353
FXUS65 KABQ 300516 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1116 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1021 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations
  of New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in
  the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning,
  gusty winds, hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at
  varying coverages over the next seven days. Flash flooding will
  be possible in areas that receive multiple days of heavy
  rainfall or repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The Monsoon high remains firmly over NM today, as denoted by the
596dm 500mb heights on the 18z ABQ sounding. This is a 1dm decrease
from yesterday, which was modeled well. As such, temperatures across
the forecast area look to be just few degrees below what was
observed yesterday. Several lower elevation locations will still get
into the high 90s to low 100s, and there will still be moderate to
major Heat Risk for those locations given this elongated stretch of
hot temperatures. While no Heat Advisories are in effect today given
temperatures are just below thresholds, folks should still be
mindful of the heat when outdoors.

Scattered thunderstorms are once again expected today, beginning
over the high terrain. The 18z ABQ sounding had a PWAT of 1.01",
which is still plenty moist enough for monsoon thunderstorms to
form. The interesting thing on the sounding are the evident
inversions between 750-645mb (SBCIN value of -138 J/kg). This is
likely the cause of the stunted growth of cumulus clouds across the
state so far this early afternoon. Storms are still expected to get
going throughout the afternoon, however, as the convective
temperature of the sounding is 94F. Most showers and storms will
develop off the high terrain, mainly along the central and western
mountains. The greater area of focus are the storms likely to form
and move off of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Given a more
favorable westerly storm motion, along with south to southeast
surface, it is not out of the question to see a strong to severe
storm to develop. Bulk shear is marginal (~25-30kts), but can be
enough to sustain an updraft or two. In addition, the atmosphere
remains moist (SPC mesoanalysis PWATs above 1"), so any slow moving
or repeated rounds of storms may cause localized flash flooding.
Elsewhere, coverage of thunderstorms is likely to be less than
yesterday, but several areas have become saturated/sensitive, so any
slow moving storm moving over those areas has a good chance to
produce flooding impacts. Showers and storms this evening are likely
to fizzle out through the nighttime hours.

Thursday shapes up to act as a very similar copy to today, with
scattered thunderstorms across the high terrain early afternoon,
pushing off to the adjacent highlands and lowlands through the
afternoon and evening. The high pressure over us looks to strengthen
a decameter or two, increasing the temperatures over our area by a
degree or two. Locations in eastern NM are very closely flirting
with Heat Advisory criteria, but given it appears very localized at
the moment, will push to future shifts about potential heat
highlights. A similar setup of storms is likely across the
northeast, though coverage is likely to be a touch higher, and once
again cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms. SPC has placed
a Marginal (1/5) Risk of severe storms across far northeast NM, and
this is in line with our thinking of the slightly higher coverage of
storms compared to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Friday starts a more active few days of storms across the area.
Remnant outflow boundaries are likely to be in place across eastern
NM, and the high pressure looks to be shoved to the west by an
approaching trough across the central Great Plains. As such, with
return flow across eastern NM throughout the day, upslope flow in
conjuncture with northwest to north upper level flow sets the stage
for numerous storms along the central mountain chain. Given the
forecast increase of bulk shear values, there is higher confidence
that a few severe storms will be observed across northeast and east
central NM. Additionally, with the potential for repeated rounds of
storms by either training or redevelopment, there is concern for
flash flooding as well. For the most part, many eastern NM locations
have not seen much rainfall over the past several weeks, so this
rainfall is sure to be welcomed. However, cannot rule out "too much
of a good thing" rainfall occurring in some of these dry locations.
On top of this, the more north-south storm motion sets up a higher
risk of burn scar flash flooding over the Ruidoso area. One last
item for Friday: clusters of storms are likely to produce an outflow
boundary surging westward towards the central mountain chain, and
looks increasingly likely to generate a gusty east canyon wind for
the ABQ and Santa Fe metro area, as well as areas down the Rio
Grande Valley.

Saturday sets up similarly to Friday, though the high pressure
continues to push westward. Depending on how far west that goes, it
will dictate what parts of the state would see the highest storm
coverage. Currently, the most likely scenario is another round of
numerous storms developing over the central mountain chain pushing
southward. Forecast bulk shear values are sufficient enough for a
few storms to turn strong to severe once again. Given this moisture
is most likely to be channeled along the central mountain chain,
this looks like another elevated risk day for flash flooding across
the Ruidoso area burn scars. Conditional flooding threats may also
develop elsewhere, but would depend on the rainfall observed on
Friday.

