Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
362 FXUS65 KABQ 060650 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1250 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1247 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will return Monday through Wednesday this week. Areas near and east of the central mountain chain will be favored Monday before showers and storms spread to more of northern and central New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday. - There is a marginal risk for evening thunderstorm activity to threaten excessive rainfall and flash flooding over isolated low lying and poorly drained spots and arroyos in central NM, including Santa Fe and Albuquerque. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1247 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Synoptic scale troughing remains over the western CONUS with a closed low just off the coast of CA and a shortwave trough axis over western WY. This is keeping southwesterly flow aloft persistent over NM today and Monday, which will act to stall a cold front back southward thru the northeastern quadrant of NM this morning. The southern leading edge of this frontal boundary is still progged to meet up against southerly return flow from the Gulf somewhere just south of I-40. An area of showers and thunderstorms will favor development along this surface convergence draped along a line from Curry to De Baca to an area in eastern Lincoln County. Individual storm cells will track eastward, with precipitation chances stretched N-S from Tucumcari to Roswell. The frontal boundary will reorient itself N-S along the east slopes of the central mountain chain this evening before advancing westward thru the gaps of the central mountain chain. East canyon winds will push thru Santa Fe and Albuquerque late tonight thru Tuesday morning. Low clouds and some fog will be favored in this front`s wake along the highlands and east slopes of the central mountain chain Tuesday morning. Tuesday will feature low clouds likely loitering across much of eastern NM acting to inhibit daytime heating. High temperatures here will be suppressed 10F to 15F below normal ranging from the upper 50s in Clayton to 60s further south along I-40 and upper 70s in Roswell. Atmospheric instability will thus be present further west within the Rio Grande Valley to the Continental Divide where greater daytime heating and increased low-level moisture will yield late afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Modest southwesterly to westerly flow aloft will yield modest bulk shear of 25-40kts allowing for some of these thunderstorms to become strong and perhaps briefly severe Tuesday evening. Perhaps the greater concern will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall producing flash flooding concerns thru poorly drained areas and metro arroyo systems. PWATs reaching near climatological records for early October of near 1.00" supports WPC`s marginal risk of excessive rainfall. This risk for locally heavy rainfall could also stretch further south to the Ruidoso area burn scars, however low clouds limiting instability will be the question for the day. Overall thunderstorm activity late Tuesday evening steadily migrates eastward over the southern Sangre de Cristo Mts and surrounding highlands and toward northeastern NM past midnight Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1247 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Wednesday begins the long term period with Tuesday evening`s convective activity pushing low-level moisture further west to and past the Continental Divide. While low clouds may not be as persistent or stubborn to clear out thru eastern NM Wednesday, a building ridge of high pressure will act to suppress convective potential over eastern and central NM Wednesday afternoon. Thus, showers and thunderstorms will favor areas along the Continental Divide first late Wednesday before spreading back east into portions of the Rio Grande Valley from Taos to Santa Fe to Albuquerque to Socorro. The ridge of high pressure builds to a dome centered over the Big Bend area of TX by Thursday and Friday, as a deep troughing pattern deepens off the PacNW coast. Subtropical moisture will be advected northward up the Baja Peninsula and Gulf of California and then northwestward through AZ and perhaps far western NM. Thus any precipitation chances will favor far western NM these days with drier conditions further east toward TX. Numerical model solutions are starting to come into better alignment with resolving the high breaking down and the upper level troughing pattern advancing thru the western CONUS Saturday and Sunday. This will steadily spread precipitation chances eastward across NM each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 VFR thru tonight with mostly light and variable winds. A cold front backing southward thru northeastern NM will bring a northerly to northeasterly wind shift thru KRTN-KCAO-KLVS-KTCC. Winds veer easterly thru the day at these locations with the frontal boundary converging with southerly winds in east-central NM favoring an area from KCVN to Ft. Sumner. