Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
472 FXUS65 KABQ 311133 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 533 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 523 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Scattered storms will persist into the early morning hours of Sunday across east central, south central and southeast NM, with an elevated threat of flash flooding. - An active monsoon thunderstorm pattern will persist from Sunday into the middle of the week, with a continued flash flood threat, but with coverage of storms gradually decreasing. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A gusty east canyon wind has developed in the RGV as a result of a backdoor front and thunderstorm outflow moving west through central NM. Nocturnal convection persists across eastern NM, with some locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-2" likely. The overall flash flood threat overnight is on the downtrend, but given ongoing convection in the watch area we`ll hold onto the watch for now. We`ll look more closely at issuing a Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area for Sunday afternoon/evening after we see what transpires overnight as the atmosphere may be too worked-over to be productive on Sunday. The transport of low level moisture to the Continental Divide overnight will set the stage for a round of storms across central NM Sunday afternoon/evening, which will be steered toward the RGV late day as the Monsoon high centers over AZ. Northwest flow over northeast NM will likely be strong enough to keep storms moving and a decent clip, which will limit the flash flood threat there on Sunday. However, storms will be moving much slower across south central and southeast NM, where locally heavy rainfall is likely. Look for more of the same on Monday as the Monsoon high drifts slowly northwest to the AZ/UT border. A lack of notable flow in the lower boundary layer on Monday will make it more difficult for storms to survive after moving south off of the mountains, but the flow regime is favorable for both the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros to pick up some rain late Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The Monsoon high will remain over the AZ/UT border at around 593dam at 500mb through Wednesday, with rounds of daytime heating triggered convection across our area. Temperatures will generally be near average west and warming to near average across eastern NM as the upper high expands slightly back to the east. The backdoor front that was forecast to move in on Wednesday night and recharge moisture across central and eastern NM is now looking like more of a glancing blow to northeast NM. A more notable backdoor front will likely move in Friday or Friday night and recharge moisture across eastern NM. At the same time, the upper high is forecast to drift back south and break-down, allowing moisture to surge north into the region next weekend. However, there are notable differences among the medium range model solutions for next weekend, including with the handling of a tropical storm moving north offshore of MX. At this time, we have lower forecast confidence from Friday through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A gusty east canyon wind continues at KABQ, but will slowly diminish through 15Z. Areas of MVFR conditions in low stratus prevail along the east slopes of the central mountain chain and adjacent eastern highlands, but are not expected to impact KLVS at this time. Scattered showers/storms at KROW will be associated with short-lived MVFR conditions this morning. MVFR conditions are likely in sct/num storms across central/eastern NM late this afternoon and evening, but short-lived IFR conditions are possible. Low to moderate probabilities of storms impacting the KABQ/KAEG/KSAF airspace late this afternoon after moving southeast off of the higher terrain to the west. Areas of low stratus may develop across eastern NM late tonight, but forecast confidence too low to include sub-VFR conditions in TAFs at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least the next seven days as the Monsoon high remains over the region with daily rounds of mostly wetting storms. The Monsoon high is forecast to move west and northwest of the state through the forecast period, keeping western NM on the drier/warmer side while areas along/east of the central mountain chain benefit from higher humidity, cooler temperatures and chances for wetting storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 86 60 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 82 44 85 46 / 20 20 20 10 Cuba............................ 81 51 81 53 / 20 10 30 10 Gallup.......................... 85 52 85 51 / 5 0 10 5 El Morro........................ 81 53 80 53 / 20 20 30 10 Grants.......................... 83 53 83 53 / 30 20 30 10 Quemado......................... 82 53 82 53 / 40 20 30 10 Magdalena....................... 80 56 80 57 / 50 30 40 20 Datil........................... 78 52 78 51 / 60 30 40 20 Reserve......................... 89 53 86 53 / 60 30 40 20 Glenwood........................ 91 57 88 57 / 60 40 50 20 Chama........................... 76 45 77 45 / 40 20 50 20 Los Alamos...................... 76 54 77 55 / 50 20 60 10 Pecos........................... 74 51 76 50 / 60 30 60 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 75 48 78 49 / 60 30 60 20 Red River....................... 65 40 67 41 / 60 30 60 10 Angel Fire...................... 68 36 71 35 / 60 30 60 10 Taos............................ 78 48 80 48 / 50 20 40 10 Mora............................ 70 46 73 46 / 70 30 70 20 Espanola........................ 83 54 85 54 / 40 20 40 20 Santa Fe........................ 77 55 79 56 / 50 20 50 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 81 53 83 54 / 40 20 30 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 85 62 85 63 / 30 20 40 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 87 61 88 62 / 30 20 20 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 89 61 89 61 / 20 20 20 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 87 61 88 62 / 20 20 20 10 Belen........................... 89 59 89 58 / 30 20 20 10 Bernalillo...................... 88 60 88 60 / 30 20 20 10 Bosque Farms.................... 89 58 88 57 / 30 20 20 10 Corrales........................ 88 60 89 61 / 20 20 20 10 Los Lunas....................... 88 59 88 59 / 30 20 20 10 Placitas........................ 83 58 84 59 / 30 20 30 10 Rio Rancho...................... 87 61 88 61 / 20 20 20 10 Socorro......................... 91 63 90 62 / 40 30 20 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 78 53 80 54 / 40 20 40 10 Tijeras......................... 80 55 81 56 / 30 20 40 10 Edgewood........................ 80 51 81 51 / 40 20 40 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 81 50 82 49 / 40 20 30 10 Clines Corners.................. 73 52 75 52 / 50 30 40 10 Mountainair..................... 80 52 80 52 / 40 20 40 10 Gran Quivira.................... 79 53 80 53 / 50 30 40 10 Carrizozo....................... 82 58 82 58 / 60 40 30 20 Ruidoso......................... 72 53 72 53 / 60 40 50 10 Capulin......................... 71 48 75 48 / 30 20 20 5 Raton........................... 75 48 78 48 / 40 20 30 5 Springer........................ 78 50 80 49 / 50 20 30 5 Las Vegas....................... 73 50 75 49 / 60 30 60 20 Clayton......................... 79 56 83 54 / 10 10 5 0 Roy............................. 76 53 79 52 / 40 30 30 10 Conchas......................... 82 58 85 57 / 20 30 20 10 Santa Rosa...................... 79 56 81 55 / 30 40 30 20 Tucumcari....................... 80 56 83 55 / 10 20 5 10 Clovis.......................... 84 61 87 60 / 20 20 10 10 Portales........................ 84 60 87 59 / 30 20 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 83 60 85 59 / 20 30 10 10 Roswell......................... 85 64 86 62 / 50 40 10 10 Picacho......................... 80 58 81 57 / 40 40 30 10 Elk............................. 76 55 78 53 / 50 30 40 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ226-235>240. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11