821
FXUS65 KABQ 030549 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1049 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1040 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Minor to locally moderate travel impacts from snow over the
  northern mountains and adjacent highlands stretching down to
  I-40 near Clines Corners mid Wednesday into early Thursday.

- Strong crosswinds will impact travel across east central New
  Mexico Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1256 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

An upper level trough over the Pacific NW will quickly move
southeast over the Great Basin this afternoon and evening. Dry
westerly winds are expected across New Mexico this afternoon. The
strongest west winds will be across the I-40 and U.S. 84/60 corridor
between Clines Corners, Tucumcari, and Portales due to these
locations being south of a surface lee low over northeast NM. Wind
gusts of up to 45 mph are expected through sunset. Heading into the
evening and overnight hours, mid level clouds along the CO border
move southeast across the state as the upper level trough axis
approaches the Four Corners region. At the same time, a backdoor
front will enter far northeast NM before midnight moving through all
of eastern NM come sunrise Wednesday. The backdoor front looks to
push through the gaps of the central mountain chain mid Wednesday
morning resulting in a east/southeast wind for the ABQ and Santa Fe
Metro. The strength of this east wind is fairly uncertain as the
backdoor front will be combating with a Pacific front on the leading
edge of the trough axis coming in from the northwest.

The upper level trough axis, potentially closed low, will be over
the Four Corners region midday Wednesday with precipitation, mainly
snow, breaking out across northwest and north central NM along the
Pacific front and far northeast NM due to upslope flow behind the
backdoor front. Snow, with some rain mixing in for lower elevations
of the middle and lower RGV, moves southeast across the forecast
area Wednesday evening through sunrise Thursday as the trough axis
swings through. Snow will be most intense across the east slopes of
the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia and Manzano Mountains and over the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains due to upslope easterly flow. Expanded
the Winter Weather Advisories across north central NM and the
northeast highlands to the Tusas Mountains and Central Highlands as
these zones are now expected to see snowfall amounts approaching
advisory criteria. Some high res guidance shows a brief period of
heavier snow along the I-40 corridor between Moriarty and Santa
Rosa, including Clines Corners early Thursday morning. Snow will
quickly taper off across northeast and east central NM mid to late
Thursday morning as the trough axis exits into the southern Great
Plains. In the end, snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
across the far northwest highlands, Jemez Mountains Sandia and
Manzano Mountains, Glorieta Pass, and northeast and central
highlands. 3 to 4 inches across the upper RGV, including Taos, and 4
to 7 inches across the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo Mountains with
locally up to 10 inches across the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. The Santa Fe Metro will see around an inch and most of
the ABQ Metro outside of the valley could see a dusting to 0.5 inch.
Clearing skies on Thursday with a brisk breeze and chilly
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s across lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1256 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Dry northwest flow is expected for the last few days of this week
into early next week as the state remains between a upper high over
the central Pacific and longwave troughing across much of the lower
48. High temperatures will gradually warm up beginning Friday from
around 3 to 8 degrees below average that day to around 5 to 10
degrees above average early next week. Typical breezy northwest
winds are expected across the Central Highlands most days. The one
exception will be Saturday when northwest winds will be stronger
with some gusts of up to 50 mph as an upper level trough among the
large scale northwest flow swings southeast across the state. This
trough will also result in some breezy northwest winds for the east
central plains with max gusts of 35 to 40 mph for this zone. A weak
backdoor front in this wake of this trough will pause the
aforementioned warmup across northeast NM on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Forecast confidence is increasing that winter weather impacts will
develop from north to south over the airspace thru late Wednesday.
A backdoor cold front entering eastern NM tonight will move west
to the central mt chain Wednesday afternoon then thru canyons
in the RGV Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, a band of snow with MVFR
cigs and vsbys will develop from near KFMN into the northern mts
aft sunrise Wednesday. Snow will spread south thru the day with mt
obscurations and MVFR expected as far south as I-40 by sunset
(>80% chance). Canyon winds have trended stronger for KABQ with
gusts up to 25KT Wednesday evening. Widespread IFR may develop
southward along the entire central mt chain and most of eastern NM
Wednesday night (20-50% chance).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

