Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 181144 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 AM MDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A low pressure system over the Great Basin will continue drawing
moist east-southeast flow into NM today. Widespread IFR low cigs,
fog, light rain, and drizzle are occurring along and east of the
central mt chain. These conditions will remain unchanged for the
next 18 hrs. A couple terminals will hover around airport minimums
for several hours through late morning. Central and western NM will
see widespread low cigs today however most decks will be VFR with
only periodic excursions to MVFR possible. The latest guidance shows
a few showers in the Rio Grande Valley aft 20Z so that may need to
be added to the next TAF cycle. Slow improvement is likely tonight
as drier westerly flow develops over NM.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MDT Thu Oct 18 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Except for some cooling with periods of rain across the eastern
plains this afternoon, high temperatures will trend upward today and
especially Friday. An upper level low pressure system that has been
stalled over Arizona and Utah will finally weaken and shift eastward
across the central Rockies tonight and Friday. Drier air will filter
over northern and central New Mexico from the north in the wake of
the exiting system with abundant sunshine along and north of Highway
60 by Friday afternoon. Easterly surface winds will deliver a few to
several degrees of cooling across central and eastern areas Saturday
afternoon, then the warming trend will continue most places into
early next week. An upper level trough will pass slowly eastward over
the central and southern Rockies during the first half of next week
with a chance for rain showers, thunderstorms and very high terrain
snow showers. Precipitation will favor southern and western areas
until Tuesday, when precipitation will become widespread and
temperatures will fall again. Showers will linger mainly east of the
continental divide on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With two weather systems crossing, temperatures will remain below
normal for the next week. The coldest highs should occur today as
readings remain around 10 to 27 degrees below normal.

Rain showers will be possible over western areas today, but the best
chance for precipitation will be across the east as the weakening
upper level low pressure system draws abundant low level moisture
into the plains with east and southeasterly upslope flow. Areas of
fog will be dense in spots this morning along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain. As the weakening storm system finally ejects
eastward across the central Rockies tonight, drier low level air will
advect into the forecast area from the north. Periods of rain and
patchy fog should linger through tonight though, mainly south of the
Caprock and as far west as the south central mountains. Dry weather
is expected Friday, except for a few showers over the southern
mountains.

The next upper level trough crossing from the west during the first
half of the coming week will tap some subtropical moisture. It will
be a warmer system, so the snow level will be very high. Temperatures
will climb through the beginning of the event, even as precipitation
begins falling over southern and western areas on Sunday and Monday.
The base of the upper level trough will cross on Tuesday and Tuesday
night with some cooling and widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Much of the forecast area has the potential to receive wetting rain
with the amounts over a half inch possible in the mountains and
across the east central and southeast plains. Drier air will begin
pushing into the west again on Wednesday.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There are no fire weather concerns outside of widespread poor to
fair vent rates the next 5 to 7 days. Overnight humidity recoveries
will be excellent almost every night with near to slightly below
normal temperatures, minimum humidity in the 35 to 45% range, and
relatively light winds.

A weak shortwave ridge will build north into NM Friday and Saturday
and allow temperatures to warm closer to normal for mid October.
Some patchy fog is possible each night with clearing skies and high
humidity. Another upper level low will develop west of NM Sunday and
draw up more moisture for showers and storms through Tuesday. The
heaviest precip is expected over the eastern plains. Temps will be
too warm in the higher terrain to bring much snow below 11,000`.

A pattern change to drier, northwest flow will begin Wednesday with
near normal temps and daily bouts of afternoon breezes through the
end of next week.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
An upper level low pressure system nearly stationary over the Great
Basin continues to draw in moist east-southeast flow into NM tonight.
Significant aviation impacts continue along and east of the central
mt chain where widespread low cigs, fog, light rain, and drizzle are
occurring. These conditions will remain unchanged for the next 18 to
24 hrs. The most significant impacts are expected around KLVS where
airport minimums are likely for several hours around sunrise. Central
and western NM will also see widespread low cigs however most decks
will be VFR with only periodic excursions to MVFR. Slow improvement
is likely after 03Z Thursday as drier westerly flow develops over NM.

42

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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