039
FXUS66 KOTX 252131
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
231 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A calm, mild overnight will be followed by an an incoming system.
A cold front arrives Wednesday with wind and storms that last
into Thursday. Then the cycle repeats. Mild and dry weather is
likely for Friday followed by heat Saturday and then more wind and
storms for Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thursday: Tonight will generally be calm and mild
with lows in the 50s. An incoming low will bring a big shift to
the pattern to the region. Ensembles are good agreement on the
timing and strength of the front. A prefrontal wave is expected
Wednesday morning with thunder potential for most of eastern
Washington particularly along the the Cascades. The probability
of thunder is at least 12%. Through the day, the thunder threat
will lessen over the Basin but remain over the Cascades and
northern mountains through the afternoon. Northern Cascades are
being highlighted with the best potential for thunderstorms. The
parameters are pointing to potential of stronger thunderstorm
development in the area. These storms could produce heavy
downpours, small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Winds
will be breezy across the Basin with sustained in the teens and
gusts into the low 30s. Luckily relative humidities will be on the
upswing with the front to lessen the fire concerns. Showers and
potential thunder remain in these areas through Thursday as the
Low continues to slide through region. The main concern with the
storms will be lightning. High temperatures will take a decent dip
between the two days. Highs will be in the 80s and low 90s for
Wednesday and drop into the 70s for Thursday. Overnight lows will
continue to be in the 40s and low 50s. /JDC

Friday through Tuesday: A progressive weather pattern will continue
into this weekend and the beginning of next week with a series of
short-lived ridges and troughs keeping plenty of variety in the
forecast. Friday will be clear and mainly dry with light winds and
mild temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s thanks to weak upper-
level ridging. A slight (15 to 30 percent) chance of showers will
linger in far northern WA and ID along the Canadian border, but for
the rest of the region, precip chances will be near zero. The ridge
will remain over the region into Saturday, allowing temperatures to
warm into the low 80s to 90. These will be the highest temperatures
we`ll see through at least the first half of next week. Heading into
Sunday, the ridge will push eastward into Montana and a shortwave
trough will move in behind it, bringing a subtle cooling trend
through Monday and Tuesday along with a return of breezy winds,
thunderstorms, and widespread chances for showers. Areas with the
highest chances for thunderstorms include the Northern Mountains,
Spokane area, and the ID Panhandle. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected at TAF sites. Winds mostly
light and terrain driven. Increasing high to mid clouds toward
end of TAF period as next system begins to breach the Cascades
crest. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the region
starting middle of Wednesday and lasting through the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. Low
confidence on thunderstorms impacting TAF sites.
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        57  84  53  72  49  76 /   0  20  10  40  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  56  83  53  67  48  73 /   0  20  20  50  20   0
Pullman        57  82  51  67  48  73 /   0  10  10  30  10   0
Lewiston       65  92  60  77  56  83 /   0  10  10  20  10   0
Colville       48  80  45  68  40  74 /   0  50  60  80  20  10
Sandpoint      52  79  50  63  46  71 /   0  20  40  80  40  10
Kellogg        60  84  55  63  51  69 /   0  20  20  60  30  10
Moses Lake     60  87  53  78  50  81 /   0  40  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      65  82  57  73  55  80 /   0  50   0  10   0   0
Omak           59  81  53  77  50  82 /   0  60  30  20   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$