Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 080546 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1146 PM MDT Fri May 7 2021

SHRA will exit eastern NM thru 09Z w/ SCT-BKN120 clearing thru
sunrise. Southwest to west winds will increase aft 15Z Saturday w/
widespread gusts of 30-40 kt aft 21Z. Very dry air, hot temps, and
deep mixing may lead to areas of BLDU, especially near KROW, KTCC,
and KFMN. SCT-BKN120 will increase again across the north and west
aft 18Z w/ gusty virga showers possible. Winds will shift to the
west-northwest areawide Saturday evening as a weak cold front slides
into the region.



.PREV DISCUSSION...230 PM MDT Fri May 7 2021...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist this evening over
eastern New Mexico, and a few may become strong to briefly severe
with potentially damaging winds and hail. Drier, warmer and windy
conditions Saturday afternoon will lead to critical fire weather
conditions across northern and central New Mexico. A cold front will
then enter northeastern New Mexico Saturday night into Sunday,
sparking shower and thunderstorm development. Moisture associated
with the front will push south and westward, and there may be a few
showers and storms over northwest New Mexico Sunday night. Low level
moisture will slosh back and forth over eastern New Mexico through
the middle of next week, with a continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms, while the west stays dry with breezy to windy



A few, potentially severe, storms will linger across the east
central and southeast plains into the evening hours before
diminishing or moving east into TX. The primary threat with storms
across the eastern plains will be damaging winds, although large
hail can not be ruled-out. Elsewhere across central NM, a few virga
showers or dry storms will persist until around sunset, with
strong/erratic wind gusts likely.

A dry slot preceding an approaching Pacific trough will overtake the
area tonight and mix down to the surface tomorrow with increasing
westerlies as the open wave trough progresses east across CO/NM. The
result will be deep layer mixing and windy conditions, with the
potential to reach advisory threshold across much of eastern and
portions of central NM. Downslope winds will help bring several
eastern plains locales to 90+ degrees Saturday afternoon. A backdoor
front will slide down the eastern plains Saturday night behind the
departing Pacific trough and may bring a few showers or storms to
northern portions of Colfax and Union Counties.


West to northwest flow aloft forecast through Wednesday with
embedded disturbances. Low level moisture will slosh back and forth
over eastern New Mexico, aided by convection over eastern Colorado
and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sunday afternoon and evening
could be interesting over northeast/east central New Mexico as
convection ignites over the Sangre de Cristo mountains and then
tracks southeastward while low level winds into the region are
southeasterly. There is also some consensus showers and a few storms
will also develop over northwest New Mexico Sunday evening and
persist into the overnight, as the flow aloft becomes somewhat
cyclonic. The west will be drier by Monday afternoon, while the east
stays under the influence of low level southeast flow. A similar
scenario exists Tuesday and potentially Wednesday, however the
northwest flow aloft starts to weaken Wednesday as an upper ridge
builds over Arizona and into southern Nevada. There is also
potential for a nightly east wind into the Rio Grande Valley but any
moisture imported will likely mix out during the daytimes.

Daytime temperatures will be rather cool, in the upper 50s and 60s,
Monday and Tuesday over northeast New Mexico while the lower
elevations of western New Mexico will see mostly 70s.

A warming and drying trend develops late Wednesday and Thursday as
the ridge passes over New Mexico. By Friday, a trough approaching
New Mexico from the west could spark convection over the central and
east. High temperatures at the lower elevations warm back up into
the 80s Thursday and Friday.




A round of showers and storms is underway and will continue into the
evening hours across central and eastern New Mexico. Storms between
the Continental Divide and the Rio Grande Valley are likely a mix of
wet and dry, so wouldn`t be surprised to see some lightning starts.
A dry slot preceding an approaching Pacific trough will move over
the area tonight and mix down to the surface Saturday with
increasing westerlies as the trough moves eat over Colorado and New
Mexico. Excellent mixing and Haines values of 6 are forecast
Saturday with widespread critical fire weather conditions. A
backdoor front will slide down the eastern plains Saturday night and
provide needed moisture for a round of wetting storms across
northeast New Mexico on Sunday. Elsewhere on Sunday, a mix of sun
and clouds is expected with the potential for virga showers and
strong/erratic wind gusts. Widespread critical fire weather
conditions are not expected Sunday, but may be spotty for an hour or
two. Look for more of the same Monday and Tuesday under moderate
westerly flow, but with a slightly drier and more unstable
atmosphere bringing an hour or two of critical fire weather
conditions to central and western portions. The potential for
critical fire weather conditions will trend down Wednesday through
Friday as an upper level ridge builds over the Great Basin and moves
slowly eastward across the Rockies.



Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for the following
zones... NMZ101>109.


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