076
FXUS65 KABQ 132343 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
443 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 435 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

- Slick spots remain possible tonight through tomorrow morning across
  the northern mountain highways as light snow showers taper off
  during the evening.

- The risk of frostbite and hypothermia due to prolonged exposure
  to very cold temperatures will remain a hazard for the next few
  mornings. Temperatures trend warmer mid-week.

- Much below average temperatures return areawide this weekend.
  The coldest temperatures and snow chances will favor northern
  and eastern areas. Forecast confidence is lower if snow chances
  will extend to western and central areas.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

With winter weather clearing today, conditions look to remain dry
and temperatures will gradually warm up through the end of the work
week. Friday will be windy for the central mountain chain and
adjacent highlands. The weather takes a turn on Saturday with an
incoming winter system bringing widespread snowfall, mainly for the
northern and eastern parts of the state through Sunday. A cold
Arctic airmass will bring frigid temperatures for the majority of
New Mexico, especially for eastern areas, where highs may be as much
as 30 below normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 320 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

A band of snow showers currently between Albuquerque and Santa Fe
will continue migrating northward this afternoon before eventually
piddling out over the northern mountains. Some very modest
instability has developed where clearing has occurred, hence the
increase in cumulus in west-central areas. This wave of snow showers
will be even more intermittent and snow will be more graupel as
opposed to the aggregates most areas have seen thus far today.
Accumulations through the evening will be less than 1" in almost all
areas, but localized slick spots will develop under heavier showers.

Drier air will continue pushing in from the west tonight,
overrunning the shallow moist airmass. This along with the
additional soil moisture provided via melting snow or snowpack may
help patchy fog develop late tonight when low clouds begin to clear.
The favored locations will be the valleys and low lying areas with
snowpack in the northern and eastern NM, but wouldn`t be shocked if
some patchy fog developed as far west as Gallup by the early morning
hours. Any ephemeral fog should dissipate by mid-morning after the
sun comes out. That being said, light winds will make it difficult
for valley inversions to erode so temps will remain below seasonal
averages areawide again tomorrow afternoon. Strong inversions
develop again Tuesday night when there is low confidence (10-20%
chance) of mountain valley fog development in areas such as Angel
Fire. Another northwesterly shortwave will attempt to dive into the
state Tuesday night, squeezing out a few flurries in the northern
mountains at most.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

The long term period begins relatively quiet as New mexico finds
itself in a col or neutral point in the synoptic upper level
pattern. In between the departing trough to the east, and the Rex
Block low off of SoCal to our west, upper level ridging will build
over the state for the next several days. As the Rex Block begins to
deteriorate on Thursday, the high pressure ridging above the SoCal
low will stretch over western CONUS and looks to raise 500mb
heights to 576-570 dm, leading to warmer temperatures on Thursday
and Friday. Meanwhile, the Rex Block low will get picked up by an
approaching northern trough and turn into an open wave over New
Mexico. The passage of this trough will create some windy
conditions over the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands
to the east, as well as some low chances of snow for the western
mountains. With a surface low near 1000mb over the Texas Panhandle
and a 700mb speed max of about 50kts, daytime heating should be
able to mix down higher wind speeds down to the surface. As a
result, bumped up winds closer to higher end of guidance,
approaching Wind Advisory criteria for the central highlands.
Downsloping should also aid in warming temperatures for the
eastern plains, so bumped up highs on Friday to the low 60s, about
3 to 10 above average for this time of year.

The weather takes a sharp turn back towards winter to being the
weekend. Longwave troughing over the majority of CONUS will bring in
a very cold arctic airmass, particularly for eastern New Mexico,
where there is high confidence for temperatures well below average.
This front also looks to bring widespread snowfall, mainly for
northern and eastern New Mexico. With the system still 6 days out,
there is uncertainty on amounts of snowfall, but the highest
confidence is for the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains
and adjacent highlands to get the highest amounts. As the trough
digs south, a backdoor cold front will sweep through eastern New
Mexico, while western New Mexico will get some breezy westerlies.
These winds will funnel south and converge over a surface low along
the NM-MX border. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures look
to be 10 to 15 below average for this time of year for western and
central NM. Eastern New Mexico looks to drop as much as 20 to 30
below average for this time of year. Apparent temperature may drop
to the low single digits for several zones, approaching Cold Weather
Advisory criteria. The main area of uncertainty with this system
is how far west this cold air mass will push into NM. Ensemble
cluster analysis indicates about 60% of members trending towards
higher heights over the intermountain west, this will keep the
colder longwave troughing and airmass farther east. About 20% of
members (made up mostly of the Canadian ensembles) bring in much
deeper troughing farther west towards SoCal, this solution would
lead to a much more widespread cold weather event with greater
impacts beyond the eastern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 435 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

