Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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518 AWUS01 KWNH 292323 FFGMPD ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-300522- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0514 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 722 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Areas affected...North-Central to Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Central/Southern MO...Far Northern AR Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 292322Z - 300522Z SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will organize and tend to expand in coverage going into the evening hours. Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible. DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows strong cold-topped convection developing and gradually expanding in coverage across areas of southeast KS and into central MO. The activity is forming along and just south of a cold front as multiple waves of low pressure advance east-northeast along it. A moist and very unstable airmass is in place with MLCAPE values of 3500 to 4500 J/kg and PWs locally over 2 inches, and this coupled with at least modest shear and favorable low-level convergence along the front should yield additional expansion of convective clusters heading into the evening hours. Initially the main focus will be on areas of southeast KS and central/southern MO, but portions of north-central to northeast OK and eventually far northern AR will likely see the arrival of convection since the overall southward advance of the cold front coupled with some localized cold pool activity should allow the convection to lose some latitude with time. Rainfall rates with the stronger storms are expected to reach 2 to 2.5 inches/hour, and with slow cell-motions overall, this may allow for some short-term totals to reach as high as 3 to 5 inches. The 12Z/18Z HREF guidance supports these totals locally, and suggest some low probabilities (20 to 40 percent) of seeing 3-hour FFG exceedances. Therefore, some isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding may materialize heading into the evening hours as this convection continues to organize and expand in coverage. Orrison ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF... TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38839132 38539048 37378989 36199044 36179412 35679638 35739826 36349854 37429652 37749563 38069406 38449270