104
FXUS63 KPAH 162322
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
622 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated shower or storm will be possible over southeast
  Missouri through late afternoon.

- Warm and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the week
  into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Clouds have broken up over all southeast Missouri this
afternoon, which should allow for some decent heating to go with
upper 60 dewpoints. This air mass may be just juicy enough to
squeeze out a couple of showers or thunderstorms late this
afternoon. Shear is weak, so brief heavy downpours and lightning
will be the primary concerns.

High pressure aloft will build over the region through Tuesday,
as surface high pressure brings drier and slightly less hot air
to the region. The ridge will get pinched between a cut off low
over the Appalachians and southwesterly flow over the Plains
over the second half of the week. Eventually, that southwesterly
flow will attempt to push eastward this weekend, and try to push
some showers into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The
NBM PoPs (20-30%) begin on Sunday and continue into next Monday,
but seem overdone at this time. There certainly aren`t any signs
of drought busting rains in the foreseeable future.

As for temperatures, it still looks like the coolest air will be
Tuesday and Tuesday night and that will still be near, if not
slightly above normal. Then, temperatures warm slightly heading
into next weekend. Winds will remain light, as the surface high
proves difficult to move, so no major increase in humidity is
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Main aviation concern tonight will be fog potential at CGI and
potentially MVN. Otherwise, winds should subside shortly and
remain light tonight. VFR expected on Tuesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...AD