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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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000 FXUS65 KABQ 260902 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 302 AM MDT Tue May 26 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Much warmer weather will begin building into New Mexico starting today as strong high pressure takes hold of the region. A couple light rain showers with gusty and erratic winds are possible over the northern mountains today and again Wednesday, however most locations will remain dry. The next back door front will move into eastern New Mexico Thursday then into the Rio Grande Valley Thursday night. The coverage of showers and storms will increase over eastern New Mexico Thursday then across parts of northern and central New Mexico Friday through Sunday. This pattern will feel monsoon-like with very warm temperatures and daily rounds of slow-moving showers and storms around the higher terrain. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... Water vapor imagery this morning shows one upper- level low spinning over west TX while another larger low continues to sit well off the coast of CA. Between these two features, drier and warmer northwest flow will develop over the area. The PWAT on last evening`s sounding dropped to 0.37" and models support drier air continuing to work its way into the state today. The exception may be across the northern mountains where models hint at some lingering mid-level moisture. The HREF and HRRR are picking up on isolated virga showers developing in this area by late afternoon, but confidence is low. Otherwise, temperatures will be about 5 to 15 degrees warmer compared to yesterday, but will remain near to slightly below normal for late May. As a ridge builds over the desert SW, the warming trend will continue into Wednesday with highs returning to above normal. Precipitation chances do improve for the northern mountains as mid- level moisture further increases, but lower dewpoints will likely support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. With increasing mixing heights, virga with gusty and erratic winds will be possible. Coverage of showers and virga will decrease with the loss of daytime heating. LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... A weak upper level shortwave ejecting southeast from the central Rockies Wednesday will force convective initiation along the Front Range of Colorado Wednesday night. 00Z models are in very good agreement shunting a convectively aided back door front southwest into eastern NM thru Thursday morning. This moist frontal boundary then serves as the focus for shower and storm development along the east slopes of the central mt chain Thursday afternoon. Storms that develop with this frontal push Thursday will then force the airmass farther westward thru the RGV Thursday night on possibly strong gap winds. Meanwhile, a strong H5 ridge will be building eastward from Arizona Thursday night and Friday. The 00Z NAEFS shows impressive PW values near +2 standard deviations over NM beneath this upper ridge as it drifts east thru the weekend. There is improving confidence from extended models with support from NBM trends that daily rounds of showers and storms will begin increasing over northern and central NM thru early next week. 15/Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... Temperatures will continue to warm through Wednesday with an overall drier pattern in place. The exception will be across north central NM on Wednesday where increasing mid-level moisture will result in a few high terrain showers and storms. A few of these storms may be dry with gusty and erratic winds and little measurable precipitation. Another cold front will move quickly through the eastern plains on Thursday, bringing a drop in temperatures and increasing precipitation chances mainly across the northeast. Moisture will continue to increase into next week resulting in daily rounds of showers and storms likely favor the northern and western high terrain. 15 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to diminish over the area. VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period with generally light winds overnight. Gusty east winds at KABQ will gradually relax after about 08Z. Moderate westerly gusts will redevelop after 18Z. 15 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 82 48 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 77 39 85 41 / 0 0 10 0 Cuba............................ 76 45 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 81 41 88 44 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 77 42 85 44 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 79 41 87 45 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 77 44 86 48 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 79 52 86 56 / 0 0 5 0 Datil........................... 77 47 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 83 42 90 44 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 89 50 95 52 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 71 38 79 39 / 10 0 40 10 Los Alamos...................... 72 53 79 56 / 0 0 10 5 Pecos........................... 72 49 79 53 / 5 0 10 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 72 42 78 45 / 10 0 30 10 Red River....................... 64 36 71 38 / 10 0 30 20 Angel Fire...................... 66 32 72 34 / 10 0 30 20 Taos............................ 74 39 79 42 / 5 0 20 10 Mora............................ 71 43 77 46 / 10 0 20 10 Espanola........................ 78 49 85 53 / 0 0 5 5 Santa Fe........................ 73 50 82 54 / 5 0 10 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 76 47 84 51 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 80 56 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 82 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 54 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 83 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 83 51 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 83 53 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 83 50 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 84 52 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 83 50 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 79 56 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 82 54 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 85 54 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 75 52 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 78 52 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 76 46 84 50 / 0 0 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 41 85 45 / 5 0 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 73 45 81 48 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 76 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 76 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 78 53 87 56 / 5 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 72 51 80 53 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 71 45 78 47 / 10 5 10 20 Raton........................... 76 43 81 47 / 10 0 10 10 Springer........................ 77 43 82 49 / 5 0 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 73 43 79 47 / 5 0 10 5 Clayton......................... 78 50 83 51 / 10 0 0 5 Roy............................. 76 49 82 52 / 5 0 5 5 Conchas......................... 82 51 88 56 / 5 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 81 50 87 55 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 83 53 89 55 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 78 51 86 54 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 80 51 87 54 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 81 53 90 56 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 84 55 94 58 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 79 53 88 55 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 77 51 86 53 / 5 0 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
- National Weather Service
- Albuquerque, NM Weather Forecast Office
- 2341 Clark Carr Loop SE
- Albuquerque, NM 87106-5633
- (505) 243-0702
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- Page last modified: Mar 10th, 2020 21:02 UTC