Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
331 FXUS65 KABQ 131910 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 110 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026 - Heat continues across eastern New Mexico through Monday where there is an elevated risk of heat related illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs. - A surge of rich monsoon moisture increasing into next week will elevate the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially around urban areas, burn scars, and low water crossings. Arroyos and small streams that have dried up this summer may fill with water. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026 PWATs continue to rise, with the 18Z KABQ upper air sounding showing 1.01". That trend will continue through Monday night as the Monsoon high continues to move east and away from NM. The increase in atmospheric moisture is associated with a developing Monsoon moisture plume and will result in an uptick in convective coverage through Monday, with potential for locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. All of the latest CAMs confirm this trend and although the output isn`t favorable for the ABQ Metro to receive significant rainfall this afternoon/evening, they are bullish for Monday between 3-9PM. The WPC shows much of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Monday, with the Southwest Mountains included in a slight risk. Daytime temperatures will trend down Monday thanks to the added moisture resulting in cloud cover and potential rain-cooling, with the ABQ Metro forecast to stay in the 80s for the 1st time in over a week. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026 The upper high is forecast to remain over the southeast US, while a west coast trough/low meanders around the Pacific NW and Great Basin through the end of the week. This setup will allow a Monsoon moisture plume to stand up over the region, resulting in a continued uptrend in PWATs through mid week and then remaining elevated through at least Friday. PWATs are forecast to challenge daily records each day this week, with the Tuesday through Thursday period being the peak. The result will be a wet period with good chances for showers and storms and the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The WPC shows much of our area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday, which look to be the most active days. With increasingly wet antecedent conditions from mid through late week, there is a good chances that Flash Flood Watches will be required both on and off area burn scars. Daytime temperatures will trend down through the week thanks to added cloud cover and rain- cooling, with highs forecast to be at or below average most areas from Wednesday onward. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for low probabilities for short-lived MVFR conditions in blowing dust due to thunderstorm outflow. VFR cigs may lower further than forecast at KGUP early Monday morning, but are still forecast to remain VFR. An increase in coverage of showers and storms is forecast this afternoon/evening relative to yesterday and is being accounted for with PROB30 groups in the TAFs, except for KROW where probabilities for thunderstorm impacts are too low to include. Wind gusts to between 30-40kts will be common with showers and storms today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. The Monsoon high is moving east of the area and a Monsoon moisture plume will stand up over the region, bringing higher humidity and good chances for wetting rainfall through the end of the week. Daytime temperatures will trend down through the week and be near to below average from Wednesday through Friday. Except for strong and erratic wind gusts from showers and storms, winds will generally be light through the period. A drying/warming trend may begin late next weekend under the influence of a developing ridge of high pressure aloft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 61 82 58 82 / 60 60 50 30 Dulce........................... 53 79 49 80 / 70 70 60 50 Cuba............................ 56 77 53 77 / 60 70 70 50 Gallup.......................... 56 80 52 79 / 30 60 60 40 El Morro........................ 54 77 51 76 / 40 60 70 50 Grants.......................... 57 81 53 79 / 30 60 60 50 Quemado......................... 57 78 55 78 / 30 70 60 60 Magdalena....................... 62 80 59 78 / 40 70 70 60 Datil........................... 57 77 55 76 / 20 70 50 60 Reserve......................... 56 82 55 83 / 30 50 50 50 Glenwood........................ 62 87 61 87 / 40 50 50 50 Chama........................... 51 72 48 74 / 70 70 60 70 Los Alamos...................... 62 79 59 77 / 30 70 70 60 Pecos........................... 56 81 54 79 / 50 50 50 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 77 52 76 / 40 60 40 50 Red River....................... 49 68 46 67 / 30 50 40 70 Angel Fire...................... 46 74 41 73 / 30 50 40 70 Taos............................ 56 81 52 80 / 30 60 50 50 Mora............................ 55 79 53 76 / 40 40 40 80 Espanola........................ 63 85 58 83 / 30 70 60 40 Santa Fe........................ 60 81 57 79 / 40 60 50 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 84 56 82 / 30 50 50 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 86 63 84 / 20 60 50 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 66 86 63 84 / 30 50 50 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 88 62 86 / 30 50 50 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 86 63 84 / 30 60 60 40 Belen........................... 65 88 61 86 / 30 50 60 40 Bernalillo...................... 66 87 62 86 / 30 60 70 40 Bosque Farms.................... 62 87 59 86 / 30 50 50 40 Corrales........................ 65 87 62 85 / 30 60 70 40 Los Lunas....................... 62 87 59 86 / 30 50 60 40 Placitas........................ 65 85 62 83 / 30 60 60 40 Rio Rancho...................... 66 86 63 84 / 30 60 70 40 Socorro......................... 69 89 66 87 / 30 60 60 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 81 57 79 / 30 60 50 60 Tijeras......................... 63 82 59 81 / 30 60 50 50 Edgewood........................ 60 84 57 82 / 20 60 50 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 86 53 83 / 20 50 40 60 Clines Corners.................. 59 83 56 80 / 30 50 50 50 Mountainair..................... 61 83 58 81 / 30 60 60 50 Gran Quivira.................... 60 84 57 81 / 30 50 50 50 Carrizozo....................... 66 87 63 83 / 30 30 50 40 Ruidoso......................... 59 79 58 77 / 30 50 50 70 Capulin......................... 58 84 55 74 / 20 30 20 50 Raton........................... 55 87 54 80 / 20 30 20 50 Springer........................ 58 89 55 83 / 30 30 20 50 Las Vegas....................... 58 82 56 80 / 30 30 40 50 Clayton......................... 66 92 64 83 / 20 30 30 30 Roy............................. 63 87 60 83 / 30 30 30 40 Conchas......................... 69 95 66 90 / 20 30 40 30 Santa Rosa...................... 67 91 65 87 / 20 50 60 40 Tucumcari....................... 70 97 68 92 / 30 20 30 40 Clovis.......................... 67 95 67 92 / 30 10 30 50 Portales........................ 68 96 68 93 / 20 10 30 50 Fort Sumner..................... 69 95 67 91 / 20 30 40 30 Roswell......................... 70 98 69 96 / 20 20 40 30 Picacho......................... 64 90 63 88 / 20 60 50 60 Elk............................. 61 87 60 85 / 20 40 40 60 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11