615
FXUS65 KABQ 131934
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
134 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Showers and storms are likely each day through Monday, with
  coverage peaking on Sunday. A few storms may become severe over
  eastern areas today, over central areas Sunday, and in the east
  again Monday.

- There is a low to moderate risk of flash flooding below the
  Ruidoso area burn scars each day through Monday.

- Hot, dry, and gusty weather will return Tuesday and Wednesday
  with an increasing risk of rapid fire spread, especially across
  northwest NM Wednesday.

- There is a moderate probability (50-60%) that a Heat Advisory
  will be required for lower elevation portions of the area
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Moderate westerly flow aloft combined with daytime heating and
above average PWATs (for mid June) is resulting in another round
of scattered convection early this afternoon. Showers and storms
west of the central mountain chain will favor strong/erratic wind
gusts over wetting (>0.10") rainfall today, as the lower levels of
the atmosphere have dried relative to yesterday. The best chances
for soaking rains today will be across the eastern plains and
highlands, where surface dewpoint temperatures are currently in
the mid 40s to upper 50s. The SPC is maintaining a marginal risk
for severe storms across the east central plains today, where the
right ingredients for a large hail and damaging wind threat come
together between 4-10PM MDT. A strong backdoor cold front will
progress southwest across the area tonight, forcing a few showers
and storms and bringing gusty northeasterly winds. The front will
push through the central mountain chain overnight and create a
strong east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa
Valleys. Our forecast speeds are sitting just below advisory
threshold for KABQ, but a short-lived advisory may become
necessary early Sunday morning. Low level moisture transport
behind the front will reach the Continental Divide Sunday morning,
where convective initiation is modeled for Sunday afternoon. The
12Z NAM is particularly bullish with the ingredients for a few
strong to severe storms across central NM Sunday, advertising
0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kts in the RGV Sunday afternoon, along
with muCAPE of 1300J/kg and LIs of -4 to -5C. The atmosphere will
be relatively stable across eastern NM behind the front on Sunday,
with temperatures 15-20 degrees below average. That said, a
stable lower boundary layer up to the east slopes of the central
mountain chain won`t be conducive for well developed convection
and will lower the threat for burn scar flash flooding in Lincoln
County Sunday afternoon/evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Shear and instability will trend up some Monday with warmer
conditions overall, bringing an increased threat for strong to
severe storms by afternoon. The main threat corridor will extend
from northeast NM southwest to the central and south central
highlands, where the NAM is advertising 0-6km bulk shear of
40-50kts and muCAPE of 2,500-3,000J/kg. However, dry northwest
flow aloft will begin to penetrate further southeast into central
NM and act to limit convective coverage Monday afternoon. Dry
northwest flow aloft will then spread further east across the
state Tue/Wed, shutting down chances for convection except for
isolated storms across far easter NM late Tuesday. Temperatures
will trend up Tue/Wed, along with heat impacts. Wednesday will be
the hottest day of the work week, with highs reaching near 100
degrees in Albuquerque and near 105 in Roswell. There is a
moderate probability (50-60%) that a Heat Advisory will be
required for lower elevations portions of NM Wednesday. A backdoor
front will replenish moisture across eastern NM Thursday,
bringing renewed chances for showers and storms Thu/Fri. Western
NM will likely remain hot and mostly dry Thu/Fri under the
influence of building high pressure aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are generally forecast to persist, with
a few exceptions. Areas of blowing dust created by virga showers
and dry thunderstorms across western NM may occasionally reduce
visibility into the MVFR category later this afternoon and early
evening. Wind gusts of 35-45kts will be common with scattered
showers and storms this afternoon/evening. A backdoor cold front
will surge southwest through the area overnight into Sunday
morning, resulting in a strong east canyon wind at KABQ. An
Airport Weather Warning for gusts to between 35-40kts will likely
be required for KABQ. Low stratus is forecast to fill in behind
the front across eastern NM late tonight through Sunday morning,
resulting in deterioration at KROW down to IFR by 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Chances for wetting storms will persist across the area through
