533
FXUS65 KABQ 021141 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 536 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Thunderstorms will occur daily through Saturday along and east
  of the Continental Divide with lightning, erratic downburst
  winds, hail, heavy downpours, and a risk of flash flooding below
  recent burn scars.

- Daily scattered storms over western New Mexico will produce
  cloud-to-ground lightning with localized, brief, and erratic
  wind gusts near 50 mph, little or no rain at the surface, and a
  risk of new fire starts through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 120 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A neutrally-tilted upper level trough can be seen on water vapor
imagery just offshore of southern CA, and another weaker shortwave
trough also appears to be over Sonora, lifting northeast toward
AZ. Increased high cirrus clouds are spreading ahead of the latter
shortwave into AZ and NM with some remnant mid level clouds left
over from diurnal cumulus yesterday. In the lower layers of the
atmosphere, moisture advection is underway with higher dewpoints
advancing farther northwestward into NM. Low 40`s dewpoints can
already be seen in the lower Rio Grande with 40`s to 50`s
dewpoints also spreading over the eastern half of NM early this
morning. However, the northern and western extent of the moisture
is not modeled to advance as far by this afternoon, compared to
what had previously been modeled, and this could stunt storm
chances into the ABQ metro, Grants, and points north and west.
Still, the surge in moisture in much of the southeastern half of
the CWA along with warm temperatures will lead to ample
instability for convective initiation over the central mountain
chain of NM this afternoon. A secondary area of drier storms
(dewpoints in the mid 30s deg F and PWATs of 0.5 to 0.7 inch)
will also initiate early this afternoon, and then cells will
propagate off of outflows and mesoscale cold pools, filling into
the lower the Rio Grande valley and the lower Continental Divide
through late afternoon. Meanwhile storms off of the central
mountain chain will advance into the adjacent high plains, and as
the evening arrives convection will slowly wane in the western
half of the state while staying invigorated over the eastern
plains through midnight and beyond. South southwesterlies aloft
would be in place (500 to 700 mb mean winds of 10 to 20 kt) prior
to convective initiation with disruptions coming from convective
clusters and the aforementioned shortwave trough. Pockets of storm
relative flow will alter enough to increase directional shear
sufficiently for a few strong to severe storms over eastern NM
this afternoon and this evening. Latest CAM`s keep storms going
over the eastern tier of counties through 03/0900UTC with showers
lingering through dawn Wednesday.

A weak cyclonic circulation is also modeled to take shape over
northern to northeastern NM by Wednesday morning with varying
placements dependent on model member. It stands to reason a lot of
debris clouds would linger through the morning Wednesday across
eastern NM, which may impede those areas from destabilizing as
quickly as western and central zones. The low layer moisture would
have advanced farther into western NM and the Four Corners region
by early Wednesday, setting the stage for more showers and storms
farther west, but with lighter steering winds these could have
trouble moving off of the Continental Divide and other western
high terrain. Also, dewpoints/PWATs would not be high enough to
support as much rain in these western zones. Once the central
mountain chain and eventually the eastern plains destabilize later
Wednesday afternoon, numerous storms should ignite again, albeit
likely fewer than today. The remnants of the aforementioned weak
circulation may still wander around northeast NM into southeast CO
Wednesday afternoon, but the flow aloft is projected to be too
low to support severe storms. Overall, 48 hour QPF totals ending
Wednesday have incrementally reduced over the past few days with
dewpoints and PWATs not quite spiking to previously advertised
levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 120 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

By Thursday, the trough offshore of southern CA will be moving
into the Gulf of CA as a weak low. Light flow taking on a bit more
of a westerly component will overlay NM, leading to a slight
drying in the northwestern half of the forecast area. Storms are
modeled to favor this southwest to northeast oriented moisture
boundary, but a notable decrease in storm coverage is projected
for Thursday. A similar regime is advertised for Friday as the
Gulf of CA low moves inland toward the Sonora and Chihuahua
border, a much slower pace than previous model runs. Into
Saturday, the low would finally exit northeastward into eastern
NM, giving convection a boost along and east of the central
mountain chain again. Storms would taper off from west to east on
Sunday as this low exits, but there are still large uncertainties
on how fast this will happen. This would then leave a ridge to
build with rising heights over NM into Monday, leading to drier
and warmer conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A few light showers are already developing between KONM, KSRR, and
KROW early this morning as moisture increases. The more active
period will begin shortly after noon though, with storms
initiating over the central mountain chain and southwestern high
terrain. Storms will fill in between these areas through the
afternoon while also expanding toward the eastern plains. Areas
just east of the central mountain chain will remain very active
with numerous showers and thunderstorms into this evening with a
few strong to severe cells producing larger hail, gusty downburst
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Storms will shift
to the far eastern tier of New Mexico after midnight and will be
slow to dwindle and die off through the early morning Wednesday
with some batches of MVFR ceilings potentially developing (20-40%
chance).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

