129
FXUS62 KMHX 010050
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
850 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Humid conditions persist this evening and tonight ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front will move through the area
tomorrow morning with high pressure building back into the area
from the north on Tuesday. Oppressive heat and humidity build
back in over the second half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 8 PM Sun...Key Messages:
*Heat advisory has ended, with apparent temperatures falling to
 near 90 degrees at the time of this update
*Severe weather threat has decreased through tonight, but
 remains non-zero.
*Flash flooding concerns have decreased through tonight.

Ahead of the cold front, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms have blossomed along a pre-frontal trough in
central and NE NC and are spreading eastward this evening. So
far, meager wind shear and weak forcing has prevented widespread
storm organization along this trough in our forecast area.
MLCAPEs have dropped to near 2000J/kg with the help of overcast
skies from the spreading of anvils today. As we get into
tonight, MLCAPE will continue gradually decreasing. Shear will
increase a tad for NE portions of the CWA as the prefrontal
trough sags a bit further south, which could increase shower and
tstorm coverage ahead of the frontal passage. Once we transition
to early morning tomorrow, coverage will increase substantially
along the cold front as it makes its way through the CWA. Still
keeping Likely/Categorical PoPs for this frontal passage. While
strong gusts can`t be ruled out, upper level support is
relatively low, resulting in a lower severe threat with the
frontal convection.

Latest sounding shows PWATs of 2.20", suggesting heavy rain is
still likely in the stronger storms through the duration of the
event. Storm motion is expected to pick up a tad tonight
however, which will limit the potential for training or
stationary storms. For this reason, flash flooding concerns have
gone down.

Temperatures will remain warm and muggy ahead of the front, and
then drop sharply into the lower 70s behind the front which
will likely make it to the southern Pamlico Sound and US 70
corridor by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 830PM Sunday...No major changes with this forecast update.
Decreased thunder and PoP chances in the morning and early
afternoon hours behind the cold front with more stable
conditions setting up right behind the boundary.

Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Sun...The cold front will be
located across southern NC tomorrow morning, and will eventually
push offshore in the afternoon. Widespread areas of rain and
thunderstorms will persist across the southern half of Eastern
NC into the afternoon, while cooler and drier air begins to move
in to northern NC. There is some uncertainty how quickly the
front will push offshore and if a sea breeze might hold it up
along the coast. Eventually, drier and more stable air will win
out and reach the southern coast which will gradually bring an
end to precip late in the day. Temperatures will be well below
normal thanks to widespread cloud cover most of the day across
the southern coast, and the influx of cooler and drier air
farther north. Have highs in the mid to upper 70s for most
locations except for the norther coastal plain where some
afternoon sun will boost temps into the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sun...

KEY MESSAGES:

Cooler than average temps are forecast on Tue and Wed

Oppressive heat and humidity return Fri through Sun

Monday Night through Wed...Cold front will be well offshore by
Mon evening with high pressure ridging building in from the
north and west overnight. Outside of a few lingering showers
along the Crystal Coast and OBX and a few rumbles of thunder
offshore early Mon evening, the area should remain relatively
dry Mon night with cloud cover clearing from north to south
through the night. Will have a steady but light NE wind through
the evening as well behind the departing front which should
limit any potential fog threat. Cooler temps persist behind this
frontal passage as well with lows Mon night getting down into
the upper 50s to low 60s inland, and upper 60s to near 70 along
the OBX.

Ridging gradually slides E`wards Tue and Wed bringing fair weather
to ENC as well as below avg temps. Highs get into the mid to upper
80s and lows get into the 60s each night. With dewpoints much lower
behind the front as well, it will feel more comfortable outside.

Thurs through Sat...Upper ridging will remain overhead into next
weekend as any upper level troughs struggle to dig S`wards. At the
surface, high pressure ridging will continue to push further
offshore allowing return flow to resume across ENC. This will bring
a return to oppressive temps and humidity especially Fri and Sat
which could threaten to bring more heat related impacts to the area
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 845 PM Sun...VFR conditions currently across the
terminals, with drops to MVFR in areas of more intense
convection. Another round of more widespread frontally- forced
convection will begin to approach the terminals from the north
near or shortly after 6z. This band has higher probabilities of
more predominant MVFR (80-90% chance) and potentially IFR cigs
(40-50%) associated with it. Decided to put predominant MVFR
with SCT IFR CIGS and MVFR VIS for this TAF issuance. Any IFR
that develops is expected to be right along the frontally forced
line of convection, and should be shorter in duration. The
front will move through Monday morning, and expect sub- VFR
conditions(low stratus, rain and reduced vsbys) to linger
through mid morning and early afternoon, grad improving to VFR
from north to south. SW winds will quickly shift behind the
front Mon morning, becoming NNE gusting to 15-20 kt through the
afternoon.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 320 PM Sun...A return to primarily VFR conditions is then
forcast Mon night into the end of the period as high pressure
ridging sets up overhead.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Marginal Small Craft conditions will continue
this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front with SW winds
15-20 kts, and frequent gusts to 25 kts. Tonight, winds will
weaken slightly right ahead of the front, and then turn to the
N/NE behind the front early tomorrow morning from north to
south across the coastal waters. N/NE winds will then strengthen
tomorrow morning to 15-25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts across
the coastal waters and eastern sounds with Small Craft
conditions again developing. Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft, though
could occasionally rise to 6 ft across the central waters
tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sun...Front should push offshore and out to sea by
Mon night with gusty winds quickly diminishing to 10 to 15 kts
and gusts to 20 kts by Tue morning ending SCAs across our
waters. Fair weather and benign boating conditions are then
forecast from Tue to the end of the period. Winds will continue
to ease Tue and Wed as high pressure ridging extends over the
our waters eventually down to 5 to 10 kts while veering to an
easterly direction by Wed. WInds eventually become S`rly at
10-15 kts by Thurs as ridging shifts E.

Lingering 4-6 ft seas likely Monday night. As we get into Tue
and beyond, as the winds ease seas will also lower down to 2 to
4 ft by Tue and remain at these heights into the end of the
period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/RJ
SHORT TERM...SGK/RJ
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...SGK/MS/RCF