Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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033 FXUS65 KABQ 251130 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 430 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 430 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 - Areas of low visibility from fog and freezing fog this morning across northwest and west central NM, including Farmington, Bloomfield, Dulce, and Gallup. - Those with travel plans after Thanksgiving, including Sunday into early week, should stay updated with the latest weather forecasts and statements. Be prepared to alter travel routes or plans, due to potential for a potent storm system to bring travel impacts across the Desert Southwest, including New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1231 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 Lingering low level moisture across parts of northern and western NM, mainly valley locations, is resulting in the development of low clouds this morning. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out around sunrise across the northwest plateau and far northwest highlands including Farmington and Dulce. These low clouds should burn off by late morning as drier northwest flow develops. Meanwhile, a shortwave across the northern Rockies this morning will move into the northern Great Plains today. This will help send a backdoor front into northeast NM after sunrise this morning pushing through all of eastern NM by midday. Potential for north wind gusts of up to 30 mph near the Texas border along and a little behind the backdoor front. The backdoor front will cool temperatures across northeast NM to slightly below average values for late November with little to no change across east central and southeast NM. Near normal temperatures across western and central NM with mostly clear skies areawide. Upper level ridging over the Great Basin on Wednesday will result in dry northwest flow and mostly clear skies over the Land of Enchantment for Thanksgiving Eve. Temperatures across southeast NM will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today due to the effect of today`s backdoor front. Meanwhile, a weak surface lee low over northeast NM will help warm temperatures 5 to 10 degrees, near average, across this part of the state. The surface lee low will also result in some breezy southwest to west winds across the I-40 corridor between Clines Corners to the TX border. Wind gusts of up to 35 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1231 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 A splendid Thanksgiving Day is expected across New Mexico with weak upper level ridging moving overhead. Temperatures will be around average across eastern NM and 5 to 10 degrees above average across western and central NM with light winds areawide. Increasing high clouds moving in from the southwest during the day. High clouds move out during the day Friday with zonal flow overhead and the state south of a upper level trough over the northern Rockies and Great Basin. 700 mb winds of 25 to 30 kts will result in some low end breezy conditions across the central highlands. This west and southwest flow will result in above average temperatures by around 5 to 10 degrees areawide. This upper level trough quickly moves southeast through the central Rockies Friday night into Saturday morning and over the Great Plains Saturday. A few light showers cannot be ruled out near the NM/CO early Saturday morning. Pacific and backdoor fronts will move the the state Saturday morning in the wake of the trough cooling temperatures closer to normal for most and slightly below normal across northeast and east central NM. Attention this Thanksgiving weekend will turn upstream to the next upper level trough over the northern Rockies and Great Basin. At this time, confidence is low on the overall storm evolution and resultant sensible weather and impacts. First looking at the operational models, the GFS, GFS-AI and Canadian have a closed low over Nevada and Utah come Saturday night into Sunday morning diving into Arizona Sunday into Sunday night and moving across New Mexico next Monday (Scenario 1). Meanwhile, the ECMWF has an open wave over the northern and central Rockies and Great Basin on Sunday scraping northern New Mexico Sunday night into Monday. The EC-AIFS is similar to the ECWMF with the open wave slightly deeper as it moves across New Mexico Sunday night into Monday (Scenario 2). Now for the clusters, 33% favor a version of Scenario 1 with 32% favoring scenario 2. The other 35% favor a very slow scenario with the system closing off into an upper low off the coast of southern CA next Monday before gradually moving across the desert SW next Tuesday and Wednesday (Scenario 3). Scenario 1 would result in impacts for most of the state as early Sunday afternoon peaking Sunday night into Monday before improving Monday night into Tuesday morning. Scenario 2 would result in at most minor impacts to northern and central NM Sunday night into Monday. Scenario 3 would result in impacts mainly next Monday through Wednesday. To those travelling back home from Thanksgiving with family and friends, it is recommended to stay tuned to the forecast for any changes. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 Areas of IFR to airport minimum conditions due to fog and freezing fog will continue through mid to late this morning across northwest and west central NM, including KFMN and KGUP. Low clouds across these areas should burn off around midday due to drier northwest flow. Meanwhile, a backdoor front will push through eastern NM later this morning after sunrise. Some gusty northeast to north winds will be observed in its wake with peak gusts of 20 to 25 kts at locations like KTCC and KROW. Gusty southeast winds with peak gusts of up to 25 kts at KLVS along the edge of the backdoor front. Batch of cirrus clouds moving southeast across the area this afternoon. Winds taper off this evening around sunset with light easterly flow across the eastern plains. Low (10%) potential for low clouds and MVFR conditions across the lower Pecos River Valley, including KROW, early tomorrow morning due to the light easterly flow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1231 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 No critical fire weather conditions are expected through early next weekend. Cooler across northeast New Mexico today and southeast NM Thanksgiving Eve due to a backdoor front. Good ventilation across the eastern plains today due to the backdoor front and east central New Mexico Wednesday due to breezy west winds. Milder with mostly poor ventilation Thanksgiving Day and Friday. Cooler Saturday areawide behind Pacific and backdoor fronts with poor ventilation continuing areawide. Looking unsettled early next week as a storm system deepens over the desert SW. Exact storm track and evolution and resultant weather and impacts remain highly uncertain at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 51 27 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 49 16 51 18 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 48 21 51 24 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 52 19 56 21 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 51 26 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 54 20 59 21 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 53 24 59 26 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 55 30 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 53 27 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 62 23 64 26 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 68 28 67 29 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 45 16 46 20 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 49 28 49 31 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 53 23 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 23 48 26 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 39 17 40 21 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 46 11 47 14 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 50 19 50 19 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 52 19 54 26 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 56 22 55 24 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 50 27 49 31 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 51 24 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 34 54 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 58 27 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 60 26 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 58 29 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 59 23 57 24 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 59 28 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 59 22 57 24 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 59 27 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 59 24 56 26 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 54 31 53 34 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 58 29 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 62 30 61 31 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 27 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 51 28 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 53 22 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 17 55 21 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 51 23 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 54 24 53 28 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 56 24 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 59 30 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 55 27 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 43 19 51 24 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 51 20 54 24 / 0 5 0 0 Springer........................ 54 22 56 22 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 53 23 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 48 25 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 52 23 54 26 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 58 27 61 27 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 56 27 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 58 27 59 27 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 61 29 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 64 29 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 61 29 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 67 34 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 65 29 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 66 25 64 31 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for NMZ201-203- 204. Freezing Fog Advisory until 8 AM MST this morning for NMZ205-206. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...71