National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KABQ 292113
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
310 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023

Drier air will limit thunderstorms to northeast and east central New
Mexico Tuesday but isolated strong to severe storms are possible in
the far northeast corner of the state. Storm chances increase
Wednesday as an upper level storm system approaches from the west
and draws abundant moisture back into eastern New Mexico. A few
storms may be strong to severe over the eastern plains Wednesday
afternoon and evening where locally heavy rain is also possible.
Central and western New Mexico will be dry and windy Wednesday with
critical fire weather conditions possible in the afternoon over
portions of the southwest and Middle Rio Grande Valley. A wetter
pattern will develop by the upcoming weekend with greater storm
coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023

Much quieter weather expected for the remainder of the afternoon
with the ridge axis overhead and drier air filtering into the state.
However, we continue to expect a few storms across far northeast NM
through the evening. With northwest flow over this area, localized
effective bulk shear values may near 25kt, resulting in a few strong
storms or perhaps a stray severe storm. But, overall, the rest of
the evening will not be as active as previous nights. After the
storms diminish, low clouds may return near the OK and TX borders
overnight as low level moisture sloshes back to the west.

Meanwhile, the ridge axis will shift eastward overnight, and
southwest flow aloft will spread over the area Tuesday. Expect some
breezy conditions through the afternoon for much of the area, with
another round of storms across northeast NM. In general, storms
across northeast NM on Tuesday should be similar to today, with a
few strong to perhaps severe storms possible, mainly across Union
County. Otherwise, expect a bit more cloud cover on Tuesday
afternoon with high temperatures similar to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023

An upper low moving from west to east over northern and central
Arizona will help draw moisture back into eastern New Mexico
Wednesday and Wednesday night, sparking a return of dryline
thunderstorms over the east, of which a few could become strong to
severe. South winds will increase Wednesday as the low approaches
and isolated locales may hit wind advisory criteria so will have to
monitor forecast wind trends. Locally heavy rain will be possible
Wednesday night and into Thursday over portions over of the
northeast and east central plains. The upper low swings through the
Four Corners Thursday, pushing the dryline back toward the eastern
New Mexico/Texas border. Showers and storms become more widespread
again by Saturday as a weak upper low evolves over New Mexico
although models differ where this feature will be located. The
forecast weather pattern early next week is quite convoluted but
moisture appears to remain over central and eastern New Mexico. With
the return of moisture, high temperatures will be trending cooler
and several degrees below normal by Thursday and through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Mon May 29 2023

VFR conditions will prevail today with much less shower and
thunderstorm activity than in recent days. However, a few storms
remain possible across northeast NM late this afternoon and
evening which may produce gusty winds and hail. Low clouds (MVFR
cigs) may return overnight near the TX and OK borders but will
dissipate Tuesday morning. Few storms are expected again Tuesday
afternoon across northeast NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM MDT Mon May 29 2023

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...

A ridge of high pressure over the state today will shift eastward
overnight, allowing for breezy southwest flow to return on Tuesday.
A few storms will be possible across the northeast both today and
Tuesday.  On Wednesday, an upper low will shift across the Desert
Southwest, and southwest flow ahead of it will increase over NM.
Strong daytime mixing will mix these stronger winds to the surface
as well as the drier air within a mid level dry slot. As such,
critical fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon
and early evening across the Middle Rio Grande Valley and the West
Central Basin and Range. Meanwhile across eastern NM, more
widespread storms are expected with the increase in forcing. Strong
to severe storms are likely. The low will weaken and pivot across
the Four Corners area on Thursday. Less wind is expected, but storms
will again erupt across portions of eastern NM. Storms look to
become more widespread Friday into the weekend, though in general,
the high terrain and much of eastern NM is favored.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  46  83  49  82 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  41  78  42  78 /   0   0   5  30
Cuba............................  47  79  46  76 /   0   5   5  20
Gallup..........................  42  81  39  79 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  43  78  41  76 /   0   5   5   5
Grants..........................  43  82  40  80 /   0   5   0   5
Quemado.........................  44  79  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  51  80  52  79 /   0   5   0   5
Datil...........................  46  78  45  76 /   0   5   0   5
Reserve.........................  40  81  40  79 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  49  84  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  39  72  41  71 /   0   5   5  40
Los Alamos......................  54  77  53  74 /   0   5   5  30
Pecos...........................  50  78  50  74 /   0   5   5  40
Cerro/Questa....................  44  74  44  73 /   0  10   5  50
Red River.......................  37  68  39  67 /   5  20   5  70
Angel Fire......................  30  70  32  66 /   5  10   5  60
Taos............................  40  80  42  75 /   0   5   0  40
Mora............................  46  76  46  71 /   5  10   5  60
Espanola........................  50  85  52  81 /   0   0   5  30
Santa Fe........................  51  79  52  76 /   0   5   5  40
Santa Fe Airport................  48  83  49  80 /   0   0   0  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  85  58  82 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  87  59  84 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  88  56  85 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  86  57  84 /   0   0   0   5
Belen...........................  55  89  55  88 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  56  88  56  84 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  52  88  53  86 /   0   0   0   5
Corrales........................  57  87  56  85 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  53  88  54  87 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  54  84  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  57  86  57  84 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  57  90  58  88 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  78  52  76 /   0   0   5  20
Tijeras.........................  53  80  53  79 /   0   0   5  20
Edgewood........................  50  81  50  79 /   0   0   0  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  43  83  46  80 /   0   0   0  20
Clines Corners..................  49  80  47  75 /   0   0   0  30
Mountainair.....................  50  82  51  79 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  52  82  53  80 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  59  86  59  84 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  51  79  51  76 /   0   0   0  10
Capulin.........................  47  79  48  73 /  20  20   5  60
Raton...........................  46  82  47  77 /  10  20   5  60
Springer........................  46  83  48  76 /  10  10   0  60
Las Vegas.......................  46  80  47  74 /   5   5   0  60
Clayton.........................  54  83  55  79 /  20  20  10  40
Roy.............................  50  82  53  76 /  10  10   5  60
Conchas.........................  53  89  57  80 /   5   5   5  50
Santa Rosa......................  53  88  56  82 /   5   0   0  40
Tucumcari.......................  56  89  59  84 /   5   5   5  40
Clovis..........................  56  90  58  85 /   0   5   5  40
Portales........................  57  91  59  86 /   0   5   5  40
Fort Sumner.....................  56  92  59  86 /   0   0   0  40
Roswell.........................  59  97  62  93 /   0   0   0  20
Picacho.........................  57  89  57  88 /   0   0   0  20
Elk.............................  53  85  54  84 /   0   5   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for NMZ106-109.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...34