659
FXUS65 KPIH 111635
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1035 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temps today with warming trend over the weekend.

- Dry weather likely through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Weather looks quiet for the next couple of days. Northwest flow over
the region will keep temps close to normal once again today with
highs in the mid to upper 80s for the lower elevations. Ridge
amplifies over the area on Saturday which will push our temps up a
couple degrees. Most lower elevations will see highs closer to 90.
No significant systems expected to pass through so weather looks dry
and winds look mainly light. Although we could see a few wind gusts
to near 20 mph each afternoon around the Magic Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Hot and dry conditions will continue for Sunday into Monday courtesy
of high pressure overhead, with highs in the 80s/90s under mostly
clear skies. A shortwave trough building in for Monday with lead to
an increase in winds, peaking during the afternoon around 15-30 mph
with gusts to 25-40 mph, with a 10-30% chance of isolated showers
and thunderstorms up along the Montana Divide around Clark and
Fremont Counties.

This shortwave trough will be a precursor to a more organized low
pressure system working south out of the Alberta and British
Columbia into the northern PacNW and Montana for Tuesday into
Wednesday, with the main circulation staying up in Montana. This
system will keeps winds elevated Tuesday into Tuesday night as a
backdoor cold front supports isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the Central Mountains, Upper Snake River Plain, and
Eastern/Southern Highlands in that 15-50% chance range, highest
further northeast along the Montana and Wyoming border regions.
While the bulk of colder air and precipitation with this system will
remain north of the Montana Divide, highs will still see a cooling
trend Tuesday into Wednesday, more noticeable further northeast
closer to the main circulation. Should the track of this low end up
being further south, we would end up seeing better precipitation
chances, but if it ended up trending more northerly, drier
conditions would then be expected.

Behind that exiting system Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger throughout the day
Wednesday in the mountains as dry conditions return regionwide later
in the day with drier zonal flow building in out of the west. While
we ultimately might see another shortwave trough build in later next
week supporting another round of showers and storms, southwest flow
and broad high pressure will lead to warming temperatures as
conditions remain predominantly dry overall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

High pressure is slowly building into the northern Rockies, but
there is now some mid-level moisture expected, with some FEW-SCT
decks in the 6000ft AGL to 10000ft AGL range. The clouds will
mostly affect the four nothernmost TAFs and will clear from west
to east starting in the early morning hours Sat. Wind will be
driven by the slope- valley effect, but stay light at 12KT or
less, with some airdromes having overnight wind that is light
and variable. Do not expect the HZ to be a problem tomorrow
morning, as it was for KIDA this previous morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

High pressure building in this weekend into early next week will
lead to warming temperatures as conditions remain very dry with
afternoon RHs in the teens/20s. Winds will see diurnal increases
each afternoon with gusts peaking through Monday around 20-30 mph. A
shortwave trough building in Monday will usher in breezier winds
with gusts to around 25-40 mph as isolated showers and thunderstorms
return to the Montana Divide. Out of the next several days, this is
when we are expecting to see the best overlap of winds and low RH to
lead to critical fire weather conditions which will need to be
monitored over subsequent updates for any fire weather headlines.

This shortwave will be a precursor to a more organized low pressure
system working southeast out of western Canada into the northern
PacNW and Montana for Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to continued
breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms primarily further north and east. Given elevated
winds and even with a slight trend up in RH midweek, elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions will remain possible
especially across our lowest elevations further southwest. Behind
that exiting system Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, isolated
showers and thunderstorms will linger throughout the day Wednesday
in the mountains as dry conditions return regionwide later in the
day with drier zonal flow building in out of the west. While we
ultimately might see another shortwave trough build in later next
week supporting another round of showers and storms, southwest flow
and broad high pressure will lead to warming temperatures as
conditions remain predominantly dry overall.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...MacKay
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay