Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 260902
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
302 AM MDT Tue May 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Much warmer weather will begin building into New Mexico starting
today as strong high pressure takes hold of the region. A couple
light rain showers with gusty and erratic winds are possible over the
northern mountains today and again Wednesday, however most locations
will remain dry. The next back door front will move into eastern New
Mexico Thursday then into the Rio Grande Valley Thursday night. The
coverage of showers and storms will increase over eastern New Mexico
Thursday then across parts of northern and central New Mexico Friday
through Sunday. This pattern will feel monsoon-like with very warm
temperatures and daily rounds of slow-moving showers and storms
around the higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Water vapor imagery this morning shows one upper- level low spinning
over west TX while another larger low continues to sit well off the
coast of CA. Between these two features, drier and warmer northwest
flow will develop over the area. The PWAT on last evening`s sounding
dropped to 0.37" and models support drier air continuing to work its
way into the state today. The exception may be across the northern
mountains where models hint at some lingering mid-level moisture. The
HREF and HRRR are picking up on isolated virga showers developing in
this area by late afternoon, but confidence is low. Otherwise,
temperatures will be about 5 to 15 degrees warmer compared to
yesterday, but will remain near to slightly below normal for late
May.

As a ridge builds over the desert SW, the warming trend will
continue into Wednesday with highs returning to above normal.
Precipitation chances do improve for the northern mountains as mid-
level moisture further increases, but lower dewpoints will likely
support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms. With increasing mixing
heights, virga with gusty and erratic winds will be possible.
Coverage of showers and virga will decrease with the loss of daytime
heating.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A weak upper level shortwave ejecting southeast from the central
Rockies Wednesday will force convective initiation along the Front
Range of Colorado Wednesday night. 00Z models are in very good
agreement shunting a convectively aided back door front southwest
into eastern NM thru Thursday morning. This moist frontal boundary
then serves as the focus for shower and storm development along the
east slopes of the central mt chain Thursday afternoon. Storms that
develop with this frontal push Thursday will then force the airmass
farther westward thru the RGV Thursday night on possibly strong gap
winds. Meanwhile, a strong H5 ridge will be building eastward from
Arizona Thursday night and Friday. The 00Z NAEFS shows impressive PW
values near +2 standard deviations over NM beneath this upper ridge
as it drifts east thru the weekend. There is improving confidence
from extended models with support from NBM trends that daily rounds
of showers and storms will begin increasing over northern and central
NM thru early next week.

15/Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will continue to warm through Wednesday with an overall
drier pattern in place. The exception will be across north central
NM on Wednesday where increasing mid-level moisture will result in a
few high terrain showers and storms. A few of these storms may be
dry with gusty and erratic winds and little measurable
precipitation. Another cold front will move quickly through the
eastern plains on Thursday, bringing a drop in temperatures and
increasing precipitation chances mainly across the northeast.
Moisture will continue to increase into next week resulting in daily
rounds of showers and storms likely favor the northern and western
high terrain.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to diminish over the area.
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period with
generally light winds overnight. Gusty east winds at KABQ will
gradually relax after about 08Z. Moderate westerly gusts will
redevelop after 18Z.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  82  48  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  77  39  85  41 /   0   0  10   0
Cuba............................  76  45  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  81  41  88  44 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  77  42  85  44 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  79  41  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  77  44  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  79  52  86  56 /   0   0   5   0
Datil...........................  77  47  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  83  42  90  44 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  89  50  95  52 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  71  38  79  39 /  10   0  40  10
Los Alamos......................  72  53  79  56 /   0   0  10   5
Pecos...........................  72  49  79  53 /   5   0  10   5
Cerro/Questa....................  72  42  78  45 /  10   0  30  10
Red River.......................  64  36  71  38 /  10   0  30  20
Angel Fire......................  66  32  72  34 /  10   0  30  20
Taos............................  74  39  79  42 /   5   0  20  10
Mora............................  71  43  77  46 /  10   0  20  10
Espanola........................  78  49  85  53 /   0   0   5   5
Santa Fe........................  73  50  82  54 /   5   0  10   5
Santa Fe Airport................  76  47  84  51 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  56  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  57  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  54  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  83  55  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  83  51  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  83  53  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  83  50  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  84  52  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  83  50  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  79  56  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  82  54  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  85  54  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  52  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  78  52  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  76  46  84  50 /   0   0   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  41  85  45 /   5   0   5   0
Clines Corners..................  73  45  81  48 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  76  49  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  76  49  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  78  53  87  56 /   5   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  72  51  80  53 /   5   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  71  45  78  47 /  10   5  10  20
Raton...........................  76  43  81  47 /  10   0  10  10
Springer........................  77  43  82  49 /   5   0  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  73  43  79  47 /   5   0  10   5
Clayton.........................  78  50  83  51 /  10   0   0   5
Roy.............................  76  49  82  52 /   5   0   5   5
Conchas.........................  82  51  88  56 /   5   0   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  81  50  87  55 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  83  53  89  55 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  78  51  86  54 /  10   0   0   0
Portales........................  80  51  87  54 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  81  53  90  56 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  84  55  94  58 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  79  53  88  55 /   5   0   0   0
Elk.............................  77  51  86  53 /   5   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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