Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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078 FXUS62 KTAE 230539 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 139 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Much of the moisture from AL92 has had a difficult time penetrating further west than the I-75 corridor. This is partially caused by a stout upper level ridge that is nosing east across the deep south. This upper level ridge has imparted a northwesterly flow over AL92 today, effectively separating much of the shower and thunderstorm activity from it`s center. This upper level northwest flow has kept much of the shower and thunderstorm activity relegated to the Florida peninsula. The ridge is once again expected to remain quasi- stationary across the area, which will keep PoPs low for much of the region on Sunday. While under the influence of this upper level ridge, high temperatures are expected to reach the warmest they have been all year, with much of the area potentially reaching near 100 degrees tomorrow. This combined with some low level moisture that has pushed west from AL92 will lead to heat index values in the 108- 110 range across portions of the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. Given these heat index values, a heat advisory has been issued for a large portion of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend tomorrow. Sensitive individuals should take frequent breaks and remain hydrated if working outdoors on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 An upper level trough swings across the northern Great Lakes and into the northeast, pushing upper level high pressure off to the west. Surface high pressure will be to the north, which should allow another day of unseasonably hot temperatures. Highs will generally be in the upper 90s along and north of I-10, while south they vary from the mid to upper 90s. It`s quite possible we`ll have another day of Heat Advisory criteria for the FL counties, as MaxApt Ts for the afternoon will range from 103-110 degrees. Moisture return is a bit higher on Monday, with the best chance for storms being along the seabreeze in our FL counties. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Hot weather and unsettled weather will be the story for the long term forecast as Gulf moisture gets pushed into the region. High temperatures remain elevated in the upper 90s through Wednesday, before falling to into low to mid 90s for the end of the forecast period. A large upper level trough sets up which will allow a few fronts will try to sag into the southeast. Northwest flow is also possible, with either of these features potentially leading to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Ongoing VFR conds prevail thru the TAF period. Light west winds persist, though FL terminals get a SW shift from the aftn seabreeze. Thunder is possible invof of TLH/VLD between 18Z & 0Z. Isolated convection may encroach on ECP during that window, but confidence is not high enough to acct for attm. && .MARINE... Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Winds have veered to the southeast and south today, and will shift to the south and southwest tonight. Mainly southwesterly winds should then hold through Monday before teetering between a westerly and southwesterly component afterwards. Seas will also generally be between 1 to 3 feet, with the 3 foot waves being favored west of Apalachicola. However, long- period swells will continue through the period as another disturbance develops in the Bay of Campeche this weekend. Nightly chances of showers and storms are possible over the waters, mainly east of Apalachicola. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Hot conditions look to be present across the region the next several days, which can lead to dangerous burning conditions. Overall, outside of the heat, the largest concerns will be high dispersions primarily north of I-10 tomorrow. These high dispersions will be caused by the deep mixing heights reaching near 8000 feet combined with transport winds out of the southwest at around 10 mph. Minimum RH values will only drop into the mid to upper 30s areawide. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 323 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Moisture will continue to infiltrate the region as southwesterly flow ushers into the region. A large trough will sit over the east, while high pressure retrogrades west. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible, some of which could produce heavy rain. Overall, widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches is expected over the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 98 77 97 / 0 50 20 60 Panama City 79 92 79 91 / 0 30 20 40 Dothan 75 97 76 97 / 0 40 20 50 Albany 76 98 77 99 / 0 30 20 50 Valdosta 77 98 77 97 / 10 40 30 60 Cross City 75 94 76 94 / 10 60 20 60 Apalachicola 79 90 79 90 / 0 30 20 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ010-012>019-026>028-112- 114-115-118-127. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...KR