Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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712 FXUS65 KABQ 080650 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1150 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1148 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025 - A cold front sharply drops temperatures and brings gusty northeast winds to eastern NM tonight into Sunday morning. A modest easterly wind thru the gaps of the central mountain chain is likely into Santa Fe and ABQ near Tijeras Canyon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 1148 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025 The stretch of abnormal warmth will be interrupted this weekend, notably thru eastern NM. Current GOES-East water vapor imagery is showing a 540dm H5 low spinning southeastward over eastern MT with a 110-120kt H3 jetmax south of it over WY. This pulse of energy embedded within the larger scale northwest flow over the Rockies will send down a 2nd cold front backing southward thru eastern NM Saturday morning. Breezy northeasterly winds with sustained winds of 15-20mph will focus along the NM/TX border alongside CAA dropping temperatures further from Friday`s observations. Highs thus range from the mid-50s from Raton to Clayton to near 70F from Clovis to Fort Sumner, with warmer temperatures further south toward Roswell. A reinforcing frontal push more associated with a wave of upper level energy closer to the 523dm H5 low near Lake Superior will bring stronger CAA into eastern NM Saturday night into Sunday morning. This will push the edge of the surface front further west thru the gaps of the central mountain chain. The current dynamical setup of the main upper level feature far off toward the Great Lakes and the surface high near the US/Canadian border does not favor a strong east canyon wind event setting up into Santa Fe and Albuquerque. MOS guidance has come down another step from prior forecasts favoring sustained winds at the ABQ Sunport reaching 12- 15kts with gusts up to 25-30kts. Meanwhile, the strong CAA behind the front thru eastern NM will drop Sunday`s high temperatures back into the upper 40s in northeastern NM to 50s further south. A more moderated drop in temperatures will reach the Rio Grande Valley where highs will be in the 50s from Taos to Santa Fe with 60s further south in Albuquerque to Socorro. Temperatures along and west of the Continental Divide will remain fairly consistent in the 60s with little to no cooling. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1148 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025 The amplification of the overall upper level jet pattern over the western and central CONUS lessens Monday with the ridge of high pressure to the west of CA/NV flattening. The surface cold front washes out over NM with winds veering back out of the south and lessening in strength. Temperatures moderate and warm back up over eastern NM quickly Monday relative to Sunday. The ridge flattens further Tuesday with increasing westerlies returning to much of the area Tuesday afternoon. Westerly downslope compressional warming brings temperatures back up considerably over eastern NM into the 70s to near 80F in Roswell. This phenomena lessens Wednesday and Thursday as what`s left of the ridge slides eastward over NM. A more active weather pattern looks to be favored late next weekend into the following week as a ensemble model guidance is resolving a Pacific storm system rolling into SoCAL or the northern Baja Peninsula. An end to the dry streak may be in the cards for portions of New Mexico by the middle of the month. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with mostly light winds across western NM. A backdoor cold front will move into eastern NM Saturday, bringing a northerly wind shift and gusts to between 20-25kts. The front will move southwest across the area Saturday evening and create a gusty east canyon wind at KABQ, but not until a few hours after then end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1148 PM MST Fri Nov 7 2025 Warmer conditions with modest afternoon breezes will remain over western NM thru the next 7 days. The second in a series of cold fronts advances thru eastern NM today bringing breezy to locally windy northeasterly winds and cooler temperatures this afternoon. This front is reinforced tonight into Sunday morning bringing well below normal temperatures to eastern NM Sunday. Easterly winds behind the frontal passage look to arrive to and thru the gaps of the central mountain chain near midnight or just after tonight. Wind speeds lessen thru the day Sunday and stay modest thru Monday as temperatures rebound. Breezy to locally windier conditions will favor the central highlands Tuesday afternoon as temperatures warm back up considerably over eastern NM. A mixed back of poor to fair ventilation Monday and Tuesday persists thru the rest of the week as a weak ridge of high pressure slides east over NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 34 64 30 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 61 22 61 22 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 63 31 61 25 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 68 28 65 22 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 63 34 64 29 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 70 30 66 25 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 68 35 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 70 41 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 68 37 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 75 33 74 29 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 79 38 79 33 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 56 25 57 26 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 61 38 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 63 38 64 25 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 32 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 50 27 51 22 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 57 21 56 11 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 63 25 62 25 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 62 34 62 23 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 68 32 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 64 40 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 67 34 65 28 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 45 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 71 40 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 72 38 72 32 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 40 70 35 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 72 35 72 30 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 39 71 32 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 70 33 72 28 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 71 39 72 32 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 70 35 72 28 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 66 41 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 70 40 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 74 41 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 39 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 63 40 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 65 37 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 68 32 66 22 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 64 36 62 25 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 67 38 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 67 38 67 29 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 72 43 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 67 45 66 29 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 59 32 53 19 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 64 30 60 21 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 67 28 62 21 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 64 34 61 23 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 63 40 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 61 35 59 24 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 71 36 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 70 43 64 28 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 72 37 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 72 43 68 29 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 77 41 69 27 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 40 69 28 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 75 42 78 36 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 72 44 76 30 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 73 42 76 27 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...11