Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191136
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
536 AM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
An upper level trough will pass to the north of NM today with a dry
west flow aloft over NM. A few cumulus clouds are expected to develop
this afternoon through early evening, and VFR conditions will prevail
across the entire area. Surface low pressure in southeast CO this
afternoon will generate south to southwest wind gusts between 25 and
30 knots across portions of the eastern plains, the northeast
highlands and the west central highlands. A backdoor cold front will
move into the northeast plains after midnight and into east central
NM, including KTCC, between 10Z and 12Z. North to north-northeast
winds behind the front will gust up to 30 knots, and ceilings along
and behind the front could fall into the MVFR category.

28

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Western New Mexico will be dry for the rest of this week, while a
series of fronts allow moisture to slosh back and forth over the
eastern plains, where high temperatures will vary from day to day
but remain within a few degrees of normal. Showers and storms look
to be most active tonight through Thursday night over the east, and
may initiate an east wind into the Rio Grande Valley, most likely
Wednesday night. Stronger westerly winds Friday and Saturday are
forecast to sweep out any lingering moisture, and result in
localized critical fire weather conditions. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms may return to eastern New Mexico early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Low level moisture over western New Mexico mixed out Monday
afternoon, but stubbornly hung on over the central and east. Drier
air is expected to overtake more of the central areas today,
allowing for slight warming, but moisture to persist in the east,
where a front/outflow boundary will reach northeast New Mexico by
this afternoon, according to the latest HRRR/NAM12. The RAP13 holds
the boundary in southeast CO while the NAM12 tends to push it back
to the north until later this evening when additional convection
shoves it into northeast New Mexico. SPC outlook consistent with the
idea of a few strong to severe storms in the far northeast
today/tonight. Otherwise, not seeing any fog or low clouds
developing so far this morning over the far eastern plains, despite
the low to mid 60s dew points, so left any mention out of the
forecast for this morning.

Surface high pressure is reinforced over the east
Wednesday/Wednesday night, and an east wind into the RGV is not out
of the question. However, any low level moisture which seeps west of
the central mountain chain doesn`t appear to survive Thursday as it
mixes out later in the day.  Still, there could be isolated
convection along and east of the central mountain chain. The updated
and latest Day 3 Convective Outlook paints a large Marginal area
over the northeast quarter or so of New Mexico Thursday/Thursday
night.

Westerly winds strengthen Friday and Saturday as a weak disturbance
passes to our north, then an upper low dives into the central
Rockies. The track of the upper low is suspect, with the GFS farther
south, and the ECMWF farther north. Despite the differences, low
level moisture looks to return to the eastern plains early next
week, for isolated to scattered showers and storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A surface low will deepen in southeast CO and far northeast NM  this
afternoon and evening. This will cause south-southwest to south
winds across the east central plains, northeast plains and northeast
highlands to peak this afternoon in the 15 to 20 mph range. Winds
across the rest of the region will be between 10 and 15 mph. As a
trough moves eastward across CO today, west flow aloft will
transport drier air across the region. Minimum relative humidity in
western NM will fall into the single digits, while it will fall
below 15 percent across most of central NM. Minimum relative
humidity in the eastern plains Tuesday will range from 15 to 30
percent. Breezy south-southwest winds and minimum relative humidity
in the lower teens will produce a couple of hours of critical fire
weather conditions in the northeast highlands this afternoon. Haines
values this afternoon will range between 5 and 6 across much of the
region, except for the southeast plains and far eastern portions of
the east central plains.

A backdoor cold front will move southwestward across the northeast
plains after midnight tonight and continue westward across the
plains into the adjacent highlands Wednesday. Modest increases in
low level moisture behind the cold front will keep minimum relative
humidity above 15 percent from the Sangre de Cristos southward to
the south central highlands and eastward across the eastern plains
to the TX border. Winds will be light Wednesday, generally 5 to 15
mph. Another backdoor cold front will push westward across the
eastern plains Wednesday evening and overnight. The interaction of
the front with low level moisture will generate isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the eastern plains late
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. Chances of wetting
rainfall across this area appears to be slight, though a few areas
could receive a couple of tenths in isolated stronger thunderstorms.

As a large upper level high over southern CA and southern AZ builds
slowly northeastward across NM Thursday, areas west of the central
mountains will remain dry with afternoon relative humidity falling
into the single digits to lower teens. Low level moisture will
remain entrenched to the east of the central mountains Thursday with
minimum relative humidity 15 to 20 percent near the central
mountains and 30 to 35 percent in the far eastern plains. Isolated
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the eastern plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Haines values
will be near 6 west of the central mountains Thursday. The limiting
factor for critical fire weather conditions Thursday west of the
central mountains will be light winds beneath the eastern edge of
the upper level high.

A series of weak upper level disturbances will move across UT and CO
Friday and Saturday. The passage of the systems to the north will
increase wind speeds across northern and central NM both days.
Decreasing relative humidity and Haines values between 5 and 6
Friday and Saturday could combine with the increased wind speeds to
produce critical fire weather conditions across portions of the
region both days. Right now, the central highlands appear to have
the highest chance for critical conditions, but slight changes in
the forecast winds could place other areas at risk for critical
conditions.

28

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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