239
FXUS65 KPIH 190935
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
335 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
For the next several days, southeast Idaho will remain positioned in
between 3 different low pressure systems...none of which will be
close enough to result in any significant weather impacts locally.
The result will be dry, mostly sunny/clear conditions with only
light winds, and forecast blends such as the NBM continue to trend
drier into this solution. Patchy fog is expected this AM, but that
risk will diminish the next couple mornings too as the sfc airmass
dries out following recent rainfall. Expect high temperatures to
gain a few degrees each day, generally mid-60s to low-70s. 01

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
Dry northwest flow is expected through the weekend, though weak
shortwave is expected to drop through Idaho Sunday night/Monday.
Most of the precipitation associated with this feature should
remain north of the state, but a few showers could be possible
mainly across higher elevations. Deterministic GFS/ECMWF both
shift a sharply amplified ridge across the Great
Basin/Intermountain West Tuesday, with almost an omega-block look
to the pattern. The two models differ in how the ridge progresses
east, but in general, both trend toward amplifying a trough along
the coast, shifting flow aloft over East Idaho toward
south/southwest flow. The GFS is more progressive with this
feature, while the ECMWF wobbles a closed low around the four-
corners region, which ultimately slow the progression of the
Pacific trough. Overall, clusters follow the general pattern
outlined above through Tuesday, with minor differences in timing
and strength. Agreement breaks down in the latter portions of the
extended period, highlighting the uncertainty in the pattern
change. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...
Satellite imagery early this morning shows band of mainly MVFR
clouds ever so slowly shifting east across the Snake Plain and
eastern highlands. Pockets of fog do exist per area web cams, and
can`t rule out the potential just yet at either KDIJ or KIDA
through about 15Z. The remaining terminals should be out of the
threat. Expect all sites to clear to VFR through the day, with VFR
expected through tonight. DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier and slightly warmer trend will settle in today while East
Idaho remains in between two storm systems, one departing to the
northeast and the other remaining well south of the region. A very
weak feature passes on Friday, but the only impact should be an
increase in winds through the Snake Plain and some higher
elevations. Otherwise, upper flow remains northwest through the
weekend. A weak shortwave feature drops across the panhandle
Sunday night/Monday, and while most of the moisture appears to
remain north of East Idaho, there is enough uncertainty to carry
weak precip potential across higher elevations. In general,
temperatures remain cooler than normal despite the slight warming
trend, and temperatures remain elevated enough to dispel concerns
for critical conditions. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$