Monday, before warming and drying take hold on Tue/Wed. Showers
and storms across western NM this afternoon will favor
gusty/erratic wind over wetting rainfall. A strong backdoor cold
front will progress southwest across the area overnight,
increasing humidity and focusing chances for wetting storms
between the Continental Divide and Central Mountain Chain Sunday
afternoon and evening. Showers and storms that develop west of the
Continental Divide on Sunday will likely be of the drier variety,
with potential for lightning ignitions. Dry northwest flow aloft
will take over Tuesday and trend up some Wednesday, spreading the
chances for critical fire weather conditions from the Four Corners
area southeast into central NM. Another backdoor front will bring
increased humidity and chances for wetting precipitation to
eastern NM Thu/Fri, while hot and dry conditions persist across
western NM with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  94  60  94 /   5  20  20   5
Dulce...........................  50  83  48  86 /   5  50  30  20
Cuba............................  56  79  53  84 /   5  50  40  10
Gallup..........................  53  87  53  89 /  10  20  20  20
El Morro........................  54  83  53  84 /  10  20  30  20
Grants..........................  54  85  53  87 /  10  30  30  20
Quemado.........................  56  85  56  86 /  20  30  20  10
Magdalena.......................  62  81  58  83 /  10  60  50  40
Datil...........................  58  82  56  83 /  20  50  40  20
Reserve.........................  51  90  51  89 /  10  20  20  20
Glenwood........................  55  96  54  93 /   5  10  20  20
Chama...........................  47  75  45  79 /   5  60  40  30
Los Alamos......................  61  76  57  80 /  10  50  70  40
Pecos...........................  54  74  49  81 /  10  40  60  30
Cerro/Questa....................  53  73  50  77 /  10  70  60  50
Red River.......................  44  64  43  68 /  20  70  70  60
Angel Fire......................  42  68  40  73 /  30  60  70  40
Taos............................  55  76  50  80 /  10  50  60  30
Mora............................  51  68  48  77 /  40  60  70  30
Espanola........................  61  83  56  86 /  10  50  60  20
Santa Fe........................  59  77  54  81 /  10  50  60  30
Santa Fe Airport................  59  80  53  84 /  10  40  50  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  83  63  88 /  10  40  60  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  84  61  89 /  10  40  50  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  87  59  91 /  10  30  50  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  85  61  89 /  10  40  60  20
Belen...........................  62  88  59  91 /  10  30  40  20
Bernalillo......................  63  85  59  90 /  10  40  60  20
Bosque Farms....................  60  87  56  90 /  10  30  40  20
Corrales........................  64  85  60  90 /  10  40  60  20
Los Lunas.......................  60  87  57  90 /  10  30  40  20
Placitas........................  66  81  61  87 /  10  40  60  20
Rio Rancho......................  66  84  61  90 /  10  40  60  20
Socorro.........................  68  89  64  90 /  10  40  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  76  55  83 /  10  40  70  20
Tijeras.........................  62  79  56  85 /  10  40  60  20
Edgewood........................  58  76  54  85 /  10  30  60  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  78  50  86 /  10  20  50  20
Clines Corners..................  53  70  50  81 /  20  20  50  20
Mountainair.....................  58  77  54  84 /  10  20  50  20
Gran Quivira....................  57  76  53  83 /  10  20  40  20
Carrizozo.......................  63  81  59  83 /  20  30  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  56  71  53  75 /  20  40  60  50
Capulin.........................  46  66  46  73 /  50  50  50  60
Raton...........................  50  70  47  78 /  50  60  50  50
Springer........................  53  71  49  79 /  50  50  60  40
Las Vegas.......................  52  68  50  78 /  30  50  60  40
Clayton.........................  52  68  52  76 /  50  30  30  20
Roy.............................  52  67  51  76 /  40  30  60  20
Conchas.........................  57  73  56  84 /  40  20  50  20
Santa Rosa......................  57  71  56  83 /  40  20  40  20
Tucumcari.......................  59  73  57  83 /  60  30  40  10
Clovis..........................  59  72  57  79 /  60  40  40  20
Portales........................  61  74  58  81 /  50  40  50  30
Fort Sumner.....................  60  74  58  84 /  50  20  30  10
Roswell.........................  67  81  63  84 /  30  30  60  20
Picacho.........................  59  74  57  81 /  20  30  70  30
Elk.............................  57  74  54  78 /  20  50  70  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11