056
FXUS61 KOKX 270949
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
549 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds across the region late today and
into Friday. A warm front lifts north Saturday followed by a
cold front on Sunday. High pressure returns for the a start of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered showers come to an end as a cold front works its way
across the area. Made some minor updates to current conditions
to better reflect latest observation trends.

Dry weather is expected today, but could still see some
lingering cloud cover until mid/late afternoon today. High
pressure then builds slowly east across the northeast.

Highs will be in the low to upper 80s today with tonight lows
dropping into the mid 50s to mid 60s under clear skies with
northerly flow around 5-10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region through much of Friday, before
starting to shift east into the New England coast late Friday into
Friday night. This will result in abundant sunshine with
temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 and dewpoints in the 40s.
Temperatures Friday night will be in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will pass off the New England Coast Friday night,
allowing a warm front to lift through on Saturday. An unsettled
but very warm period will set up for Saturday night and Sunday
as a prefrontal trough and cold front move through, bringing
shower/tstms. The heat index may approach or surpass 95, mainly
in NE NJ and perhaps also in NYC and along the north shore of
Long Island, with temps approaching 90 and dewpoints in the
lower 70s, but it is possible that limited daytime heating and
better vertical mixing could lead to cooler temps and/or lower
dewpoints so this remains uncertain, and at any rate would last
for only one day.

With the exception of Sunday, and possibly next Wednesday ahead
of another cold front when temps will again be on the rise,
temps should be close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front, moving into the lower Hudson Valley at 07Z, passes
through the region early this morning. A secondary cold front passes
slowly through the region during the afternoon.
Otherwise, d
Thunderstorms have moved to the east of the area, along with a pre
frontal trough. An area of showers remains across much of the area
ahead of the cold front, and will be ending with the frontal passage.

VFR in the showers, with brief MVFR possible. However, there is a
chance of MVFR stratus toward morning, although confidence is low.

winds have become light westerly, and will shift more to NW and
increase to around 10 kt behind the cold front. Increasing WNW flow
this afternoon 10-15G20-25kt, and sea breeze development likely
shifts coastal terminals S or SW. Gusts end this evening and winds
become more northerly, generally less than 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible overnight due to possible stratus 1K - 2K ft.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late Thursday night - Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during
the afternoon, becoming likely at night with MVFR.

Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms likely, MVFR likely, IFR possible.

Monday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas will remain below advisory level criteria through Friday.

There is the potential for SCA cond mainly on the ocean from Sat
night into Sunday as SW flow increases, with gusts up to 25 kt and
significant wave heights above 5 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns today through the beginning of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk at all local Atlantic facing
beaches today. The rip current risk lowers to moderate on
Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$