. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WSW this
afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Most of the convection will
gradually diminsh this evening as winds become light and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A gentle to moderate south to southeasterly wind flow this
afternoon across the local waters will gradually become more
easterly heading into the upcoming weekend. Seas across the
Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the
weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds and waves could
be locally higher in and around showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  93  80  88 /  20  50  30  60
West Kendall     76  92  78  89 /  20  40  30  60
Opa-Locka        78  93  79  90 /  20  50  30  60
Homestead        78  90  79  88 /  20  40  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  78  91  80  88 /  20  40  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  79  91  80  88 /  20  50  30  60
Pembroke Pines   79  92  81  91 /  30  50  30  60
West Palm Beach  78  91  79  89 /  20  50  30  50
Boca Raton       78  89  80  89 /  20  50  30  50
Naples           78  93  78  91 /  30  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ067>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...CWC