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000
FXUS65 KABQ 211747 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1047 AM MST Mon Jan 21 2019

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Strong southwest to west winds peaking between 19Z and 22/01Z with
widespread gusts to around 35-40kt and gusts to around 50-55kt over
some of the western and central high terrain. Sfc wnds becoming nwly
over nw NM aft 01Z then progressing sewd as a cold front moves over
the region. Sct MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in snow showers and blowing
snow with occasional mt obscurations to develop in conjunction with
and in the wake of the cold front over the northwest third to half of
NM. Back door segment of the cold front to impact ne NM by 22/12Z
with strong nly winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1031 AM MST Mon Jan 21 2019...
.DISCUSSION UPDATE...
12Z NAM and 12Z GFS show a band of 45 to 55 knot winds at 700
millibars extending farther to the east across Chaves County and
Quay County this afternoon. 12Z NAM12 model soundings indicating a
weak inversion between 725 millibars and 675 millibars over these
areas, but strong downsloping will push afternoon temperatures
higher than current guidance and these inversions will likely be
mixed out. This should cause afternoon winds to increase into the 25
to 30 knot range across these counties, and, for these reasons,
Chaves County and Quay County have been included in the wind
advisories through 9 PM this evening. The Lower Rio Grande Valley,
including Socorro, has been included in the wind advisory through 9
PM due to its proximity to the strongest core of winds aloft across
south central New Mexico and due to clearing skies moving in from the
west, which will create a deeper mixing layer.

28

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST Mon Jan 21 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to very strong southwest and west winds will develop today as
an upper level low pressure system crossing Colorado steers the jet
stream over New Mexico. The strongest winds should be felt over the
south central mountains and adjacent high plains where potentially
damaging wind gusts may reach 70 mph. Elsewhere across the high
terrain wind gusts will generally vary from 45 to 65 mph. Lower
elevation wind gusts should vary from 30 to 50 mph. The northern
mountains can also expect a few inches of snow this afternoon into
Tuesday morning with the highest amounts near 7 inches in the Tusas
Mountains above Chama. Snow showers and flurries will probably linger
over central parts of the state Tuesday with below normal
temperatures areawide. It will remain cool and a little gusty during
the latter half of the week with periods of light precipitation
along and east of the northern mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Windy to very windy day expected as an upper level low pressure
system passing eastward over CO steers the polar jet stream over NM.
There will also be a sharp surface trough south of a roughly 992 mb
surface low in eastern CO. Strong west and southwest winds will
result with the potential for widespread gusts in the 40-50 mph
range. Wind speeds at 700 mb are generally forecast to peak from
50-60 kt over the mountains, and near 70 kt in the south central
mountains, where there is a good chance for potentially damaging
surface wind gusts up to 70 mph. Will continue the High Wind Warning
for the west central, southwest and south central mountains, and
upgrade the current Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning in the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Models have been depicting slightly less
wind over the Jemez Mountains, so no headlines there yet. The day
shift will monitor and update if needed.

Most of the moisture with today`s storm system will stay north of
NM, but the northern mountains should accumulate a few inches of
snow. The highest amounts should top 6 inches in the Tusas Mountains
above Chama, and could reach 4 inches in the northern Sangres. The
bigger impact in the Sangres will be 60 mph winds, so will mention
Sangres snow accumulation in their High Wind Warning.

As the upper level low pressure system shifts eastward over the Great
Plains Monday night and Tuesday, a strong back door cold front will
dive southward into NM`s eastern plains with strong winds. North
wind gusts should vary from 40 to 55 mph Tuesday morning until mid
afternoon along and east of a line from Raton to Clovis. The
strongest winds are expected on the northeast plains. Also on
Tuesday, a weak secondary shortwave trough will dig over NM while a
somewhat moist cold front pushes southward through central parts of
the state. This will cause clouds and light snow showers to linger
over central areas, but little or no accumulation is expected.

After high temperatures around 7 to 17 degrees below normal on
Tuesday, readings will rebound only slowly Wednesday through Saturday
as northwest flow aloft steers a series of perturbations
southeastward across the northern and central Rockies. This should
keep winds a little gusty over NM each day, and enable a few weak
cold fronts to sag southward through the state. Periods of light
precipitation will also be possible along and east of the northern
mountains.

A weak and transient ridge of high pressure is forecast for Sunday,
when high temperatures may reach around normal.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR EAST CENTRAL NM
THIS AFTERNOON...

A storm system will move east through the Four Corners region today
with widespread strong southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold
front. The limiting factor for critical conditions today will be
marginally low humidity in the 15 to 20% range along with plenty of
high clouds. Winds will turn to the west then northwest by sunset as
the cold front blasts through the area. There is even the potential
for a few inches of snow over the northern high terrain late today
through Tuesday. Temperatures will trend much colder Tuesday with
readings 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The back door portion of the
cold front will then race south through eastern NM Tuesday morning
with more strong winds. Strong high pressure settling into the area
Tuesday morning will bring the coldest low temperatures in a couple
weeks for Wednesday morning.

The remainder of the week will feature two upper level waves moving
southeast through the central Rockies on fast northwest flow aloft.
This pattern will force periodic cold fronts with breezy winds into
the area. The first cold front is on tap for Thursday followed by
the next on Saturday. There may be just enough moisture to squeeze
out very light snowfall with each front near the Colorado border.
Otherwise an overall dry and relatively tranquil pattern is on tap.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ501-502-509-512-520>525-527>534-538.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ505-506-508-513>515-526-539-540.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Tuesday for the following
zones... NMZ510.

&&

$$