Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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312 FXUS65 KABQ 131121 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 521 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 456 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026 - The first notable cold front of the season will move through Wednesday, bringing breezy to windy conditions and cooler temperatures. - The first freeze of the season for the upper Rio Grande Valley, including Taos, is forecast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. - A backdoor cold front will sweep west across the area Thursday, creating strong east canyon/gap winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys through Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1220 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026 A 553mb 500mb low, currently over central NV per the latest water vapor satellite imagery, will move southeast toward the Four Corners through Wednesday while filling to near 563dam. Progressively drier air is being steered over the region ahead of the approaching low which will limit convective coverage and precipitation efficiency today, with the highest PoPs over the Four Corners closer to forcing associated with the approaching upper low. Increasing southwest flow aloft combined with daytime mixing will result in breezy to locally windy conditions by this afternoon. The upper low is forecast to continue filling as it lifts northeast from the Four Corners into south central CO on Wednesday, while pushing the first notable cold front of the season eastward across the state. Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast both ahead of and behind the cold front on Wednesday, with well below average temperatures across northwest NM. The upper low and cold front will force precipitation along the CO border and over the northern mountains on Wednesday, but the latest trends favor less precipitation as drier air wraps under the upper low circulation. A few thunderstorms are likely Wednesday ahead of the cold front across the east central and southeast plains near the TX border where Gulf moisture will provide fuel. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1220 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026 The coldest night so far this season is expected Wednesday night, with sub-freezing temperatures forecast across much of west central, southwest and north central NM. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the upper Rio Grande Valley, including Taos, for late Wednesday night into Thursday, with a high probability for the 1st freeze of the season in that area. The departing and weakening upper low will leave behind a baggy trough oriented from northeast to southwest across the region on Thursday, which is forecast to close off into a 2nd upper low and retrograde southwest across AZ through Thursday night. At the same time, a backdoor cold front will race west across NM, resulting in a strong east canyon/gap wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. While the 00Z MOS guidance has come down from some of the previous runs, there is a still a high probability of at least advisory-type speeds late Thursday through Thursday night. Daytime temperatures will be well below average on Friday behind the backdoor cold front. The weekend forecast is more uncertain, but the retrograding upper low is forecast to stall over the Baja Peninsula and may pick up and steer tropical moisture north into NM, resulting in another round of precipitation. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 456 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for moderate probabilities for MVFR conditions in light rain at KGUP and KFMN this morning and again late tonight. Otherwise, breezy southwest winds will develop Tuesday across a majority of the area, with frequent gusts between 20-30kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. An upper level trough/low will deliver gusty southwest winds today, followed by the first notable cold front of the season on Wednesday. Chances for wetting precipitation associated with the upper level trough will be confined to far western and north central NM through Wednesday. A strong backdoor cold front will follow the departing upper level trough on Thursday, bringing strong east winds to much of the area. Daytime temperatures will be well below average Wed/Thu behind the cold fronts. Vent rates will generally be good to excellent through the work week, but take a dip and be poor over the weekend as increasing cloud cover and potential wetting precipitation keep the lower levels of the atmosphere inverted. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 63 46 55 36 / 50 60 50 0 Dulce........................... 57 36 53 27 / 80 60 80 10 Cuba............................ 62 42 55 32 / 20 20 50 0 Gallup.......................... 60 38 54 27 / 60 50 20 0 El Morro........................ 60 38 54 28 / 20 30 20 0 Grants.......................... 65 42 58 30 / 5 20 20 0 Quemado......................... 63 41 58 31 / 0 10 10 0 Magdalena....................... 69 47 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 64 41 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 65 43 66 33 / 10 10 5 0 Glenwood........................ 69 46 70 38 / 20 10 10 0 Chama........................... 53 38 48 27 / 80 40 80 20 Los Alamos...................... 64 46 59 37 / 0 0 10 5 Pecos........................... 66 43 60 36 / 0 0 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 61 42 56 33 / 20 0 30 20 Red River....................... 53 33 48 26 / 10 0 40 20 Angel Fire...................... 60 24 55 19 / 0 0 20 20 Taos............................ 64 39 59 30 / 5 0 20 10 Mora............................ 67 36 60 33 / 0 0 10 10 Espanola........................ 70 45 65 36 / 0 0 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 66 47 61 39 / 0 0 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 69 45 63 37 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 73 54 69 44 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 74 51 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 76 50 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 74 52 68 43 / 5 5 0 0 Belen........................... 77 49 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 75 50 70 39 / 5 0 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 76 48 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 75 51 70 42 / 5 5 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 76 49 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 72 52 67 42 / 0 0 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 74 51 69 42 / 5 5 5 0 Socorro......................... 78 51 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 46 63 36 / 0 0 5 0 Tijeras......................... 69 48 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 70 45 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 42 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 68 46 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 69 46 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 69 46 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 73 53 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 68 47 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 71 41 59 38 / 0 0 20 50 Raton........................... 74 40 64 38 / 0 0 20 40 Springer........................ 76 39 68 38 / 0 0 10 30 Las Vegas....................... 68 42 63 37 / 0 0 5 10 Clayton......................... 80 51 65 48 / 0 5 20 70 Roy............................. 74 47 67 44 / 0 0 5 20 Conchas......................... 83 55 75 50 / 0 0 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 80 52 76 48 / 0 0 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 86 57 76 53 / 0 0 40 20 Clovis.......................... 87 59 78 55 / 5 10 50 10 Portales........................ 88 60 80 55 / 0 10 50 5 Fort Sumner..................... 85 56 79 52 / 0 0 5 5 Roswell......................... 90 59 86 55 / 0 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 83 53 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 80 51 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for NMZ216. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11