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000
FXUS65 KABQ 201141 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Another round of more showers and thunderstorms is expected to
redevelop today over the mountains, slowly moving into nearby
valleys and lower elevations into the early evening before dying.
Storms may turn strong in northeastern New Mexico where a cold front
will arrive in the evening. Stronger storms will produce small hail
and brief reductions to ceilings and visibility during downpours with
any showers or storms capable of producing abrupt and strong
downburst winds.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will see one more round of near record heat. A few more clouds
and light showers/storms will try to break out over the northern
mountains today, but any good chances for storms arrives Sunday and
into early next week. A backdoor cold front will swing through
eastern NM Sunday morning, surging further west Monday morning.
Temperatures fall with additional moisture helping to spark daily
rounds of afternoon storms for next week. Highs will finally be near
normal across the west and below normal across the east, slowly
trending back up through the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today...Near record heat continues with many locations across the
east reaching or topping 100F. Roswell is forecast for another record
high of 107F, with ABQ potentially reaching 100F again. Even Santa Fe
and Los Alamos will reach into the low to mid 90s again. The one
very small saving grace across western and central NM is some mid-
level moisture working its way from the south will likely increase
cloud cover somewhat and producing isold-sct storms over the high
terrain. These storms will be more on the dry side however, producing
either sprinkles or just a few hundredths.

Tonight-Sunday...The timing of the backdoor cold front swinging into
northeastern NM remains after sunset. Outflow originating from
strong storms over southeastern CO will affect the arrival time of
the fropa through northeastern NM. The front will make it to the east
slopes of the central mountain chain Sunday morning, potentially
producing a modest gap wind into ABQ. Daytime highs Sunday will
depend on how much of the cooler and more moist airmass behind the
front mixes out, but it will be cooler across eastern NM. Only far
western NM looks to hold onto the heat Sunday. The additional
moisture and upslope flow along the east slopes of the central
mountain chain will produce a notable uptick in afternoon
thunderstorm activity. Storm motions will be to the S/SE.

Next Week...The backdoor front makes a stronger second push through
the gaps of the central mountains Sunday night reaching the AZ border
Monday morning. Highs will drop to near normal west, and well below
normal east. Sfc moisture surges upward as the upper high shifts
into the Great Basin allowing for plenty of afternoon storms to
develop over the western and central high terrain. Storms look to be
efficient rain producers given the drop in dewpoint depressions
Monday, and this will be a concern for recent burn scars in the high
terrain where heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding concerns. The
saving grace here is that the steering flow may be quick enough to
limit the timing for locally heavy rains. Moisture will continue to
recycle each day with afternoon convection. The upper high looks to
shift to our W/SW by late week, keeping storms forming over the high
terrain then moving S. The ECMWF continues to trend toward a
stronger high centered closer to western NM, and this would limit
storm coverage for the latter half of next week. The GFS however, as
it usually is, holds onto more widespread convection each day. Thus,
PoPs are a bit uncertain for the latter half of next week.
Temperatures do trend back up steadily each day.

24/RJH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Only minor rises in dewpoints are expected today, and humidity is
expected to plummet to less than 15 percent in many NM locations
with hot and near to well above normal temperatures expected by the
afternoon. Thunderstorms will be high-based and even dry, especially
in western parts of the state with lightning posing new ignition
concerns along with the typical gusty storm outflows. Into the
evening storms could roll into the eastern plains, but would be most
likely in the northeastern highlands and plains where a weak, but
briefly gusty cold front will arrive.

Going into Sunday, the aforementioned front will have ushered in
better moisture that will moderate temperatures several degrees and
boost wetting rain chances along/east of the central mountain chain.
The moisture will not have seeped much farther west than the Rio
Grande Sunday morning, keeping hotter temperatures, lower afternoon
RH, and fewer storms there. This will change going into Sunday night
and Monday as a reinforcing back door front spills into NM.

Before the better moisture can be spread westward with the advancing
front, gusty winds will be found along and just behind the boundary,
including gap/canyon winds in prone areas of central NM early Monday
morning. Into Monday and Tuesday, the arrival of deepening moisture
will continue to draw temperatures closer to normal in the west
while even briefly dropping them below in portions of central and
eastern NM. This along with the inherent increase in thunderstorms
will alleviate critical fire weather concerns Monday and Tuesday.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ534-538.

&&

$$