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000
FXUS65 KABQ 030525 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1025 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Calm winds overnight outside of terrain driven drainage winds at the
usual spots of KFMN and KSAF. Stronger SW winds arrive Wednesday
afternoon ahead of an upper low approaching from the west. Some
virga-induced outflow gusts could reach western terminals after 00Z
toward the end of the TAF period for western terminals to include
KGUP before actual precipitation reaches the ground overnight into
Thursday morning through western and northern NM.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will continue to warm through Wednesday, ahead of the
next storm system. Rain, mountain snow showers, and even a
thunderstorm or two will focus across western and northern NM
Wednesday night and Thursday. As the Pacific front pushes through
northern and central New Mexico, west to northwest winds will
increase. Sunny skies and above normal temperatures return for the
weekend with a few afternoon breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
Very dry air mass to continue over northern and central NM tonight
and Wednesday. The surface lee trough has resulted in gusty southwest
winds to around 30-35 mph this afternoon over northeast and east
central NM. The wind should settle down a bit tonight, but with
overnight lows generally a few degrees warmer than last night`s.
Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer than today for most areas,
while south to southwest winds begin to increase, along with clouds
and slight chances for showers over western NM. Wednesday night will
again see not so cold overnight lows, and rapidly thickening and
lowering cloud cover with increasing chances for rain and snow
showers over western and north central NM as an upper low approaches
from AZ and swings toward the Four Corners. Some of the showers late
Wednesday afternoon and early evening may initially be gusty with
little precipitation until the lower levels of the atmosphere
saturate. Wouldn`t be surprised if there was an isolated short lived
thunderstorm or two Wednesday night as well, but left the mention out
of the grids with this package. Mountaintop winds may increase after
midnight Wednesday night south of Highway 60 to around 50kt, so
places like KSRR and some of the higher peaks of the Gila may start
to blow more strongly than what`s currently in the wind grids.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
On Thursday, a Pacific front will cross through the state, with a
strong 120 kt jet aloft. As the front approaches, 700 mb winds
increase to around 50-55 kts mainly south of the I-40 corridor. Precipitation
shifts more from western and northern New Mexico during the day
Thursday to the northeastern corner of the state Thursday night and
Friday, with near advisory snowfall amounts expected across the
Tusas/Sangre de Cristos and less than an inch across lower
elevations.

On Friday, the wind threat shifts more to the northeast portion of
the state, with gusts near 40-50 kts. There is lower confidence that
there will be a strong gap wind in the ABQ and Santa Fe metro areas
Friday night, with model guidance showing around 15-25 kts. Western
and central areas of the state begin warming 5-15 degrees compared to
Thursday`s readings.

Heights build late Friday and Saturday under a ridge, before another
quick shortwave brings nothing more than a few high clouds and a
chance of a few rain/snow showers to the Tusas. Another ridge begins
to build Sunday and Monday, with the ABQ metro area getting close to
its first 70 degree day of the season. Breezy to locally windy
conditions will return each afternoon. Another storm system bring another
round of rain and mountain snow showers Monday night/Tuesday or
Tuesday/Tuesday night, depending on the quicker GFS or the slower
ECMWF. Regardless, even with a few breaks, it looks to be active into
the extended.

99/31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very isolated critical fire weather conditions observed this
afternoon over the Northeast and East Central Plains. Winds should
diminish somewhat and humidities increase sufficiently this evening
to below the threshold for critical conditions, although overnight
humidity recoveries will be fair to poor for much of the RGV and
from the east slopes of the central mountain chain toward the Pecos
Valley. Critical conditions are not anticipated Wednesday with winds
staying below threshold despite minimum humidities ranging from
about 8 to 12 percent over much of the RGV and eastern plains.

An upper low pressure system over AZ Wednesday will lift through the
Four Corners region and track eastward along the NM/CO border
Wednesday night and Thursday. This will spread chances for rain and
snow showers over western and northern NM along with an isolated
thunderstorm or two. Some of the showers over western NM late
Wednesday may initially be gusty rather than produce any
precipitation until the lower levels of the atmosphere become
saturated. Mountain top southwesterly winds will strengthen
Wednesday night and early Thursday especially south of Highway 60
where humidities will be lower and chances for wetting precipitation
less than 10 percent. Therefore can`t rule out the potential for
several hours of critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon
over the southern portion of the Middle RGV and the East Central
Plains.

Some light wrap around precipitation and gusty north winds will
accompany the departing upper low over northeast and east central NM
Thursday night and early Friday morning as the low dives into the TX
Panhandle and OK. Saturday and Sunday appear dry and warmer with
some afternoon westerly breezes. Early next week looks to be
unsettled.

Ventilation will be excellent overall Thursday, over most of western
NM Wednesday and over much of eastern NM Friday.

99

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$