612
FXUS65 KABQ 201753 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1053 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1051 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Low elevation rain and mountain snow will continue across
  northern and central New Mexico through the morning and
  afternoon before refocusing over northern areas of the state
  this evening.

- A couple to a few inches of accumulating snow will be favored
  above 8500 feet through the evening.

- Another storm system will bring a round of lower elevation rain
  and mountain snow Saturday night through early Monday morning. A
  few inches of accumulating snow will again be favored above
  8500 feet.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 451 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

A deep upper level low pressure system is spinning near the lower
Colorado river basin between CA/AZ early this morning. The low is
stretched along a north-south axis with a secondary vort lobe
rounding the upper Gulf of CA, and moist diffluent southwesterly
flow aloft is feeding into NM ahead of the low. This has yielded a
swath of rain and high mountain snow across south central to
central NM with convection and thunderstorms ongoing in AZ. The
upper low axis will become increasingly negatively tilted as it
moves eastward with the southernmost vort lobe translating toward
southwestern NM by mid day. This will keep widespread, mostly
stratiform rain and high elevation snow going through the morning
with a trend toward more embedded convective cells and lightning
by the afternoon and the focus aligning toward northern NM by late
in the day. The southernmost vort lobe would eject toward the
tri-state area of southeast CO, southwest KS, and the OK
panhandle by late this evening with westerly flow persisting in
the wake over most of NM. Showers would undergo a quick dwindling
over northern NM by late this evening. Widespread QPF of 0.1 to
0.3 will fall between now and this time with lesser amounts
across the northwestern plateau of NM (Farmington area). Higher
liquid equivalent amounts are expected over the mountains. Snow
levels currently starting around 9,500-10,500 ft for much of NM
will lower toward 8,000-8,5000 ft for many mountainous zones
(lower in southwest NM) through mid day as the cold core aloft
moves overhead. This will result in a few inches of snow over
higher peaks with the northern mountains still projected to
receive 3-8 inches of wet accumulation where the Winter Weather
Advisory looks to be on track.

With precipitation abating, many central to eastern areas will
undergo clearing tonight, but western and northern high terrain
areas will have more stubborn low stratus, stratocumulus, and even
patchy ground fog where saturated soils are. These will erode away
into the daytime hours Friday with new batches of mid to high
level clouds starting to feed into the state as the next upper low
quickly moves down the CA coast and starts to pump additional
moisture our way. After a cooler than normal day today,
temperatures on Friday will moderate, reaching closer to seasonal
normals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 451 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

By Saturday, the upper low offshore of southern CA will start to
move over the upper Baja peninsula, becoming more vertically
stacked. This will limit the amount of cloud cover that pivots
ahead of the low into NM with just a spoke or two of mid level
moisture sliding up from the southwest. Temperatures will respond
upward a few degrees in western zones with all areas running near
to just slightly above late November averages.

The low will change course into Saturday night, crossing
northeastward into AZ and then heading for the NM-CO border
through the day Sunday. This will once again spread widespread
mostly stratiform rain and high elevation snow over much of NM
with the blended consensus for QPF generally ranging between
0.25-0.5" with slightly higher amounts in the far eastern plains
and lesser amounts in the far west. In fact, probabilities for QPF
greater than 0.1 are quite high (60-80%) for most of the
forecast area Saturday night through Sunday. Temperatures with the
cold core low will be similar, but slightly warmer than its
predecessor with 700 mb readings generally running at -2 to - 3 C,
only cold enough to support light, wet snow accumulations of a
few inches (2-8") above 8,500-9,000 ft. The low would exit to the
northeast Sunday night and early Monday morning with a cessation
of precipitation and a clearing trend in NM. It is noted that
earlier model runs have struggled with some continuity with
indications that the low might cut off and separate from the polar
jet which would send it on a more erratic track farther south.
Given the current La Nina conditions present and a lack of robust
convection within the ITCZ, this more northern track loosely
tethered with the polar jet seems more plausible.