Snow showers will persist over central NM thru around 10pm as an
upper level trough axis shifts slowly southeast over the region.
A few of these showers will be briefly heavy with IFR cigs/vsbys
at times. AIRMETs for icing and turbulence are in effect within
this same area as well. Much drier air aloft will be filtering
into the area overnight but the boundary layer airmass may be
near-saturated until after sunrise Tuesday. Forecast confidence
is low on the development of freezing fog before dawn but it is a
possibility for several terminals given the setup. At this time,
no mention has been placed in the forecast but it may be added for
the 06Z package if confidence increases. Tuesday will be drier
areawide with remnant mid level cloud cover and slight northwest
breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

Light snow showers in central and northern areas will taper off this
evening, giving way to dry conditions through at least Thursday.
During this same time, poor ventilation will prevail thanks to light
winds and strong nocturnal inversions. A weak shortwave over southern
CA will eject inland on Friday, increasing winds and improving
ventilation in the process. Some very light snow showers are
possible in western and central areas, with accumulations remaining
below 1". Cold air advection dominates Friday through the weekend as
a gusty backdoor front pushes down the eastern plains. Minor to
moderate snow accumulations are possible in northern and eastern
areas with low confidence (10-30% chance) that this snow extends
westward into central and western areas. There is high confidence
(>80% chance) in below average temps across the entire forecast area
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................   9  38   9  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................   3  37   1  41 /   5   5   0   0
Cuba............................   7  35   7  41 /  20   0   5   0
Gallup..........................  -1  38  -2  44 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  10  37  10  42 /   5   0   0   0
Grants..........................   3  38   3  42 /  20   0   5   5
Quemado.........................   9  38   8  44 /   5   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  19  37  18  40 /  10   0   0   0
Datil...........................  13  36  12  41 /   5   0   0   0
Reserve.........................   6  48   6  53 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  19  51  20  55 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................   1  31   2  37 /  10   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  15  33  15  37 /  20   0   5   0
Pecos...........................  12  37  12  41 /  10   0   5   5
Cerro/Questa....................   6  31   6  35 /  10   0   0   0
Red River.......................   2  23   3  29 /  10   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  -6  29 -10  34 /  20   5   5   5
Taos............................   3  34   1  38 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................   7  36   6  42 /  20   0   0   0
Espanola........................  12  40   9  44 /  20   0   5   0
Santa Fe........................  15  35  15  39 /  20   0   5   5
Santa Fe Airport................  15  38  14  42 /  10   0   5   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  24  40  23  42 /  20   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  21  41  20  43 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  18  43  17  45 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  21  42  19  44 /  10   0   5   0
Belen...........................  15  44  12  44 /  10   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  18  43  17  45 /  10   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  13  43  10  44 /  10   0   0   5
Corrales........................  19  43  17  45 /  10   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  14  43  11  44 /  10   0   0   5
Placitas........................  20  38  19  41 /  10   0   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  20  42  19  44 /  10   0   5   0
Socorro.........................  22  45  20  46 /  10   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  16  34  15  37 /  20   0   5   5
Tijeras.........................  18  36  18  39 /  20   0   5   5
Edgewood........................  15  36  14  40 /  10   0   5   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............   6  38   3  41 /   5   0   5   5
Clines Corners..................  13  35  12  37 /   5   0   5   5
Mountainair.....................  15  37  13  39 /   5   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  13  38  13  40 /   5   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  21  44  21  45 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  18  39  18  43 /   0   0   0   5
Capulin.........................   9  30  10  36 /  10   0   0   0
Raton...........................   9  36   9  43 /  10   0   0   0
Springer........................   9  38   8  43 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  11  38  11  42 /  10   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  19  40  17  45 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  15  38  14  43 /  10   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  19  45  18  48 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  18  43  18  45 /  10   0   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  19  43  17  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  23  45  22  46 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  20  46  20  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  17  45  17  47 /   0   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  22  47  27  48 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  20  46  23  48 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  19  46  21  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...42