Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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786
FXUS65 KABQ 271126 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
426 AM MST Thu Feb 27 2020

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and will persist through the TAF period.
Gusty northwest winds are forecast at KFMN this afternoon, but
otherwise light winds will prevail.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...238 AM MST Thu Feb 27 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
High temperatures will warm by 10 to 15 degrees over yesterday`s
readings with additional warming forecast for Friday. The warming
continues Saturday as westerly breezes increase. Sunday continues to
look like the windiest day of the weekend, especially east. A storm
system approaching from the west will bring shower and mountain
snow shower chances to far northern NM late-day Sunday and Sunday
night with shower chances spreading south and southeastward Monday
and Monday night. Snow showers could linger across central and
southern New Mexico into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A weak shortwave trough will eject out of the central Rockies today
and push a backdoor front into the northeast and east central
plains, but will be nothing more than a wind shift with no cold air
advection expected. Dry northwest flow will persist today, with
breezy conditions developing in the usual northwest plateau to east
central highlands corridor. Clines Corners is already blowing
northwest at 18kts early this morning. Otherwise, the warming trend
will continue through the end of the week with daytime temperatures
rising above normal areawide by Friday when an upper level ridge
will transition east over the state.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Rising heights will result in approximately 10 to 15 degrees of
warming areawide today. Light to locally moderate northwest breezes
will develop during the afternoon, primarily west of the central
mountain chain. The warming trend continues on Friday but increasing
high clouds may make it feel similar to Thursday`s readings. Westerly
flow aloft remains on track for Saturday and Sunday, ahead of a
relatively deep upper-level trough/closed low over CA and the eastern
Great Basin. Increasing west winds will result Saturday afternoon,
mainly for western and eastern portions of the forecast area. Winds
increase further Sunday with surface low pressure in far northeast
NM falling to ~997mb during the afternoon. A few light showers with
snow above 8500 feet could result near the CO in the Tusas and
northern Sangres Sunday.

00Z GFS and ECWMF are in very good agreement with regard to a closed
low sagging southeastward through southern CA Monday. Relatively
moist southwest flow aloft ahead of the low center will keep showers
going over the northwest third to half of the state on Monday. GFS
now gets the south-central mountains involved in the shower chances
Monday afternoon. Latest model runs are a bit more upright or
meridional and deeper with the closed low center over AZ on Monday
whereas previous runs were more positively tilted. GFS is also
forecasting a backdoor front getting into the mix Monday night
bringing in Gulf moisture from west TX. Main takeaway is that this
system could get more interesting than previously thought with
better chances for rain and snow Monday through Tuesday for many
portions of the state. Forecast models also agree that a trailing
upper- level wave in northwest flow aloft will likely send a stout
backdoor cold front into eastern NM Tuesday night and Wednesday.

11/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A very dry airmass continues over the area with a warming trend
underway that will persist into Saturday. Daytime temperatures will
rise above normal areawide by Friday. Vent rates will improve today
with daytime mixing of northwest flow aloft, but will take a dip
Friday when an upper level ridge transitions east into the state.
The westerlies will trend up over the weekend as an upper level low
dives southeast over California. An hour or two of critical fire
weather conditions are possible Saturday afternoon across the
northeast and east central plains with wind speeds being the only
limiter. The upper level low will swing east Monday and move over
southern New Mexico Tuesday, bringing cooler temperatures and
increasing chances for wetting precipitation. Strong winds are
forecast Wednesday as the jet stream dips south over the southern
Rockies and northern New Mexico.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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