The high looks to rebound back towards NM on Sunday, orienting the
flow over the state in a more northeast-southwest direction. This
likely heavily limits the storm coverage across the area to only a
few scattered storms across the high terrain. Storm chances look to
gradually rebound through next week as the high is favored to break
down a bit and for moisture to begin wrapping around. Hotter
temperatures also look to favor central and western NM, where the
lower storm coverage and higher pressure heights are forecast to be.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
short-lived MVFR conditions in iso/sct showers and storms Thursday
afternoon/evening. Winds will generally be light outside of gusty
thunderstorm outflow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

No critical fire weather conditions are forecast over the next
several days. Daily thunderstorm chances continue across the high
terrain through the forecast area, with there being low chances of a
few strong to severe storms over northeast areas today and tomorrow
afternoon. Storm coverage continues to increase going into Friday
and Saturday, mainly along and east of the central mountain chain
(though could spread more westward on Saturday). All storms will
have the capability to produce frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall. ERCs across eastern NM are currently at or above the 97th
percentile, so rainfall of any kind will be welcomed there. There is
a chance for isolated elevated fire weather conditions this weekend
across far northwest NM given humidity in the low teens and a
forecast lack of precipitation. Winds will be a big limiting factor
in the conditions becoming more widespread. Near to above average
high temperatures continue statewide for the foreseeable future.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  96  66  99 /  20   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  56  93  55  95 /  10  10   5   5
Cuba............................  60  92  61  93 /  20  10  10  10
Gallup..........................  60  92  61  95 /  20  30   5  10
El Morro........................  58  87  60  90 /  20  30  10  20
Grants..........................  60  92  62  94 /  30  40  20  10
Quemado.........................  60  89  61  92 /  20  40  20  10
Magdalena.......................  65  91  67  92 /  10  30  20  20
Datil...........................  60  88  61  89 /  20  30  30  30
Reserve.........................  60  94  62  96 /  20  30  20  50
Glenwood........................  65  99  68 100 /  20  10  20  50
Chama...........................  55  86  54  87 /  10  10  10  30
Los Alamos......................  64  89  65  89 /  20  20  10  30
Pecos...........................  60  95  62  90 /  10  10  10  70
Cerro/Questa....................  57  88  57  85 /  40  20  20  50
Red River.......................  49  81  49  78 /  30  20  20  70
Angel Fire......................  44  84  44  81 /  10  20  20  80
Taos............................  58  92  58  89 /  20  20  20  40
Mora............................  56  89  58  84 /  10  20  20  80
Espanola........................  62  97  64  97 /  20  20  10  20
Santa Fe........................  64  93  65  92 /  10  10  10  40
Santa Fe Airport................  62  96  64  95 /  10  10  10  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  97  71  97 /  10   0  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  99  73  98 /  10   0  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  65 101  66 100 /  10   0  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  99  72  99 /  10   5  10  10
Belen...........................  68 101  72 101 /  10   0  10  10
Bernalillo......................  68 100  70  99 /  10   0  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  65 101  68 100 /  10   0  10  10
Corrales........................  68 101  71 100 /  10   0  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  67 101  70 100 /  10   0  10  10
Placitas........................  67  96  69  96 /  10   0  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  69  99  71  99 /  10   5  10  10
Socorro.........................  72 102  74 102 /  10  10  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  93  66  91 /  10   0  10  30
Tijeras.........................  64  94  67  93 /  10   0  10  30
Edgewood........................  61  94  64  92 /  10   5  10  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  96  62  94 /  10  10  10  60
Clines Corners..................  62  93  64  90 /  10  10  10  70
Mountainair.....................  62  95  65  94 /  10   5  10  40
Gran Quivira....................  63  94  65  93 /   5  10  10  40
Carrizozo.......................  68  98  70  98 /  10  20  10  50
Ruidoso.........................  60  90  62  90 /  10  40  20  70
Capulin.........................  58  90  59  84 /  40  50  40  80
Raton...........................  57  95  59  89 /  40  50  40  90
Springer........................  58  97  60  91 /  30  30  30  80
Las Vegas.......................  59  94  61  87 /  10  20  20  80
Clayton.........................  67  99  67  92 /  40  50  60  40
Roy.............................  64  97  65  90 /  40  20  30  80
Conchas.........................  69 105  70  98 /  20  10  20  80
Santa Rosa......................  67 101  68  96 /  10  10  20  60
Tucumcari.......................  72 105  72  99 /  20   5  30  40
Clovis..........................  69 101  70  99 /   0   5  10  40
Portales........................  70 102  72 101 /   0   0   5  40
Fort Sumner.....................  71 103  72 100 /   5   5  10  40
Roswell.........................  72 103  75 104 /   0   0   5   5
Picacho.........................  67  98  69  98 /   0  10  10  40
Elk.............................  64  93  66  94 /   5  20  20  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...11