Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191656

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1056 AM MDT Thu May 19 2022

Overall aviation forecast looks on track with mainly being a wind
forecast. Strong winds are expected to develop across all terminals
this afternoon and into the overnight hours. After midnight, winds
may drop down closer to 10-12 kts at the surface to warrant adding
wind shear to the KFMN, KSAF and KLVS TAFs basically from 07-08Z to
12-13Z. 500mb winds look to increases to around 40-50kts and then
there could be some mountain wave activity to monitor. Lull in winds
will be short lived as winds increase 14-16Z Friday for all terminals
and winds to be stronger Friday afternoon and this afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION...546 AM MDT Thu May 19 2022...
West and southwest winds will increase today with gusts of 30 to 40
kt common at most terminals aft 19Z. Patchy BLDU may produce MVFR
vsbys at KFMN. Gusts may approach AWW criteria at KABQ briefly by
late afternoon however confidence is low. Winds will taper off aft
sunset in most areas but remain breezy areawide. High terrain areas
will actually see stronger gusts overnight as a stronger jet max
moves in from the northwest. Areas of smoke will also produce lcl
MVFR cigs/vsbys downwind of active wildfires thru tonight.



.PREV DISCUSSION...303 AM MDT Thu May 19 2022...
Heat, wind, and critical fire weather returns to much of northern and
central NM today and Friday. Strong westerly winds look to bring peak
gusts of 40 to 50mph to some areas during the afternoon hours each
day. A sharp cool down behind a potent backdoor cold front arrives
Saturday morning through eastern NM. Daytime highs across the eastern
plains will fall 15F-25F from Fridays readings. A few showers and
thunderstorms could result along the northern mountains to Raton Pass
Saturday, but it will remain mostly dry with this event. Better
chances for a isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorm activity
arrives early next week as temperatures across the east moderate.
Meanwhile, western areas will see a lesser cool down this weekend,
staying dry next week.


Water vapor imagery this morning shows strong zonal flow moving into
the Pac NW and Northern Rockies in association with an unseasonably
strong upper level trough. Flow aloft will strengthen over NM today
and Friday as the entire system sags southward into the Great Basin.
A 984mb surface low over eastern CO today will weaken while drifting
south into far northeast NM Friday. West to southwest wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph will be common today with near-record heat expected in
many areas. Patchy blowing dust is expected. Winds will strengthen
even more tonight as 700-500mb layer flow increases to near 45 kt
over northern NM. Higher peaks and ridges across the north and west
will begin seeing gusts near 50 mph before sunrise Friday however
coverage is too limited to begin any Wind Advisories attm.

A back door cold front will sag into northeast NM tonight with a
northeast wind shift and slightly cooler temps around KCAO. This
boundary will waffle over the area thru Friday while the rest of
NM sees even stronger west to southwest winds. The surface low will
deepen again to near 985mb over northeast NM with widespread wind
gusts of 40 to 50 mph and areas of blowing dust. A few locales in
the higher terrain of northern and western NM may see brief periods
with gusts in excess of 60 mph but coverage is still very low. Wind
Advisories will be needed in several areas. The latest HRRR smoke
model shows significant smoke production from the Black Fire on
Friday which may lead to some impacts thru Friday night. Max temps
Friday will be near-record highs again across southern areas while
the north and west trends a few degrees cooler.

Confidence continues to grow for a drastic and sharp change in the
weather pattern arriving into eastern NM Saturday morning. The suite
of global model solutions continues to show a 535dm H5 low over the
Northern Great Plains ejecting northeastward over northern Ontario,
sending down a potent cold front southward along the Front Range
Friday. A trailing upper trough crossing the CO Rockies gives this
cold front an extra push southward into northeastern NM Friday night
into Saturday morning. The NAM to no surprise is the most aggressive
with the advancement of the cold front, nearly bringing it through
the gaps of the central mountain chain Saturday morning. Notable
though is that numerical guidance is colder than the NBM which is
likely slow to catch on. Therefore, have gone much colder for high
temperatures Saturday across the eastern plains. Low clouds along the
eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristos and even a few snow
flakes at Raton Pass will be possible Saturday morning. The
anomalously cold airmass stalls through eastern NM during the day
Saturday, but advances westward with much higher confidence to surge
through the gaps of the central mountain chain bringing strong east
canyon winds to Santa Fe and Albuquerque. This will bring high
temperatures back down to near normal for the Rio Grande Valley
Sunday, staying well below normal through the eastern plains.
Meanwhile areas along and west of the continental divide remain near
or just above normal, although temperatures do trend cooler.

Surface winds turn southerly Monday with cooler airmass moderating
across the eastern plains. With an approaching upper level trough
from the PacNW, flow aloft will turn southwesterly allowing for some
convective potential developing along and east of the central
mountain chain. Forecast confidence deteriorates Tuesday and beyond
with the ECMWF and Canadian solutions favoring northwest flow taking
hold over northern NM and a ridge building just off the Baja Coast.
This seems more likely than a higher amplified jet pattern from the
GFS closing off the aforementioned upper trough into a low over NM
Tuesday. Either solution favors less dry westerly wind events, which
is a plus.




West and southwest winds will strengthen today as an unseasonably
strong upper level trough digs south toward the Great Basin. Wind
gusts of 30 to 40 mph will coincide with 8 to 12 hours of single
digit RH, near-record heat, and unstable conditions over much
of the region. Winds will actually strengthen tonight over higher
mountain peaks and ridges with gusts in excess of 45 mph possible.
The Red Flag Warnings were extended in time as elevated to critical
conditions continue almost all night in several areas. Critical to
locally extreme fire weather occurs Friday as widespread west to
southwest winds of 35 to 50 mph impact NM with more single digit
RH, well above normal temperatures, and unstable conditions.

Some relief begins Friday night as a back door cold front moves into
eastern NM. Temps will trend cooler Saturday however winds remain
rather breezy with very low humidity again for central and western
NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible. Even cooler air
filters into more of the state for Sunday with more breezy winds and
slightly higher humidity. Just enough moisture and lift may occur
over the Sangre de Cristo Mts near the CO border to support light
rain and mountain snow.



Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101>105-107-108.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for the following
zones... NMZ101>109.


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