930
FXUS65 KABQ 272052
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
252 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 250 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

- Shower and storm coverage gradually lowers through Saturday, but
  slow storm motion will keep the risk for flash flooding going,
  mainly on recent burn scars.

- Another surge of monsoon moisture moves in for the first week of
  July, resulting in greater coverage of showers and storms and
  an increasing flash flood threat in the days leading up to the
  Fourth of July holiday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are once again sprouting across
much of the central mountain chain, drifting east and northeast. A
few gusty outflow winds have been observed with some of the stronger
storms. These showers are expected to slowly progress into eastern
NM this evening and into tonight, with most activity likely to be
done by 9PM. The monsoon plume continues to split the state from
northeast to southwest, and this boundary between moist and dry air
is likely to shift a bit eastward through tonight and into tomorrow.
Across western NM we`ve seen dry conditions today, with humidity
values dipping into the single digits and temps reaching the low to
mid 90s, and much of the same is expected for Saturday. As it stands
now, Saturday looks to have the lowest coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast period, with only slight chances
of development near the Sacramento and northern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. CAMs, although having performed poorly through the
beginning of the week, continue to show rather limited storm
coverage tomorrow. Given PWATs trend lower across a majority of the
CWA, mainly garden variety showers are likely with lesser rainfall
rates under 1"/hr. As such, will forego a Flash Flood Watch for the
south central mountains given a lack of confidence in storm coverage
and intensity. Even with that though, it could only take one storm
in the wrong place to cause flash flooding, especially around burn
scars.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

High pressure continues to sit over NM into Sunday, continuing to
keep temperatures near to slightly above normal across much of the
state. Concurrently, a trough developing off the coast of CA begins
to interact with the high and send moisture northward across the
CA/AZ border, around its northern periphery, and depositing it back
into NM late Sunday and into Monday. This begins a slight uptick in
storm coverage Sunday, with a noticeable increase on Monday.
Development is likely to begin across the central mountain chain
with moist upslope flow, then storms are likely to drift more
southward given the positioning of the upper level high. Monday also
begins another stretch of increased risk of flash flooding,
especially around burn scars. Alongside storm coverage, a surge of
surface moisture is likely to push into eastern to central NM later
Monday night (likely to also be enhanced by outflow boundaries from
already developed storms). A gusty east canyon wind appears likely
Monday night through the ABQ metro area, as MOS guidance has been
picking up on this for awhile. The monsoon high continues to sit
over NM mid week, continuing the threat of slow and erratic moving
thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall. Into late next week,
deterministic models are in decent agreement on the trough finally
breaking down the monsoon high and ejecting eastward. With that,
this breakdown may be able to advect even more moisture into the
region and continuing a wet and active pattern across NM. PWAT
trends highlight this well, with late week showing potential for the
highest PWATs of the forecast period. Overall, after a quieter
weekend, an active monsoon pattern returns next week and may impact
the Fourth of July holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have a slight to good chance of
developing near the high terrain of the central mountain chain this
afternoon before drifting into the lower elevations. KLVS and KROW
maintain PROB30s for TS after 20z, with KTCC maintaining one after
00z. Short-lived MVFR conditions are possible at each site and
within any thunderstorm. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail
throughout the TAF period with light winds outside of
thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The monsoon pattern continues throughout the next several days, with
a slight break this weekend. Given this, minimal fire weather
concerns are forecast throughout the period. Humidity values are
likely to dip into the single digits across western NM this weekend
with poor to fair humidity recoveries, but with light winds and near
normal temperatures, only spotty elevated fire weather conditions
are possible. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across
southwest and western NM Sunday and Monday respectively before
moisture increases again once more, limiting any fire weather
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  55  96  58  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  46  90  45  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  54  88  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  45  93  49  93 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  49  87  54  89 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  50  90  53  91 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  53  88  57  90 /  10   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  59  87  61  89 /  10  10   0  10
Datil...........................  53  86  57  87 /  20  10   0  10
Reserve.........................  50  94  53  97 /  10   5   0   5
Glenwood........................  54  97  57 100 /  10  10   0   5
Chama...........................  47  83  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  60  86  61  87 /   5   5   0   5
Pecos...........................  54  86  57  86 /  10  10   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  53  85  53  86 /   0   5   0  10
Red River.......................  43  76  45  76 /   0   5   0  20
Angel Fire......................  40  78  39  79 /   0  10   0  20
Taos............................  51  88  49  88 /   0   0   0   5
Mora............................  49  83  50  83 /   5  10   0  20
Espanola........................  55  93  58  95 /   5   5   0   5
Santa Fe........................  57  88  61  89 /  10   5   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  57  90  59  92 /  10   5   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  94  68  95 /  10   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  94  65  96 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  97  65  98 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  95  66  97 /  10   0   0   0
Belen...........................  62  95  62  97 /  10   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  59  96  65  98 /  10   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  59  95  61  97 /  10   0   0   0
Corrales........................  61  96  65  99 /  10   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  58  95  62  97 /  10   0   0   0
Placitas........................  62  92  66  94 /  10   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  61  96  65  97 /  10   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  64  95  67  99 /  20   5   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  88  59  89 /  10   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  59  89  60  91 /  10   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  53  89  55  90 /  10   5   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  90  52  91 /  10   5   0   5
Clines Corners..................  53  84  56  84 /  20   5   0   5
Mountainair.....................  55  87  56  89 /  20   5   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  54  86  56  88 /  20  10   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  60  86  63  90 /  20  20   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  54  80  57  82 /  20  40   5  30
Capulin.........................  51  83  53  82 /  10  10   0  20
Raton...........................  51  87  53  87 /   5  10   0  20
Springer........................  52  88  54  88 /   5  10   0  20
Las Vegas.......................  52  85  54  85 /  10  10   0  10
Clayton.........................  59  89  62  90 /  20  10   5  10
Roy.............................  56  86  58  87 /  10  20   0  10
Conchas.........................  61  94  63  94 /  20  20   5  10
Santa Rosa......................  60  91  61  91 /  20  20   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  60  90  63  91 /  20   5   5   5
Clovis..........................  63  90  65  91 /  20   5  10   5
Portales........................  64  91  65  93 /  20  10  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  62  92  63  94 /  20  10   5   5
Roswell.........................  67  93  67  96 /  20  10   0   5
Picacho.........................  60  89  61  91 /  20  20   5  20
Elk.............................  58  86  58  89 /  20  30   5  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77