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening along this convergent boundary and PROB30s are included at KROW and KTCC for this. The frontal boundary realigns N- S this evening pushing westward thru the gaps of the central mountain chain bringing east canyon winds to KSAF and KABQ past 02Z. Gusts of 15 to 25 kts are favored thru much of Monday night into Tuesday morning at these terminals. Meanwhile, IFR/MVFR ceilings will be favored across portions of the east-central and northeastern plains riding up to the highlands along the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Mention of this included at KLVS and KTCC Monday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 No critical fire weather concerns thru the next seven days. Drier and breezy conditions remain across western NM today, with cooler temperatures and higher humidity over eastern NM. Increased moisture and humidity spreads westward Tuesday and Wednesday with rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each of these days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 74 43 78 53 / 0 0 10 10 Dulce........................... 73 32 74 40 / 0 5 20 30 Cuba............................ 72 41 72 46 / 0 5 30 40 Gallup.......................... 75 36 78 45 / 0 0 10 10 El Morro........................ 75 42 73 47 / 0 0 30 20 Grants.......................... 78 40 74 47 / 0 0 30 40 Quemado......................... 77 41 77 49 / 0 0 20 20 Magdalena....................... 76 50 73 53 / 0 0 40 40 Datil........................... 74 43 72 48 / 0 0 30 40 Reserve......................... 77 43 81 48 / 0 0 10 20 Glenwood........................ 81 48 85 53 / 0 0 10 10 Chama........................... 67 37 67 40 / 0 5 20 30 Los Alamos...................... 71 48 67 50 / 0 10 30 50 Pecos........................... 67 45 64 47 / 10 20 30 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 42 68 45 / 10 20 20 30 Red River....................... 58 35 59 37 / 10 20 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 66 32 63 33 / 10 30 30 30 Taos............................ 72 40 70 44 / 0 20 20 30 Mora............................ 64 41 63 42 / 10 30 30 50 Espanola........................ 76 45 74 50 / 0 10 20 50 Santa Fe........................ 72 49 68 50 / 10 20 30 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 75 48 71 49 / 5 10 30 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 55 75 57 / 0 10 30 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 80 52 78 55 / 0 10 30 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 83 50 80 55 / 0 10 30 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 52 78 55 / 0 10 30 60 Belen........................... 84 48 81 52 / 0 10 30 60 Bernalillo...................... 81 51 78 55 / 0 10 30 60 Bosque Farms.................... 83 48 79 52 / 0 10 30 60 Corrales........................ 81 50 78 55 / 0 10 30 60 Los Lunas....................... 83 49 80 53 / 0 10 30 60 Placitas........................ 79 52 73 53 / 0 10 30 60 Rio Rancho...................... 80 51 77 55 / 0 10 30 60 Socorro......................... 83 54 81 56 / 0 5 30 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 47 69 49 / 5 10 40 60 Tijeras......................... 76 49 70 50 / 5 10 40 60 Edgewood........................ 76 45 69 48 / 10 10 40 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 77 44 71 46 / 10 10 40 60 Clines Corners.................. 69 45 63 46 / 10 20 40 60 Mountainair..................... 76 46 71 48 / 10 10 40 60 Gran Quivira.................... 76 48 71 48 / 5 10 40 60 Carrizozo....................... 78 55 75 55 / 5 10 40 40 Ruidoso......................... 71 50 65 50 / 20 10 40 40 Capulin......................... 61 43 59 45 / 10 50 20 20 Raton........................... 64 45 62 47 / 20 40 20 20 Springer........................ 67 47 63 47 / 10 40 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 64 44 60 45 / 20 40 40 60 Clayton......................... 60 47 57 51 / 10 50 20 20 Roy............................. 63 48 60 50 / 20 50 30 60 Conchas......................... 69 51 64 53 / 30 50 30 60 Santa Rosa...................... 69 50 65 51 / 30 40 40 60 Tucumcari....................... 69 50 63 51 / 30 50 30 60 Clovis.......................... 77 54 71 55 / 40 40 30 40 Portales........................ 79 55 73 55 / 30 30 30 40 Fort Sumner..................... 79 55 71 55 / 40 40 40 50 Roswell......................... 87 60 77 58 / 20 20 20 40 Picacho......................... 80 54 72 54 / 40 20 30 40 Elk............................. 78 51 69 51 / 20 20 30 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24