The return flow is drawing up moisture from the southeast into NM
this morning, although it may not be quite as robust as what was
modeled a few days ago. Nonetheless, this will lead to a
significant increase in wetting storms and humidity, especially
over the eastern half of NM today while temperatures reduce a few
degrees. While the eastern half of the state gets a fair share of
soaking rainfall, most storms west of the central mountain chain
will be higher based due to drier moisture profiles, making them
less efficient at producing rainfall. This also introduces the
likelihood of new fire ignitions from dry lightning, mainly over
the lower Rio Grande valley into the southwestern mountains today.
Storms will initiate a bit farther to the west Wednesday as the
low layer moisture advances toward AZ and the Four Corners, but
again the main concern will be dry storms and new lightning
ignitions in far western NM Wednesday (especially west of the
Continental Divide) while the east tallies up more wetting
rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms will reduce and not be as
numerous into Thursday and Friday with storms struggling to
initiate west of the central mountain chain more and more each day
as the moisture works back eastward. Storms look to be fully
focused along and east of the central mountain chain by Saturday,
turning very sparse into the early part of next week. Prevailing
winds will stay light to moderate through the next several days
with the wind concerns emanating from short-lived thunderstorm
outflows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  90  58  88  56 /   0   0  10   0
Dulce...........................  86  46  82  42 /   0   5  50   5
Cuba............................  83  51  77  49 /   5  20  50  10
Gallup..........................  85  49  83  48 /   0   5  30   5
El Morro........................  83  51  79  49 /  20  10  50  10
Grants..........................  86  52  80  49 /  20  20  60  20
Quemado.........................  83  51  80  50 /  20   5  50  10
Magdalena.......................  81  55  76  55 /  70  40  70  40
Datil...........................  80  52  76  51 /  40  20  70  20
Reserve.........................  90  49  86  48 /  20   5  60  20
Glenwood........................  94  52  90  51 /  10   0  60  30
Chama...........................  79  44  73  41 /  10  10  70  20
Los Alamos......................  80  57  73  55 /  30  30  70  30
Pecos...........................  79  50  72  48 /  70  40  80  40
Cerro/Questa....................  78  50  73  49 /  40  20  80  20
Red River.......................  72  42  66  41 /  50  20  90  30
Angel Fire......................  72  43  67  41 /  70  40  80  40
Taos............................  81  50  75  47 /  40  30  80  30
Mora............................  76  49  69  47 /  70  50  80  40
Espanola........................  88  56  80  54 /  30  20  60  30
Santa Fe........................  80  56  74  54 /  40  30  70  30
Santa Fe Airport................  83  54  76  53 /  30  30  60  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  88  62  81  61 /  40  30  70  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  89  59  83  58 /  40  30  60  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  59  85  58 /  40  30  60  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  89  60  83  59 /  30  30  60  30
Belen...........................  90  56  84  57 /  60  30  40  40
Bernalillo......................  90  60  83  59 /  30  30  60  30
Bosque Farms....................  90  55  84  55 /  50  30  50  40
Corrales........................  91  60  84  59 /  40  30  60  30
Los Lunas.......................  90  57  84  57 /  50  30  50  40
Placitas........................  85  60  79  59 /  30  30  60  40
Rio Rancho......................  89  60  83  58 /  30  30  60  30
Socorro.........................  92  60  86  61 /  70  40  50  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  80  55  74  54 /  50  40  70  40
Tijeras.........................  84  52  79  52 /  50  40  70  40
Edgewood........................  83  52  77  51 /  60  40  70  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  83  50  77  49 /  70  40  70  50
Clines Corners..................  78  51  71  50 /  80  40  80  50
Mountainair.....................  82  50  77  51 /  70  40  70  50
Gran Quivira....................  80  52  75  52 /  80  50  70  50
Carrizozo.......................  84  58  79  59 /  70  50  60  60
Ruidoso.........................  76  53  71  53 /  90  50  80  60
Capulin.........................  76  49  68  47 /  60  50  60  30
Raton...........................  79  51  73  49 /  70  40  70  20
Springer........................  80  52  73  51 /  70  60  70  30
Las Vegas.......................  77  52  69  50 /  70  60  70  50
Clayton.........................  84  55  73  54 /  50  70  60  50
Roy.............................  80  53  70  52 /  60  70  60  50
Conchas.........................  87  57  76  57 /  50  70  70  70
Santa Rosa......................  84  54  73  55 /  50  70  80  70
Tucumcari.......................  91  58  78  58 /  30  80  70  80
Clovis..........................  91  59  77  59 /  20  70  70  80
Portales........................  92  58  78  58 /  20  70  70  80
Fort Sumner.....................  89  57  78  57 /  50  70  70  80
Roswell.........................  92  61  80  62 /  40  80  60  70
Picacho.........................  84  56  76  56 /  70  60  80  60
Elk.............................  85  54  76  54 /  80  50  90  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52