903
FXUS65 KABQ 050804
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
204 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 156 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Slow moving storms with heavy rainfall may create localized
  flash flooding along and east of the central mountain chain each
  afternoon and evening through Saturday. Areas on and downstream
  of burn scars, including the Ruidoso area, will have the
  highest risk.

- Scattered light showers and isolated dry thunderstorms over
  parts of west central New Mexico will threaten strong and
  erratic gusty winds, dry lightning, and risk of new fire starts
  this afternoon and Friday afternoon.

- Dry and and seasonably hot conditions early next week with a
  moderate risk for heat-related illnesses across the Rio Grande
  Valley and eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 156 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A broad 583dm H5 low over southern Sonora this morning will drift
northeast across Chihuahua today and deepen to near 579dm over
the Permian Basin Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a 585dm H5 ridge
will build from eastern AZ into northwest NM. A narrow corridor
of stronger northeast to southwest steering flow and deformation
will develop over central and eastern NM between these two upper
level features today. At the surface, low level southeast flow is
keeping surface dewpoints in the 50s and 60s east of the central
mt chain. This pattern will be more favorable for locally heavy
rainfall along the central mt chain today as storm cells latch
onto the east slopes before moving southwest off the high terrain
into nearby highlands and valleys. Additional development will
occur on outflows that propagate eastward into moist low level
inflow over eastern NM. Hi-res models support higher-end QPF
amounts >1" from several cells with REFS LPMM values near 1.5"
from the heavier activity. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the
Ruidoso area. The flood risk for burn scars will depend on where
storm initiation occurs. The ABQ metro also has a higher chance
for storms to roll off the Sandias into the metro but confidence
on rainfall amounts is low given the large spread in CAM placement
of the stronger cells.

Scattered storms and areas of rain will focus over eastern NM
tonight as lift and instability improves with the approaching
upper low and outflow boundaries roam the area. The 579dm H5 low
will continue moving northeast into OK Saturday afternoon while
the H5 high becomes more well-defined over southeast AZ. This
pattern will allow stronger north-south steering flow to develop
over NM. Low level flow will become more south/southwest with
drier air and warmer temps taking over more of the area. Another
crop of showers and storms will develop along the central mt chain
then propagate on outflows into nearby highlands thru the early
evening. Locally heavy rainfall is likely again with similar REFS
LPMM QPF >1.5" in a few cells.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 156 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

By Sunday, the upper level ridge will shift east across southern NM
as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Drier air will
spread into the entire region with hot temps and near-zero storm
chances. Monday and Tuesday will be similar but with even hotter
temps and slightly stronger southwest winds. There are areas of
moderate heat risk showing up over much of eastern NM and parts of
the RGV Sunday thru Tuesday. Several days in a row with highs in
the low 100s are likely for the Roswell area.

Forecast confidence decreases Wednesday and Thursday as there are
timing and placement differences amongst extended model guidance
with the synoptic pattern. There is potential for additional storm
activity to affect the region both days if moisture pooling over
western MX is scooped up by the next upper level trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Mid and high level clouds will persist overnight over southern
and eastern NM as a broad upper level low drifts northeast from
northern Mexico. The low will help to provide greater lift over
the region Friday for increasing coverage of SHRA/TS. Storms will
develop over the high terrain between 11am and noon then spread
south and southwest around 10 to 15kt into nearby highlands and
valleys thru sunset. Direct hits will be capable of producing
heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.
Convection will persist into late Friday evening over eastern
NM while the low continues drifting northeast thru the Permian
Basin.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Single digit minimum humidity with poor overnight recoveries will
persist over western NM thru Saturday. West to southwest winds will
trend a tad stronger each day thru Saturday but remain subcritical
outside of high-based showers. Meanwhile, areas along and east of
the Rio Grande Valley will be favored for showers and storms. A few
storms between the Cont Divide and RGV may be a mix of wet and dry
thru Saturday while eastern NM has higher chances of locally heavy
rainfall. Storm motions will be toward the south/southwest today
then south/southeast Saturday. By Sunday and Monday, drier air will
begin filtering eastward across the entire region as an upper level
trough approaches from the west. Elevated to locally critical fire
weather will focus over western NM both days but winds may remain
subcritical. Stronger southwest winds may spread over northern and
western NM Tuesday and Wednesday with a greater risk for critical
fire weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  94  57  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  90  45  89  45 /   5   0  20   5
Cuba............................  87  52  87  54 /  10   5  20  10
Gallup..........................  90  49  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  85  51  85  53 /   5   5   0   0
Grants..........................  89  51  89  56 /  10   5   5   5
Quemado.........................  86  54  86  53 /   5   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  84  57  86  60 /  20  30  20  10
Datil...........................  83  54  84  56 /  20  20   5   0
Reserve.........................  92  49  92  49 /   5   5   5   0
Glenwood........................  96  51  96  51 /  10  10   0   0
Chama...........................  82  43  82  43 /  20   0  30  10
Los Alamos......................  84  57  82  58 /  10   0  40  20
Pecos...........................  84  49  83  50 /  40  20  70  20
Cerro/Questa....................  83  50  82  52 /  20  10  40  20
Red River.......................  74  43  73  43 /  30   5  60  30
Angel Fire......................  78  42  77  43 /  30   5  70  20
Taos............................  85  48  84  49 /  20   5  30  20
Mora............................  81  49  80  50 /  40  20  70  20
Espanola........................  92  55  91  56 /  10   5  20  20
Santa Fe........................  84  56  83  57 /  30  10  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  87  54  87  54 /  20  10  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  63  91  64 /  20  10  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  59  92  61 /  20  10   5  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  59  95  61 /  20  10   0  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  61  93  62 /  20  10  10  20
Belen...........................  93  57  95  60 /  20  10   0  20
Bernalillo......................  93  61  93  62 /  20  10  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  93  56  94  58 /  20  10   0  20
Corrales........................  95  61  94  62 /  20  10  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  93  57  94  60 /  20  10   0  20
Placitas........................  89  61  89  62 /  20  10  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  93  61  93  62 /  20  10  10  20
Socorro.........................  94  62  95  66 /  10  20   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  57  86  57 /  20  10  20  20
Tijeras.........................  87  55  87  56 /  30  10  10  20
Edgewood........................  87  53  87  55 /  30  10  40  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  49  88  51 /  40  10  40  20
Clines Corners..................  82  52  82  54 /  50  20  50  20
Mountainair.....................  84  51  86  54 /  50  20  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  82  52  84  56 /  60  20   5  20
Carrizozo.......................  83  58  86  61 /  50  30  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  74  54  78  57 /  70  30  50  20
Capulin.........................  83  48  79  48 /  30  10  30  20
Raton...........................  87  50  85  50 /  20   5  50  20
Springer........................  87  50  84  51 /  30  10  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  82  51  82  51 /  30  20  50  20
Clayton.........................  88  56  84  55 /  10  10   5  10
Roy.............................  83  53  82  53 /  20  20  10  20
Conchas.........................  90  58  88  58 /  10  20   5  20
Santa Rosa......................  87  56  85  56 /  10  20  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  90  60  87  60 /   5  10   5  10
Clovis..........................  85  59  83  59 /   5  30  20  10
Portales........................  85  59  84  59 /  10  30  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  86  58  86  58 /  10  20   5  10
Roswell.........................  87  61  88  61 /  10  30   5  10
Picacho.........................  81  56  85  57 /  20  20  20  10
Elk.............................  78  53  84  56 /  40  20  50  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this afternoon for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42