Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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594 FXUS64 KSHV 210238 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 938 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 935 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Still seeing a few showers on radar across portions of deep east Texas, however, they are diminishing as I write this. As such, no major changes were needed to be made to the forecast for tonight. It is still going to be mild under partly cloudy skies. /33/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Dry and hot weather is now the main factor in conditions across the Four State Region as tropical influences wane for now. This is due to ongoing easterly surface flow that will also wane in intensity through the next 12 hours as surface ridging shifts westward and overhead. A warming trend will begin to take effect as a result with temperature maximums/minimums in the mid-90s/mid-70s. Dew points in the upper 60s/lower 70s will not help with overnight heat relief. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The hottest temperatures of the year are on the way to the Four State Region this weekend into early next week. The surface ridge axis responsible for this will continue to intensify across the Southern Great Plains, maintaining southerly flow by Sunday. Long- range guidance still indicates higher chances of triple-digit temperatures on Sunday and Monday with probabilities above 15 percent (statistically significant, some areas higher than 30 percent), especially along and north of the I-20 corridor. After the middle of next week, this ridge axis will break down further, opening the door for more diurnal convection that`s typical for this time of the year. While remaining well above average, temperature maximums will also retreat from triple-digit territory, but not by much in the upper 90s. Temperature minimums in the mid-to-upper 70s will not provide much in the way of heat relief overnight. Heat hazard products are likely late this weekend into early next week. Adequate precautions and awareness are encouraged ahead of time against the elevated potential for heat illnesses. For this weekend, this includes (and is not limited to) altering outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside, checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. /16/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Scattered diurnally-driven convection will persist for the first few hours of the TAF period across portions of East Texas, mainly along and south of Interstate 20. KTYR, KGGG, and KLFK will be the sites mostly likely affected. However, the showers should gradually dissipate by 21/05z as diurnal instability wanes. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions should prevail at all terminals for the next 24 hours. Another daytime cu field should develop during the daytime hours of Friday. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 95 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 70 94 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 69 91 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 71 94 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 68 93 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 73 93 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 72 93 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 73 93 74 96 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...09