Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 181730 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1130 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

VFR conditions prevail with breezy sw/w winds mixing down this
afternoon. Gusts are only expected to peak out at 15-25kts by mid-
to-late afternoon. An isolated strong thunderstorm cannot entirely be
ruled out in the area near and between KTCC, KCVN, and KROW but
confidence is too low to include in the TAF. Light and variable winds
overnight with mid-level bkn cigs trying to work north into the
forecast area from Old Mexico Thursday morning. This mid-level cloud
deck should further diminish probabilities of any lower cigs
developing over southeastern NM.



.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019...
A dry and slightly warmer day is on tap for today before moisture
returns from the south on Thursday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms return to areas east of the Continental Divide
Thursday afternoon and evening. A few of the thunderstorms near the
Texas border could become strong to severe. Drier air works back into
western and central portions of the state Friday behind a weak
Pacific cold front. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible
once again near the Texas line and across the southeast plains both
Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will be near to slightly above
average today and Thursday before dropping to slightly below average
central and west on Friday.


Dry air aloft has overtaken much of the forecast area with near
surface moisture remaining. A couple of showers or thunderstorms are
possible over the east slopes of the south-central mountains and near
the TX line south of I-40 while the remainder of the area is dry and
slightly warmer than yesterday. Flow aloft backs tonight ahead of a
relatively deep closed upper-level low dropping south through the
western Great Basin, drawing moisture back up from the south
Thursday. Split the difference between the NAM12 and the global
models with regard to shower and storm chances for Thursday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will develop initially over
southern NM late Thursday morning and move from north to south during
the day into the evening hours. Strong to severe storms are possible
near the TX border Thursday afternoon. The associated Pacific cold
front takes its sweet time moving in from the west Thursday night
and models have since backed off on the strength of the CAA for
Friday. High temperatures cool several degrees most places for
western and central areas while the east remains nearly unchanged
thanks to downsloping effects. Strong to severe storms are once
again possible near the TX line late Friday afternoon into Friday

GFS gets excited for Saturday across the east-central and southeast
portions of the forecast area, developing a strong return flow and
scattered strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon. ECMWF has more
of a southwest flow aloft and keeps storms confined to far southeast

Drier air along with a transitory ridge moves in for Sunday. Then
things get interesting. GFS and ECWMF are in good agreement with
regard to dropping another deep closed low southward into the PACNW
late-day Sunday into Sunday night. The flow aloft over the southwest
U.S. backs and starts to advect deep sub- tropical moisture into AZ
and far southwest NM Sunday night. Then the model forecasts start to
diverge somewhat. The GFS remains rather consistent, bringing what
is currently Tropical Storm Lorena northeastward ahead of a deep
closed low now over CA across the Baja Peninsula on Monday and
bringing the remnant circulation, moisture and heavy rainfall
northward up the RGV of NM Monday night into Tuesday morning. ECWMF
continues to merge Tropical Storm Mario and Lorena into a single blob
that eventually gets pulled north into AZ and NM Monday night and
Tuesday. The devil is always in the details but the ensemble means
from both the GFS and ECMWF agree that early next week could bet wet
to very wet.

Meteorological autumn is continuing where spring left off with a
highly positive Pacific-North American Teleconnection Pattern. The
million dollar question is will it continue into winter? It is after
all considered a "preferred" atmospheric state once it develops.
Let`s hope.



A warming/drying trend will continue today, with temperatures above
normal east and near normal west. Isolated wetting storms are
possible across the east central plains this afternoon and evening.
Moisture will surge back over the area tonight into Thursday as a
potent upper level trough progresses east across the Great Basin,
resulting in a robust round of wetting storms Thursday afternoon and
night across central and eastern New Mexico. Dry westerlies will
penetrate east across northern New Mexico Friday into the weekend,
but chances for wetting storms will persist Fri/Sat across the
eastern plans.

The latest medium range model solutions continue to show a wetting
event shaping up across the Desert Southwest and New Mexico early to
mid next week as a potent upper low drops south to the AZ/CA border
and cuts off, while drawing tropical moisture north over the region.





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