Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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336 FXUS65 KABQ 231910 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1210 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Minor impacts from winter weather mainly across the higher terrain of western and northern NM will continue thru the evening. - Low visibility from fog will be likely along west facing slopes of western and northern NM tonight into Monday morning. - Those with travel plans for the late weekend and early week after Thanksgiving will want to stay updated with the latest weather forecasts and statements. Be prepared to alter travel routes or plans, as there are increasing indications a potent storm system will bring travel impacts across the Desert Southwest, including New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1202 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 The 564dm H5 low centered near the Four Corners and over Navajo Nation continues to fill with a dryslot bringing clearing skies into portions of central NM and more widespread across east-central and southeastern NM this hour. The main line of convective activity associated with the area of upper level divergence and vorticity maximum has pushed into the TX Panhandle. Precipitation from here on out will be associated with the core of the H5 low over western, northern, and central NM in the form of valley rain and mountain snow showers. Much of the snow above 8,500` has fallen already with another few inches likely b/w now and thru the rest of the evening. Satellite imagery and ground-based webcams are showing light snow reaching as low as Las Vegas, NM which is already quickly melting. As such, the Winter Weather Advisories for the northern mountains will remain in-tact with an expiration at midnight tonight. Drier conditions aloft will fill in behind the H5 low as it exits over the high plains of eastern CO and western KS Monday morning. Low-level moisture will stick around however with indications still present that light surface west-northwesterly winds will help anchor low clouds and fog along west-facing slopes of western and northern NM tonight into Monday morning. This will clear by Monday afternoon with breezy to locally windy northwesterlies developing. Peak gusts of 30 to 40 mph will favor areas along the central highlands from Clines Corners to Vaughn. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1202 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 Tuesday begins the long term period with numerical model guidance continuing to resolve a closed low traversing the northern Great Plains sending down a surface cold front into eastern NM. This will pause the warming trend there knocking high temperatures back 5F to 10F relative to Monday into the upper 40s and 50s. A stray light shower may try to develop along the Raton Pass and Johnson/Bartlett Mesas Tuesday afternoon where there is some easterly upslope flow, but this is a very low chance (~10%). The surface front advances further south and west across eastern NM and toward the east slopes of the central mountain chain Wednesday. High temperatures trend lower relative to Tuesday for areas south of U.S. Hwy 60. Areas along and west of the Rio Grande Valley will see little to no effect from this surface cold front. Very pleasant weather is in-store for Thanksgiving Thursday and Friday as a shortwave ridge of high pressure slides west to east across the state. Warmer temperatures and light winds Thursday with some breezy conditions Friday afternoon favored. Southwesterlies begin to increase Saturday ahead of an amplifying polar jet pattern over the northern Pacific. There remains remarkably good agreement among ensemble model suites that this amplification of the polar jet will result in a deepening troughing pattern bringing widespread winter weather over the western CONUS. Run-to-run consistency continues to feature a fair amount of variety in terms of strength and track of this next winter storm system. But current trends favor deteriorating winter conditions arriving into the region of AZ/NM Saturday night into Sunday with continued winter weather persisting into early next week. Travelers would be prudent to stay up-to-date on the latest forecast trends and have alternate routes and options to take. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1024 AM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 A mix of VFR and MVFR/IFR conditions continues to evolve across NM as a winter system crosses the state. The main convective line has progressed through eastern NM and is crossing the state line into TX this hour. Localized IFR conditions from heavy rain are no longer expected over eastern NM, however, MVFR conditions and fuel alternates may still persist for a few terminals for the next few hours as remnant showers and low ceilings persist. Steadily clearing conditions are expected along and east of the central mountain chain through the late afternoon and evening hours. Moderate to heavy snow with IFR conditions over the northern mountains will persist thru the afternoon before slowly improving tonight. Central and western NM will see scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers becoming more orographically driven along west facing slopes thru the afternoon. Overall improvements are also expected there with TEMPO interruptions from passing showers this afternoon. The exception will be where low clouds and fog anchors mainly to west facing slopes across western and northern NM tonight into Monday morning. These areas, which KGUP was included among them, will be the last to crawl back into persistent VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 No fire weather concerns thru the next seven days. Winter weather clears out of the area tonight with increasing northwesterlies bringing gusty winds to the central highlands Monday afternoon. However, humidity stays well above any fire weather thresholds. Winds abate for the rest of the week until Friday with a dry cold front bringing a 5-10 degree drop Tuesday and Wednesday across eastern NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 34 52 28 51 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 26 48 20 49 / 40 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 31 47 22 48 / 20 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 26 52 20 52 / 10 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 32 48 25 52 / 30 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 28 54 22 54 / 10 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 31 50 25 53 / 20 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 34 55 31 55 / 10 0 0 0 Datil........................... 31 50 27 53 / 20 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 24 60 22 62 / 10 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 25 64 23 68 / 10 0 0 0 Chama........................... 23 44 16 45 / 50 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 31 48 28 48 / 30 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 30 51 28 53 / 20 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 28 46 22 45 / 30 0 0 0 Red River....................... 23 39 17 39 / 40 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 18 45 12 45 / 30 0 0 0 Taos............................ 26 49 20 49 / 30 0 0 0 Mora............................ 26 52 24 52 / 20 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 29 54 23 55 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 33 49 30 50 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 31 51 26 51 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 39 55 35 55 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 35 57 31 58 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 30 60 26 60 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 35 57 32 58 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 26 59 22 58 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 35 58 29 58 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 24 58 20 58 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 34 58 29 58 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 26 58 21 58 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 36 53 32 53 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 35 57 30 58 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 35 63 33 61 / 5 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 33 49 29 50 / 20 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 33 50 30 52 / 10 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 31 52 27 53 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 27 53 23 55 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 30 50 28 50 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 31 53 28 54 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 31 53 28 56 / 10 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 34 55 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 32 52 33 55 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 27 51 25 45 / 5 0 0 5 Raton........................... 25 57 23 51 / 10 0 0 10 Springer........................ 24 58 21 54 / 10 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 28 55 25 52 / 10 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 36 58 33 49 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 29 58 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 33 63 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 36 60 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 35 65 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 38 64 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 39 65 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 36 65 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 38 67 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 34 64 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 29 63 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for NMZ210- 211-213-214. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24