After a slightly cooler than normal day on Sunday amid clouds and
precipitation, drier northwest flow aloft will prevail for the
first half of the subsequent work week. Temperatures would turn
more seasonable into Monday and more-so into Tuesday. However, a
dry backdoor cold front will invade Tuesday, setting high
temperatures back several degrees into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Several areas of showers continue across central and eastern NM
around 18z, with snow likely occurring across high mountain terrain.
Many terminals have seen MVFR to IFR conditions throughout the
morning, with moderate to high confidence of this continuing through
at least 21z. A break in the rain is likely across central NM before
additional showers develop in the mid to late afternoon. Low to
moderate chances of thunderstorms to be embedded with these showers
as the atmosphere may destabilize enough. Have mentioned TSRA in
some TAFs given this probability. As showers and thunderstorms
continue through the evening, MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected
with any direct hit to a terminal. As precipitation winds down by 03-
06z (with the exception of northern mountain snow), low clouds may
stick around in western and northern mountain areas, including KGUP,
though confidence is not high enough to put the as prevailing
ceilings.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 451 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

No critical fire weather concerns exist for the next several days,
as a pair of low pressure systems will bring widespread wetting
precipitation to the forecast area both today and again Saturday
night into Sunday. Prescribed burning interests will face high
humidity today with excellent humidity recoveries each following
night, especially Saturday night with ongoing precipitation. Drier
daytime conditions will unfold Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of
next week, but good to excellent humidity recovery will still
occur each night. Smoke ventilation and dispersion rates will tend
to run on the lower side with limited pockets of brief mixing in
isolated areas during the mid to late afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  36  51  32 /  50  20   0   0
Dulce...........................  50  26  49  19 /  60  40   5   0
Cuba............................  47  29  49  26 /  80  30   0   0
Gallup..........................  47  26  50  25 /  60   5   0   0
El Morro........................  44  28  50  29 /  70   5   0   0
Grants..........................  49  24  52  25 /  70   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  47  25  52  28 /  70   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  47  29  51  33 /  80   0   0   0
Datil...........................  44  25  49  29 /  80   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  49  23  56  24 /  80   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  53  25  59  28 /  80   0   0   0
Chama...........................  46  24  45  20 /  80  50   5   0
Los Alamos......................  45  31  48  32 /  90  30   0   0
Pecos...........................  47  29  51  28 /  90  20   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  47  28  47  26 /  70  50   0   0
Red River.......................  40  22  41  21 /  80  50   0   0
Angel Fire......................  44  16  46  13 /  90  40   0   0
Taos............................  49  27  50  21 /  80  40   0   0
Mora............................  47  26  52  24 /  90  30   0   0
Espanola........................  52  29  55  26 /  90  30   0   0
Santa Fe........................  47  32  49  32 /  90  20   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  49  29  51  29 /  90  20   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  52  37  53  38 /  90   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  33  55  34 /  90   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  31  57  32 /  90   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  33  56  35 /  80  10   0   0
Belen...........................  55  28  55  29 /  90   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  55  33  56  33 /  80  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  55  28  56  28 /  90   5   0   0
Corrales........................  55  32  57  33 /  80  10   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  54  29  55  30 /  90   5   0   0
Placitas........................  49  34  52  36 /  90  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  54  33  56  34 /  80  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  57  32  57  33 /  90   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  30  49  31 /  90   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  47  31  50  32 /  90   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  48  29  51  28 /  80   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  26  53  22 /  90   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  47  28  49  28 /  90   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  48  28  51  28 /  90   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  49  28  51  28 /  90  10   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  52  31  54  33 /  80   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  47  29  52  32 /  80   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  47  28  51  26 /  90  50   0   0
Raton...........................  49  27  55  24 /  80  50   0   0
Springer........................  51  26  57  23 /  90  30   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  47  27  54  28 /  90  10   0   0
Clayton.........................  54  37  57  33 /  90  50   0   0
Roy.............................  51  29  56  29 /  90  30   0   0
Conchas.........................  58  32  62  31 /  90  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  55  34  59  31 /  90  10   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  59  34  62  30 /  80  20   0   0
Clovis..........................  60  37  63  34 /  90  10   0   0
Portales........................  61  37  64  31 /  90  10   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  58  34  64  30 /  90  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  62  36  65  34 /  80   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  60  32  63  34 /  70   0   0   0
Elk.............................  57  27  62  30 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for NMZ210-211-213-
214.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...77