962
FXUS65 KABQ 160835
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
235 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A overall hot and dry Father`s day is expected with hot temperatures
continuing into early next week. Southwest and south winds pick up a
bit today with the breeziest winds expected more so Monday and
Tuesday as a storm system moves into the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies. Moisture increases across eastern NM behind a
backdoor front Wednesday resulting in the return of shower and storm
chances during the afternoon and evening. These storms look to bring
a strong east canyon wind to Albuquerque Wednesday evening and
spread moisture west to the Arizona border come Thursday. This
higher moisture will bring better chances for shower and storms
areawide late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

An upper level ridge will shift slowly east across the area today
and be replaced by increasing southwest flow aloft as an upper level
trough/low progresses east from the west coast toward the Great
Basin. Daytime heating will result in another round of isolated
convection near the TX border later this afternoon/evening, where a
few storms may become strong to severe. Instability will be
supportive of severe storms later today, but 0-6km bulk shear will
be on the lower side at 20-25kts and may limit severe storms to when
they cross east into the TX Panhandle. Roswell is forecast to hit a
high of 105 today, so will issue a Heat Advisory for the Chaves
County Plains. Elsewhere, a warming trend will continue with highs
around 5-10 degrees above normal. In addition to stronger winds
aloft on Monday, a deepening lee side trough will help to produce
breezy to windy conditions by afternoon. Lower pressure heights will
take the edge off of the heat by a couple degrees, except across
east central and southeast NM where downslope winds will boost highs
a 1-2 degrees. Roswell is forecast to hit a high of 107 on Monday
and will need to issue another Heat Advisory. A dryline is forecast
to sharpen up a bit by late Monday near the TX border and act as a
focus for convective initiation. Storms that develop Monday
afternoon have a higher chance at becoming severe given a more
impressive shear profile with 0-6km bulk shear of 30-35kts. Any
storms that develop Monday afternoon will move quickly east into
TX.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A stray storm is possible along the dryline near the Texas border
Monday evening. If a storm were to develop it would be capable of
becoming strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail
being the main threat. Tuesday will be very similar to Monday with
upper level southwest flow at the base of a upper level trough over
the northern Rockies. Winds look to be slightly weaker on Tuesday
compared to Monday due to slightly weaker upper level winds.

As a shortwave within the larger scale upper level trough exits
northeast to the northern Great Plains Tuesday night, it will
send a weak backdoor front with higher moisture behind it into
northeast NM and east central NM. A stray shower/storm could develop
along the backdoor front in far northeast NM Tuesday evening into
early Tuesday night. At the same time, southeast return flow on
the western flank of high pressure will push higher Gulf moisture
from West Texas west into southeast and east central NM. It looks
like there will be a convergence zone across east central NM with
northeast to east winds north of the backdoor front and southeast
winds south of the backdoor front and east of the dryline boundary.
This convergence combined with higher moisture of PWATS around 0.75
to 1 inch will result in the development of showers and storms
across the east slopes of the central mountain chain and near that
convergence zone in east central NM. There will also be breezy south
to southeast winds across central NM including ABQ due to the strong
moisture gradient along the central mountain chain (much lower
moisture west of the central mountain chain and higher moisture east
of the central mountain chain). Outflow from storms across eastern
NM will help push a strong east canyon wind through the gaps of the
central mountain chain through the ABQ and Santa Fe metros. The GFS
guidance has east winds at KABQ peaking at 44 kts with the initial
push while ECMWF guidance has around 25 kts with that initial push.
A strong east canyon wind is definitely possible due to the
aforementioned strong moisture gradient. Ensembles agree in Gulf
moisture pushing all the way to the AZ border come Thursday morning.

It`s at this point where overall forecast confidence decreases.
There will be better chances for showers and storms areawide due to
the higher moisture. The question is how much moisture increases due
to differences in the upper level pattern. There will be a tropical
wave in the western Gulf, northern Mexico, and Texas vicinity, but
the overall track of this wave late week varies due to where the
western edge of the upper high centered over the northeast U.S. ends
up being. The GFS has this western edge further east over the
eastern Great Plains while the ECMWF has the western edge of the
upper high more over eastern NM. There will also be weak upper level
troughing over the Pacific coast. So the tropical wave could move
into New Mexico around the west flank of the upper level ridge in
the case of the GFS or be blocked by the westward expanding upper
level ridge and move across Mexico in the case of the ECMWF. The GFS
solution will result in much higher moisture, more cloud cover,
cooler temperatures, and widespread coverage of showers and storms.
The ECMWF solution will result in less available moisture, less
cloud cover, warmer temperatures and the coverage of showers and
storms favoring the higher terrain. Ensembles seem to be split
on these two scenarios. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with a couple
of potential exceptions. Patchy low stratus/fog may develop
overnight and bring MVFR conditions closer the TX border,
potentially impacting KROW and KTCC. Low probability of impacting
those terminals. Another round of storms near the TX border Sunday
afternoon/evening may impact KTCC, but low probability on that
scenario as well. Otherwise, gusty southwest winds will develop
across western NM Sunday afternoon and gusts to between 20-30kts
will be common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Hot, dry and unstable conditions will overtake most of the area
through Tuesday as an upper level ridge moves east across the region
and is replaced with southwest flow aloft. Elevated fire weather
conditions are forecast across western NM today with deep layer
mixing bringing gusty winds by late day. Stronger winds aloft on
Monday combined with a deepening lee side trough will bring breezy
to windy conditions and the potential for critical fire weather
conditions across far western NM were ERCs are more favorable for
the spread of fire. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for western
portions of the area, with wind speeds being the only limiter. Hot,
dry and unstable conditons will persist Tuesday, but with much less
wind. Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast Wednesday across
far western NM with wind speeds being the main limiter once again.
The combination of a backdoor front and Gulf moisture will result in
increasing humidity from east to west across the area on Wednesday
through Friday. Temperatures will trend down during the late week
period and chances for wetting rain and potential burn scar flooding
will trend up. Moisture will linger over the region through next
weekend, bringing daily rounds of wetting storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  55  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  89  45  88  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  90  52  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  93  45  90  46 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  89  49  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  93  47  92  49 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  91  52  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  93  60  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  90  55  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  94  47  91  45 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  97  61  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  84  45  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  89  61  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  90  57  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  85  50  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  78  47  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  82  41  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  90  49  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  87  51  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  96  58  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  92  59  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  95  56  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  95  65  95  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  98  63  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 100  61  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  64  97  64 /   0   0   0   0
Belen........................... 100  61 100  59 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  99  63  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  99  59  99  58 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  99  62  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas....................... 100  60  99  59 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  95  64  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  98  64  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro......................... 101  64 101  63 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  90  61  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  93  60  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  94  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  53  93  53 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  90  56  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  92  58  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  93  59  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  96  65  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  88  60  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  91  58  91  55 /   5   5   0   0
Raton...........................  94  56  94  54 /   0   5   0   0
Springer........................  96  56  94  55 /   5   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  90  54  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  96  64  96  65 /  20  10   5   0
Roy.............................  93  61  93  60 /   5   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  98  66 100  66 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  97  63  98  63 /   5   5   0   0
Tucumcari....................... 100  67 101  67 /  20  10   5   5
Clovis..........................  96  67  98  67 /  20  10  20  10
Portales........................  97  67  99  67 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Sumner..................... 100  67 101  66 /   0  10   0   5
Roswell......................... 105  71 107  70 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  99  63 100  62 /   0   0   5   0
Elk.............................  96  61  96  60 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for NMZ101-105-109.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11