Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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887 FXUS62 KMFL 222348 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 748 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Most of the showers and thunderstorms from earlier this afternoon have either dissipated or are in the process of doing so, except for an outflow boundary moving north over Palm Beach County which will likely trigger a few showers or thunderstorms through about 10 PM or so. Interior and Gulf coast areas will be mostly dry tonight, but over the east coast metro areas and local Atlantic waters we expect showers and scattered thunderstorms to redevelop after midnight as a continued influx of moisture into the region will be accompanied by localized coastal convergence of low level winds and an axis of low level instability/high theta-e values. In addition, a mid-level trough will linger along the Florida east coast and contribute to the forcing for convection. With the high levels of moisture and slow storm motion, localized flooding is a possibility overnight into Sunday morning over the east coast metro areas. PoPs over the east coast metro and local Atlantic waters for tonight were raised slightly from the previous forecast, mainly in the 50-60% range. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Strong mid level ridging remains centered over the Deep South this afternoon while a weakness in this ridge remains in place on the eastern side in the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure in the western Atlantic extends back towards South Florida as a weakening area of low pressure pushes into Southeastern Georgia. With lack of any synoptic scale forcing, shower and thunderstorm development will be sea breeze driven throughout the rest of today. Deep tropical moisture continues to filter into the region as the latest forecast soundings show PWAT values rising up to 2.1 to 2.3 inches later this afternoon. This will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop this afternoon and into this evening. With a weak steering flow in place, storm motion will be slow this afternoon. The general east to southeasterly wind flow will allow for the east coast sea breeze to push further inland, shifting the focus of convection over to the interior and west as the afternoon progresses into the evening hours. Enough instability remains in place with diurnal heating to support a strong thunderstorm or two mainly over the interior sections this afternoon into the evening containing gusty winds and heavy downpours. While most of the convection will dissipate heading into the late evening hours over land, additional shower and thunderstorm development will be possible over the local waters as well as the as the east coast overnight. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to around 80 across the east coast metro areas. Heading into Sunday, mid level ridging across the Gulf Coast states and the Southeast will slowly start to break down as an amplifying mid level trough dives down across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This will cause the surface high in the western Atlantic to retreat further to the east which will weaken the east to southeasterly wind flow across the region even further. With deep tropical moisture still in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop once again along the sea breezes as they push inland. Storm motion will once again be slow due to the weak steering flow, however, convection will slowly try to push towards the interior and west during the afternoon and evening hours. With a bit more instability in place as well as the addition of some mid to upper level forcing as the ridge starts to break down, some strong thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out later in the afternoon. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours with the highest chances remaining over the interior sections. High temperatures will generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The week kicks off with the continuation of the unsettled pattern as the trough continues over the eastern seaboard of the United States. On Monday, the amplified trough extending south into Florida will come into phase with a plume of tropical moisture over the Greater Antilles and southern Florida. The trough axis deamplifies as it moves east on Tuesday as additional easterly moisture arrives over southern Florida. A second trough amplifies as it enters the southeastern United States on Wednesday into Thursday while another burst of easterly tropical moisture moves across the Caribbean to close out the week. Overall, the pattern for hot days and diurnally driven convection will remain but the additional bursts of tropical moisture and presence of low pressure around the region could permit multiple rounds of convection which could lead to localized flooding from heavy rainfall in areas that become saturated. Overnight minimum temperatures, particularly along the east coast metro areas where onshore flow will persist, will struggle to drop below 80 for large portions of the nights this week. Heat index values will routinely reach the triple digits each day with some pockets reaching 105 to 108 range by mid to late week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 With the exception of KPBI where TSRA could approach the terminal through 04z, mainly dry and VFR conditions expected through 06z. After 06z, SHRA/TSRA expected to redevelop over the PBI-FLL-MIA corridor, with likely periods of TEMPO MVFR through at least 12z. VCTS at east coast terminals may need to be updated to include TS at terminals in subsequent updates. SHRA/TSRA expected to gradually shift to interior/west coast after 16z Sunday. Light winds tonight, then SE 10-12 knots after 15z Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue across the local waters through the rest of the weekend. These winds will gradually veer and become more southerly heading into the early and middle portion of the week. Seas across the Atlantic will remain at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the local waters each day and could result in locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic Coast beaches through this evening. The risk of rip currents will be at moderate levels Sunday and Monday, then diminsh for all South Florida beaches heading into the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 89 79 89 / 60 60 30 60 West Kendall 77 90 76 89 / 60 60 30 60 Opa-Locka 78 90 78 90 / 60 60 30 60 Homestead 78 88 78 89 / 60 60 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 78 88 79 87 / 60 60 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 77 88 79 88 / 70 60 30 60 Pembroke Pines 78 91 79 91 / 60 60 30 60 West Palm Beach 77 88 78 89 / 50 60 30 60 Boca Raton 78 88 78 89 / 60 60 30 60 Naples 76 90 76 89 / 40 70 40 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Molleda LONG TERM....RAG AVIATION...Molleda