655
FXUS65 KPUB 250943
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
343 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures and continued dry conditions are expected
  for our Wednesday.

- Isolated showers and storms possible along the mountains Friday afternoon.

- Dry and warm conditions prevail for the end of the week and
  into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Currently..

Water vapor imagery depicts ridging and dry air in place over the
region, with no clouds detected over the area on IR. Temperatures
are in the 50s over the plains and upper 30s to 40s over mountain
valleys as of 3 am. Winds are light and are mostly either westerly
or are following normal drainage patterns. Dewpoints are in the 30s.

Today and Tonight..

An anomalously strong ridge continues to build eastward and overhead
today, bringing temperatures up several degrees warmer than what we
saw yesterday, and to readings that are expected to be around 5 to 8
degrees above normal for this of year. This will mean highs climbing
well into the 80s across the plains, 70s to lower 80s for mountain
valleys, and 60s for higher terrain locations. Mostly sunny sky
conditions are expected today, with fairly light (by Colorado
standards..) winds. Wind directions are expected to be diurnally
driven, with gusts up to 15 mph possible over portions of the
plains. Overnight lows tonight are expected to be a few degrees
warmer than Tuesday night for most locations, especially along the
I-25 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Thursday - Tuesday: For the long term period, relatively quiet
weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. A
ridge of high pressure will sit in place across the region, and with
strong agreement between ensemble model guidance, there is high to
very high (70-80%) confidence in this pattern evolution. Given the
increased subsidence with this pattern, and weak flow and modestly
dry air, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail for the area. The
exception to this may be on Friday, when a shearing out wave will
pass over the region, and may help to blossom isolated showers and
storms along the mountains where any forcing will be maximized.
Along with all that, a couple of more amplified waves will develop
within the flow, though there is strong consensus within ensemble
model guidance that these features will remain to the north of the
area. Given that, there is high to very high (70-80%) confidence in
minimal influence from these waves. Otherwise throughout this
period, relatively light winds and pockets of afternoon clouds are
expected. Looking at temperatures, the warmth will continue through
much of this timeframe, with most remaining above seasonal values
for late September. With that said though, there is potential for a
cold front to become shoved southward behind one of the
aforementioned amplified waves at the start of next week, which
would help to cool temperatures back down to around seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12 THURSDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and diurnally
driven, with gusts remaining less than 15kt at all three sites.
Mostly clear skies are likely, and precipitation is not expected
through the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR