498
FXUS62 KTBW 011341
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
941 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Scattered convection continues across Gulf Waters this morning as a
couple light showers drift onshore in Levy County. Most, however,
are starting the day mostly sunny to partly cloudy. When compared to
yesterday, the PW value has trended downward slightly.  Some
guidance has indicated there would be a decline today, and current
water vapor satellite imagery shows some drier air advecting across
the peninsula. The 10Z XMR sounding showed a PW of 1.78 inches,
which is still sufficient, but lower than the approx. 2.1 inches
observed here yesterday. The XMR site is upstream in the current
flow.

However, the TBW 12Z sounding still showed a PW value of 1.93
inches, which means this drier air has yet to get all the way across
the peninsula yet. This is why convection is ongoing this morning
across coastal waters. With the flow, more of this drier air should
work in through the day. While this is far from truly dry, this
decline (and the fact that we are on an axis of decreasing moisture)
suggests fewer storms this afternoon. Not zero by any means, but not
as widespread as the last couple days.

With a light ESE flow, similar to regime 6, SWFL has the best
potential for storms today, but the entirety of the west coast has a
window for storms before the sea breeze boundaries move farther
inland and collide over the interior. This is not unlike the last
few days.

The overall potential for severe weather is low. However, some
drying of the mid-levels (noted in the 12Z sounding) does favor a
higher potential for downbursts. Light winds also favor heavy
rainfall once again today, and frequent lightning should be expected
given the depth of storms. Hail is unlikely, though, given 500mb
temps of -4C.

Overall, the forecast looks on track. No major changes have been
made. Expect a warm, humid morning and scattered storms this
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Some lingering MVFR to LIFR conditions are impacting the central
interior this morning. However, with the sun now rising, this should
quickly lift and gradually mix out over the next few hours. Once
this occurs, the main concern remaining through the day is for
thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. With a very light
background ESE flow today, sea breeze circulations will again be the
driving force behind convective development this afternoon. However,
the atmosphere does look a little drier today, suggesting less
coverage and generally shorter windows for impacts at terminals. It
also makes on-station impacts less certain. SWFL has the longest
windows, with slightly higher moisture to support more storms in
place once again today. Moisture content increases again tomorrow
and through the remainder of the week, with a higher potential for
impacts at terminals each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A ridge of high pressure sitting over the coastal waters will keep
light south and southeast flow in place today and Tuesday, turning
onshore near the coast each afternoon with the seabreeze. The ridge
lifts north on Wednesday, favoring more southeast to easterly flow
for the rest of the week. Winds and seas will generally remain well
below headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms will produce
locally hazardous boating conditions.
/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

No humidity concerns. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop each day this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  79  93  78 /  60  20  50  40
FMY  91  77  92  78 /  60  30  70  30
GIF  94  77  95  77 /  60  40  60  20
SRQ  90  77  92  78 /  40  20  50  30
BKV  92  74  94  75 /  60  20  50  30
SPG  91  82  92  82 /  50  20  40  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Fleming