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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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705 FXUS62 KRAH 280711 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 310 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the New England coast today and tonight. A hotter and more humid airmass will become established across the area this weekend. A cold front will approach the area late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Friday... Increasing heat and humidity after one day relief. Most areas broke long strings of 90+ degree days on Thursday. RDU had a string of 14 days 90+ broken with a high of 88 Thursday. In addition, only 0.01 of rain had fallen during this time. Greensboro`s 90+ degree streak ended Thursday at 6 straight. Most impressive; however, is the streak of 17 straight days of having no measurable rainfall at Greensboro. The 0.04 Thursday broke the string, but brought very little benefit. The clouds and a bit of light rain Thursday did bring the temperature relief, but that is now over. High pressure will bring a relatively comfortable morning across the region today. However, as the high shifts off the New England coast during the day, the surface flow will veer from light NE to SE. After the dew points mix out some this morning into the early afternoon under the dry air, they will begin to increase again later this afternoon from the SE. Dew points will then increase into the 70s for almost all areas this evening and overnight. Highs today should top out in the lower to mid 90s. The much needed chance of rain looks meager. Models suggest a few widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm later this afternoon and evening, south and west of the Triangle. Areas from the Triangle north and east are likely to remain dry. The highest chance of showers (30 percent or so) will be near the seabreeze boundary late today and this evening that should shift well inland into the Southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Models then show some low level convergence and a bit of a maximum in instability over the Southern Piedmont or Sandhills during the early to mid evening. Lows tonight will return to the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Friday... Hot and mainly dry high pressure will be in firm control again Saturday. This will mean high heat and humidity again. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for much of the region as heat indices are forecast into the 100`s east of the Triad. Actual highs will reach 92-98. There is only a slight chance of a late day storm along the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain and in the far western Piedmont. Lows will struggle to fall under 80 many areas Saturday night with little to no showers expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 AM Friday... A cold front over the Ohio River valley will move southeast across North Carolina Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. In advance of the front, the hot weather will continue along with model guidance suggesting dewpoints will be in the mid 70s, which will result in very humid conditions. The highest heat index values are expected to be in eastern counties, where a heat advisory will likely be necessary. As the front comes through, the very moist air should result in high instability for thunderstorms, although minimal wind through the vertical profile should limit severe thunderstorm potential. While NBM guidance is going with 80-90 pops in some locations, especially across the southeast Sunday night, will be conservative and stick with 70 pops considering models seem to be a bit optimistic recently with precipitation coverage. High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes behind the frontal passage, although scattered showers/thunderstorms remain in the forecast across southern counties Monday before the forecast completely dries out for Tuesday. The high will weaken as it passes across the mid-Atlantic states and over the Atlantic Ocean Tuesday night, then another cold front could move from the Ohio River valley into the region late Thursday. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be relatively mild - in the 80s - with a northerly component to the wind, but as soon as the high moves offshore, the flow will veer back to the south and the heat will return. Expect mid 90s for highs on Wednesday and upper 90s Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 149 AM Friday... Generally VFR conditions are expected through 06z/Sat. Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area-wide Sat-Sun mornings with IFR stratus, followed by a good chance of mainly afternoon-evening showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected early to mid week next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 30: KFAY: 102/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 28: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 78/1914 June 29: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 78/1914 KFAY: 76/1969 June 30: KGSO: 74/1936 KRDU: 80/1936 KFAY: 79/1936 July 1: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 75/2012 KFAY: 76/1990 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Badgett/Luchetti CLIMATE...RAH