886
FXUS64 KMOB 272108
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
408 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

An active summertime pattern will continue through the night and
into the day on Friday. Subtle troughing remains in place over the
southeastern US with upper ridging to our west. The main player
at the surface is a weak surface trough/boundary that is currently
located along the I-65 corridor. We are currently in a brief
hiatus from showers and storms this afternoon; however, we expect
activity to perk up as we approach sunset along the I-65 corridor.
Storms should push more offshore overnight along the typical land
breeze circulation. Friday will be mostly a rinse and repeat of
today with mid-morning storms along the coast transitioning to
storms along the gradually drifting surface boundary by the
afternoon. The main threats could be a locally damaging wind gust
and heavy rainfall with the strongest of storms. Temperatures will
remain warm but given the potential for showers and storms
earlier in the day, temperatures will not go full on surface of
the sun. That heat comes later in the week. Expect heat indices to
range in the 100 to 105 range during the afternoon tomorrow. BB/03


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

An unsettled weather pattern will continue across our region
through the weekend. A weak upper level low/inverted trough axis
will remain oriented across the northern Gulf Coast region on
Friday before shifting further southwest into the Gulf and
gradually becoming diffuse Friday night into Saturday. Upper level
ridging will then gradually build eastward across much of the
deep south through the remainder of the weekend. A plume of deep
layer moisture will remain entrenched over our forecast area
through the weekend. The combination of the deep moisture and
available instability will support a continued good chance of
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with the greatest
coverage expected during the daytime hours. A few storms could
pulse strong at times with gusty winds/frequent lightning/heavy
rainfall. Outside of storm development, temperatures will remain
hot through the weekend, especially by Sunday as the ridge builds
overhead. Highs in the lower to mid 90s along with dewpoints in
the 70s will likely result in potential heat impacts by Sunday
afternoon where maximum heat indices could range between 105-111
degrees. A Heat Advisory may become necessary again late this
weekend. /21

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Upper level high pressure will continue to strengthen and build
eastward across the Mississippi Valley and Deep South through most
of next week. Hot and humid conditions are expected each day
Monday-Thursday with highs reaching into the 90s and maximum heat
index values potentially reaching up to 105-110 degrees each
afternoon. Additional Heat Advisories may become necessary.
Diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity will continue each day
through the extended period with plentiful moisture and
instability in place, but overall coverage may trend more isolated
to scattered nature Tuesday-Thursday as the ridge builds into our
region. /21

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A moderate westerly to southwesterly flow is expected to continue
through Friday, with winds decreasing to light by Saturday. For
Saturday night and into early next week, a light diurnal flow
pattern develops, with west to northwest flow developing each
night and a southwesterly flow developing each afternoon.
Conditions have been favorable each morning for waterspouts given
the active pattern and surface boundary. This will likely continue
with any storms that develop near the coast on Friday. BB/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  90  76  92  76  94  76  95 /  60  70  40  60  20  60  40  60
Pensacola   78  89  79  91  78  93  78  93 /  70  70  40  50  30  70  50  70
Destin      79  89  80  90  80  92  79  92 /  70  70  40  50  30  70  50  70
Evergreen   72  91  74  91  73  93  73  95 /  60  70  20  70  20  70  30  60
Waynesboro  71  91  73  93  73  93  73  95 /  40  70  20  60  20  70  30  40
Camden      71  90  73  91  73  91  73  94 /  30  60  20  70  20  70  30  40
Crestview   74  91  74  94  75  96  74  96 /  50  70  30  60  20  70  40  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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