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000
FXUS65 KABQ 181123
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
423 AM MST Sun Nov 18 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LIFR ceilings and visibilities and areas of freezing drizzle are
expected through 16Z in the eastern foothills of the central
mountains and adjacent highlands. IFR to MVFR ceilings across the
eastern plains will transition to VFR ceilings late this morning.
Winds will generally be light today, except winds across northwest
NM will gust to near 20 knots this afternoon. VFR conditions and
light winds will predominate tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...302 AM MST Sun Nov 18 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front is bringing colder temperatures, clouds and
areas of freezing fog to much of eastern New Mexico this morning.
Daytime temperatures will generally be below normal today, especially
across the eastern plains. Look for some warming going into midweek,
with daytime temperatures rising above normal most areas by
Wednesday. A disturbance will move over the state on Thanksgiving
Day, bringing breezy to locally windy conditions and unsettled
conditions with showers across north central and northwest New
Mexico. Another, stronger disturbance will race east across the area
next weekend, bringing windy and colder conditions with chances for
snow to northern New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The backdoor cold front has pulled-up stationary along the central
mountain chain and is trying to make a run at Santa Fe per the latest
GOES nighttime microphysics imagery showing low clouds/fog expanding
north from the Estancia Valley. Elsewhere across eastern New Mexico,
low stratus and areas of freezing fog prevail. The Freezing Fog
Advisory looks on-track, but may need to be expanded to include the
Estancia Valley, Santa Fe Metro and possibly a couple more east
central plains counties. Daytime temperatures will be well below
normal across the eastern plains today as the frontal layer hangs-on.
An upper level trough, currently oriented from west to east across
UT/CO, will push south across New Mexico today but will lack
sufficient moisture and dynamics to produce measurable precipitation.
A much drier airmass will follow behind the trough and PWATs will
dip below normal for a couple of days. Look for warming through mid
week with ridging following the departing trough. A weak and
moisture-starved shortwave trough is still forecast to race east
across southern New Mexico Tuesday night into Wednesday. Sufficient
Gulf moisture may return to southeast New Mexico ahead of the
shortwave trough to produce some light precipitation with very little
qpf across the southeast plains and south central mountains Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

A series of progressively stronger trough passages will begin on
Thanksgiving Day, with the next one coming the following weekend.
The latest operational run of the GFS shows open waves with stronger
winds and limited precipitation, with the latest operational run of
the ECMWF showing more amplified waves with a potent closed upper
low next weekend. Our forecast is closer to the latest GFS solution
for now and will wait for more model consensus and/or run-to-run
consistency before swinging too far one direction or the other.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High relative humidity and low level upslope flow from the east and
northeast will produce IFR ceilings and visibilities across the east
central plains, the northeast plains and the northeast highlands
through mid morning Sunday. A few areas of freezing drizzle will
persist along the east slopes of the central mountains through
around sunrise Sunday morning. Weak upper level low pressure will
move across northern New Mexico Sunday afternoon, and west to
northwest winds will develop with wind speeds between 5 and 15 mph
west of the central mountains. Ventilation rates will be poor across
the eastern plains and central valleys Sunday and fair across the
rest of the region. A weak backdoor cold front will move across the
eastern plains Monday morning and then weaken as it moves westward
toward the central mountains. Weak high pressure aloft will build
over western New Mexico Monday. A slight increase in moisture behind
the backdoor cold front will keep minimum relative humidity in the
20 to 30 percent range east of the central mountains, while drier
air moving across the west will produce minimum relative humidity in
the teens to lower 20s west of the central mountains. East to
northeast winds behind the backdoor cold front will range from 10 to
15 mph, while winds across the rest of the region will be light.
Ventilation will be poor across the entire area Monday.

A weak ridge of high pressure aloft will cross the area Tuesday with
light winds across western and central New Mexico. South winds 5 to
12 mph will develop Tuesday afternoon across the eastern plains.
Ventilation rates will again be poor on Tuesday. A weak upper level
low will move from Arizona across southern New Mexico Tuesday night
with light precipitation in portions of the southeast plains,
generally less than one tenth of an inch across southern Chaves
County. High pressure aloft will quickly build in from the west
Wednesday with light winds and continued poor ventilation.

A fast moving storm system will move across northwest and north
central New Mexico Thursday and Thursday night and another area of
low pressure will move across northern New Mexico Saturday and
Saturday night. Light to moderate accumulations of rain and snow are
possible with both of these systems, but models have yet to be
consistent and confidence is low regarding precipitation amounts.

28

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for the following
zones... NMZ515-523-526>533-539.

&&

$$