980
FXUS62 KTAE 281413
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1013 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

No wholesale changes were made to the forecast. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are lifting northeast from the Gulf of Mexico this
morning. They will push inland throughout the day and increase in
coverage as the day progresses. Given the moist environment with
a nearly 2.2" PWAT on the TLH sounding this morning, localized
heavy rain is the primary concern which could lead to nuisance
flooding; there could also be some gusty winds in the stronger
storms thanks to a bit of drier air between 850 and 700 mb.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A 500mb vorticity maxima shortwave trough centered over coastal
Alabama and Mississippi will continue to provide widespread forcing
for ascent across the entire forecast area today. Ongoing shower and
thunderstorm activity will continue to progress northward through
the remainder of the overnight hours before additional rounds
develop in the northern Gulf later this morning and push northward
throughout the day. Moist thermodynamic profiles with 2-2.25 inch
PWATs currently being observed across the region will provide
sufficient moisture across the area for warm rain processes to take
place. This will allow for extremely efficient rainfall rates today,
which could lead to some localized flash flooding in poor drainage
and urbanized areas. These showers and thunderstorms will generally
keep mostly cloudy conditions in place over the region today as
well, which will moderate high temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s areawide. With high dewpoints present across the area, expect
overnight lows to remain warm in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Wet weather continues through the weekend, as a moist and unstable
airmass remains overhead. There will be renewed chances for
showers and thunderstorms each day, with high temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows during the period
will be sultry and generally in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Our rich and moist atmosphere holds through the early portion of
the week, with upper level high pressure building into the
region. The ridge then strengthens mid week, before being
flattened by a trough over the northern plains or Great Lakes
region. Shower and thunderstorm chances remain high early in the
week due to the ample moisture and perhaps some minor shortwaves
sneaking through. Outside of that, convection relies more on the
seabreeze for midweek. In terms of high temperatures, we could see
a return to the upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Showers across the Gulf have continued to push inland this
morning. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
to develop across the region throughout the morning and early
afternoon hours. This may lead to brief MVFR to IFR conditions at
all terminals through much of today. Outside of these brief
restrictions in showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions are
expected through the remainder of the period. Expect southwest
winds around 10 mph at all terminals today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Southwesterly flow continues to usher in moisture and has led to
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning.
Elevated rain chances remain in place through the weekend. Winds
and seas will remain around 10 to 15 knots through early Saturday
before winds become lighter through the rest of the weekend and
early next week. Seas will drop as well though lingering long
period swells from disturbed weather across the southern Gulf will
delay lower seas until next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing over the next
couple of days as a very moist airmass lingers over the region. This
will keep dispersions in a favorable range as mixing heights are
expected to remain in the 3500-4000 ft range. Transport winds will
generally remain out of the southwest at around 10-15 mph today.
Overall, with the moist airmass in place, there are no fire weather
concerns for the next couple of days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 431 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Satellite derived PWATs this morning are around 2 inches,
aligning fairly well with the SPC mesoanalysis page. Guidance
suggests that additional moistening will be possible which could
put PWAT values around 2-2.25 inches. Given the shortwave to our
west, there will be plenty of forcing for scattered to widespread
thunderstorm chances. Quite a bit of rain has already fallen over
the western FL Panhandle and into southeast AL, where the flash
flood guidance suggests rates of 2 to 4 inches/hr. CAM and hi-res
guidance show decent probabilities of up to or greater than 3
inches of accumulated rainfall over the next few days, favoring
the FL counties along and south of I-10. Higher amounts of 4 to 6
inches, perhaps even locally higher, could be possible. Should we
have training or slow moving storms flooding could range from
nuisance to flash. Rainfall totals over the next 7 days, with the
bulk of it falling in the next 1-4, will be around 1-3 inches.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  75  94  76 /  70  20  70  20
Panama City   88  79  90  79 /  70  20  50  20
Dothan        91  74  93  75 /  60  20  60  20
Albany        93  74  94  75 /  70  30  50  20
Valdosta      93  74  96  75 /  70  30  60  30
Cross City    91  75  93  75 /  70  20  70  30
Apalachicola  87  80  89  79 /  70  20  60  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...KR