538
FXUS65 KABQ 081943
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
143 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 123 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and dry thunderstorms over parts
  of western and central New Mexico Monday and Tuesday will lead
  to potentially damaging downburst winds, patchy blowing dust,
  dry lightning, and a risk of new fire starts.

- Dry and breezy winds along with hot temperatures will result in
  an increasing risk for rapid fire spread each afternoon through
  Tuesday across far western New Mexico and across northeast New
  Mexico on Wednesday.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico
  Tuesday could producing damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses across the Rio Grande
  Valley and eastern New Mexico this upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Quite a few weather impacts and hazards are looming this week,
none of which are overly concerning on their own, but the
combination of these several minor threats will keep things busy
at the forecast desk. A speed max aloft (65 kt at 300 mb) is
moving into NM from the southwest today with sufficient mid level
moisture that will spawn high-based showers and thunderstorms,
producing mostly virga, gusty winds, and perhaps blowing dust.
These showers and dry thunderstorms will favor western to central
NM, and are projected to continue overnight before the speed max
shifts farther east on Tuesday.

Low level moisture via return flow is also modeled to enter
southeastern NM early Tuesday morning. Any low stratus or fog
should mostly stay southeast of our forecast area in the morning,
but the dewpoint rises will be significant with 50`s and low 60`s
(deg F) continuing to infiltrate our east central to southeastern
zones through the afternoon Tuesday. This moisture coupled with
rising instability and relatively weak, but sufficient, jet
dynamics will yield thunderstorms with a few turning strong to
severe on Tuesday, mainly over northeastern NM. Also of note, a
slight uptick in winds aloft (15 to 30 kt at 700mb) and a lee-
side surface trough will produce stronger prevailing winds on
Tuesday, especially over northern zones which will be most prone
to gusts of 35 to 40 mph. Pressure heights will remain high (about
85th percentile), and this will keep temperatures warm to hot
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

An upper level trough will move over the northern Rockies on
Wednesday, dragging drier westerlies aloft into NM. Although low
level moisture will have entered more of eastern NM early
Wednesday morning, this will be scoured out by the afternoon with
dewpoints falling quickly. This will put the kibosh on storms
while keeping breezy to windy conditions going. The drier air and
downsloping component in eastern zones will allow temperatures to
gain a couple to a few degrees, introducing more in the way of
minor risk for heat related impacts and illnesses on Wednesday.

The Wednesday trough will eject into southern Ontario with
another shortwave trough dropping over WY/NE/SD on Thursday. This
will lead to another lee-side surface trough in northeast NM with
dry, hot, and moderately breezy conditions persisting. A few
locations will gain a couple degrees more on Thursday, pushing
them close to Heat Advisory thresholds, particularly the lower Rio
Grande and lower Pecos valleys.

After the shortwave trough on Thursday ejects into the northern
Great Plains late in the day and overnight, a notable backdoor
surface front will slide down the plains and into eastern NM
through Friday morning. The backdoor front will meet up with moist
return flow, instigating significant moisture advection over
eastern zones and even modest increases over central zones. This
will be a catalyst for more showers and thunderstorms Friday with
lingering moisture getting recycled for another subdued crop of
storms on Saturday. The flow aloft is modeled to turn more
northwesterly into Sunday with another shortwave trough and
attendant moist, cold front potentially clipping northeastern NM
with additional storms following.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Visual Flight Rules will predominantly apply today and Tuesday
with the primary aviation weather concerns being showers and
thunderstorms that will produce minimal rainfall, but gusty
downburst winds. Rain will largely evaporate below cloud bases,
creating an environment favorable for very abrupt and erratic wind
gusts and perhaps blowing dust. Showers and thunderstorms are
already forming over the southern high terrain of New Mexico and
will work toward the central and northern areas through the
evening and overnight. A new crop of similar showers and storms
will redevelop Tuesday between the Continental Divide (KE33 to
K4SL to KGNT) and the central mountain chain (KAXX to KCQC to
KSRR) while wetter, stronger storms will be capable of developing
eastward into the plains. The wetter storms in eastern areas on
Tuesday would be more prone to the usual gusty winds, lightning,
hail, and brief downpours. Prevailing winds will be breezy to
windy with the strongest winds over west central New Mexico this
afternoon, spreading to northern areas of the state on Tuesday
when gusts will reach 25 to 35 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The transitional period between spring and the monsoon is upon us
with bouts of dry gusty westerlies continuing to threaten between
moisture intrusions. Through this evening, the main fire weather
concern is dry thunderstorms and gusty winds from virga across
western and central zones.