No critical fire weather conditions are expected through mid next
week. Below normal temperatures through Friday, with the coldest day
being Thursday when high temperatures will generally be 6 to 14
degrees below average. A system quickly moves across the state late
Wednesday into early Thursday bringing snow to mainly northern and
eastern New Mexico. The heaviest snow amounts of 6 to 10 inches will
be across the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Dry and
gradually warming up Friday into early next week with breezy
northwest winds across the central highlands. The one exception will
be breezy conditions east central New Mexico to locally windy
conditions across the central highlands on Saturday. Very good
ventilation across the western mountains Wednesday. Ventilation
generally poor Thursday through early next week with areas of fair
to locally good ventilation across eastern New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  27  39  23  38 /  10  50  20   0
Dulce...........................  20  37  19  35 /  10  90  70  20
Cuba............................  23  38  20  34 /   0  40  70   5
Gallup..........................  21  40  17  41 /   0  40  20   5
El Morro........................  22  40  19  39 /   0  30  30   5
Grants..........................  21  43  19  43 /   0  20  40   5
Quemado.........................  22  45  21  40 /   0  30  40   5
Magdalena.......................  28  48  24  43 /   0  10  30   5
Datil...........................  24  44  20  40 /   0  10  30   5
Reserve.........................  24  49  21  49 /   0  20  30   5
Glenwood........................  29  55  25  53 /   0  10  20   5
Chama...........................  17  33  14  31 /  20  90  80  20
Los Alamos......................  25  38  20  35 /   0  30  80  10
Pecos...........................  24  39  18  36 /   0  20  90  10
Cerro/Questa....................  19  35  16  32 /   5  70  90   5
Red River.......................  12  30   6  27 /   5  70  90   5
Angel Fire......................  11  31   7  30 /   0  60  90  10
Taos............................  19  38  17  35 /   0  50  90   5
Mora............................  20  36  13  37 /   0  40  90  10
Espanola........................  24  46  23  40 /   0  30  80   5
Santa Fe........................  25  41  21  36 /   0  20  80  10
Santa Fe Airport................  26  43  23  37 /   0  20  80   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  29  46  26  42 /   0  20  80  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  30  48  28  44 /   0  10  70   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  28  50  30  46 /   0  10  70   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  29  48  29  44 /   0  10  70   5
Belen...........................  27  51  29  46 /   0  20  60  10
Bernalillo......................  28  48  28  44 /   0  10  80   5
Bosque Farms....................  26  50  28  45 /   0  20  60   5
Corrales........................  28  49  28  44 /   0  10  70   5
Los Lunas.......................  27  50  29  46 /   0  20  60   5
Placitas........................  27  45  25  40 /   0  10  80   5
Rio Rancho......................  28  47  28  43 /   0  10  70   5
Socorro.........................  31  55  30  49 /   0  10  30  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  24  39  20  36 /   0  20  80  10
Tijeras.........................  25  42  22  39 /   0  20  80  10
Edgewood........................  23  43  20  39 /   0  20  80  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  20  46  20  40 /   0  20  70  10
Clines Corners..................  24  39  18  34 /   0  10  80  10
Mountainair.....................  26  47  21  40 /   0  30  70  10
Gran Quivira....................  27  49  22  40 /   0  20  70  20
Carrizozo.......................  34  52  28  45 /   0  10  60  20
Ruidoso.........................  34  47  23  40 /   0   5  50  20
Capulin.........................  21  31  15  34 /   0  60  70   0
Raton...........................  22  35  16  37 /   5  70  80   0
Springer........................  23  38  18  40 /   0  40  70   0
Las Vegas.......................  23  38  15  38 /   0  20  90   5
Clayton.........................  27  37  20  39 /   0  30  50   5
Roy.............................  25  39  19  37 /   0  20  70   5
Conchas.........................  28  47  24  43 /   0   5  70  10
Santa Rosa......................  29  45  23  41 /   0  10  70  10
Tucumcari.......................  28  48  23  43 /   0   0  70  20
Clovis..........................  30  49  25  41 /   0   0  60  30
Portales........................  29  51  25  42 /   0   0  50  30
Fort Sumner.....................  30  51  26  43 /   0   5  70  20
Roswell.........................  31  57  30  44 /   0   0  40  10
Picacho.........................  34  54  25  45 /   0   0  30  10
Elk.............................  34  56  23  46 /   0   0  30  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Wednesday to 5 AM MST Thursday
for NMZ210-212>216-227>229.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 AM MST Thursday
for NMZ223.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...42