Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
767 FXZS60 NSTU 150045 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 145 PM SST Fri Jun 14 2024 .DISCUSSION... The latest satellite imageries show a surface trough to the east, migrating westward. Clusters of thunderstorms and deeper convections embedded withing the trough are shown to move closer to the Manu`a Islands. Both model (EC & GFS) solutions are projecting this surface trough to increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms for tonight through Saturday. As soon as the aforementioned trough exits to the west, an easterly flow will prevail bringing brief embedded passing showers over the islands. Nevertheless, a more prevalent feature shown on model data is a stationary mid-level high pressure system over the area. This high pressure system will likely suppress any cloud growth for the rest of the forecast period, preventing any flash flooding conditions to occur. However, with models projecting an increase in wind strength, this may potentially be a threat for the long term forecast period. Therefore, expect numerous to widespread showers, heavy at times with embedded thunderstorms, and moderate to fresh easterlies for tonight through Saturday night turning southeast on Sunday. Winds will increase to a fresh breeze (~20 mph) by Sunday night peaking at a strong breeze (~25 mph) by Monday with scattered showers for the remainder of the forecast period. && .Marine... Manual observations for seas and surfs have been reportedly calm for the last 24 hours. Model data is showing these conditions to remain over the coastal waters for tonight throughout the forecast period. However, with thunderstorms embedded within the surface trough to the east, seas will likely elevated and winds becoming gusty nearby. Additionally, with easterlies expected to potentially reach strong breeze (~25 knots) by Monday, wind-driven waves will likely stir up rough and choppy conditions over the waters. Thus, an advisory for small crafts is now in effect for tonight through the new week. Will continue to monitor conditions as more data becomes available. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ JTAllen