Moisture increases in eastern NM on Tuesday via return flow, and
this will lead to isolated to scattered storms capable of small
wetting footprints of rain east of the central mountain chain, as
well as hail and downburst winds. Meanwhile areas between the
Continental Divide and the central mountain chain will be more
prone to keep observing dry storms and virga Tuesday afternoon and
evening. The other concern for Tuesday will be a bit of an uptick
in winds across northern NM which will pose critical fire weather
concerns over northwestern to west central zones where low RH
will be juxtaposed, and consequently a Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for tomorrow.

Excellent humidity recoveries will grace the eastern plains
Wednesday morning, but unfortunately the low layer moisture will
all be scoured out by Wednesday afternoon with afternoon RH
plummeting. This drop in moisture along with breezy to windy
conditions will reintroduce marginal to critical fire weather
conditions on Wednesday, mainly in the upper Rio Grande valley and
northeastern quadrant of the state. For now, confidence is
highest in the northeastern zones where a Fire Weather Watch has
been expanded.

Winds are modeled to reduce into Thursday, but dry and breezy
conditions are still forecast with the northern zones poised to
observe the strongest gusts of 25 to 30 mph. In typical early June
fashion, the moisture then looks to return to the eastern half of
NM via a couple of backdoor fronts early Friday and again on
Sunday. This will reintroduce chances for wetting rainfall to the
eastern zones, but western areas will again be teased by virga and
a few dry thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  93  55  92 /  10   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  47  86  45  86 /  20  30   5   0
Cuba............................  53  86  51  88 /  20  30  10   0
Gallup..........................  48  89  46  89 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  51  84  49  85 /  20  20   0   0
Grants..........................  52  88  51  90 /  20  20   0   0
Quemado.........................  52  87  50  88 /  20  10   0   0
Magdalena.......................  60  86  59  91 /  10  20   5   0
Datil...........................  55  85  54  88 /  20  20   0   0
Reserve.........................  50  91  48  93 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  53  96  53  96 /  10   0   0   0
Chama...........................  46  77  44  79 /  20  50  10   0
Los Alamos......................  59  84  60  87 /  20  30  20   0
Pecos...........................  54  86  53  88 /  10  40  20   0
Cerro/Questa....................  52  79  51  83 /  10  40  20   0
Red River.......................  43  73  42  77 /  10  40  20   0
Angel Fire......................  35  77  38  79 /  10  40  20   0
Taos............................  53  83  51  86 /  10  40  20   0
Mora............................  52  82  51  85 /  10  40  20   0
Espanola........................  57  91  56  94 /  10  30  20   0
Santa Fe........................  58  85  56  89 /  10  30  20   0
Santa Fe Airport................  57  89  54  93 /  10  30  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  91  65  95 /  10  20  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  92  62  96 /  10  20  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  95  57  98 /  10  20  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  93  62  97 /  20  20  10   0
Belen...........................  60  96  60 100 /  10  20  10   0
Bernalillo......................  61  94  61  97 /  10  30  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  57  94  57  98 /  10  20  10   0
Corrales........................  61  94  61  98 /  10  30  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  58  94  59  98 /  10  20  10   0
Placitas........................  63  90  62  94 /  10  30  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  62  92  62  96 /  20  20  10   0
Socorro.........................  66  97  65 101 /  10  10   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  86  58  89 /  10  30  10   0
Tijeras.........................  59  88  58  91 /  10  20  10   0
Edgewood........................  56  88  57  91 /  10  20  20   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  90  53  92 /  10  20  20   0
Clines Corners..................  56  85  56  88 /  10  30  20   0
Mountainair.....................  55  89  57  91 /  10  20  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  57  88  58  90 /  10  20  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  65  92  65  93 /   5  10  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  55  84  57  87 /   5  20  20   0
Capulin.........................  52  83  51  87 /   0  40  30   0
Raton...........................  52  87  51  91 /   0  40  30   0
Springer........................  53  89  53  93 /   0  30  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  55  85  54  89 /  10  50  30   0
Clayton.........................  62  92  61  95 /   0  40  20   0
Roy.............................  57  88  56  93 /   5  40  40   0
Conchas.........................  64  95  63 100 /   5  40  40   0
Santa Rosa......................  62  91  61  97 /   5  40  30   0
Tucumcari.......................  68  97  67 102 /   5  20  40   0
Clovis..........................  66  93  65  99 /   0  10  20   0
Portales........................  67  94  66 100 /   0  10  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66  94  64 100 /   5  20  30   0
Roswell.........................  69  97  68 102 /   0  20  10   0
Picacho.........................  62  91  61  96 /   0  50  20   0
Elk.............................  60  89  60  93 /   0  30  20   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ101-105.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for NMZ104-123.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52