Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
879 FXXX10 KWNP 110031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 11-Jun 13 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 11-Jun 13 2024 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 1.33 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 1.33 06-09UT 3.67 3.33 1.33 09-12UT 3.33 2.67 1.33 12-15UT 3.00 2.67 1.33 15-18UT 2.33 2.00 1.67 18-21UT 2.33 2.00 1.67 21-00UT 1.67 2.00 1.67 Rationale: A lingering chance for a G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms is anticipated on Day 1 (11 Jun) in response to the passage of the 08 Jun CME. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 11-Jun 13 2024 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 S1 or greater 50% 25% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storm on Jun 11-12 with the continued activity of Region 2697 as it rotates around the west limb. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 10 2024 1108 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 11-Jun 13 2024 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 R1-R2 70% 65% 50% R3 or greater 25% 20% 10% Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be at moderate to high levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 11 Jun with a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3/Strong). For 12-13 Jun, there is a decreasing chance for M-class flares with only a slight chance for isolated X-class flare activity as Region 3697 moves further beyond the SW limb.