Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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077 FXUS65 KABQ 021126 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 526 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 518 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 - Arroyos, rivers and streams will continue to run high today after recent rainfall. Stay away from river banks. - Patchy fog may reduce visibility at times each morning through Saturday. Highest confidence exists across eastern NM Saturday morning. - Gusty gap winds will impact the Rio Grande Valley and Upper Tularosa Valley this morning. Strong crosswinds may create difficult travel conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1215 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 A weak upper low continues to retrograde southwestward this morning and should be centered near El Paso, TX this afternoon. Meanwhile, a backdoor front has pushed through eastern NM and through the gaps of the Central Mtn Chain. Gusty winds of 25-35 mph will be common across the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley and the Upper Tularosa Valley through this morning. However, a few locations within White Sands Missile Range have gusted above 50 mph this morning, so will issue a Wind Advisory for those areas. Low clouds behind the front will continue to impact much of eastern NM through Friday night. This will limit daytime heating in this area, keeping temperatures up to 20 degrees below normal this aftn. Weak low level northeast to east upslope flow will allow for pockets of drizzle and/or light rain through the rest of the morning across all of eastern NM, then across the South Central Mtns and portions of southeast NM through Friday night. There also remains a chance for patchy fog across portions of northern NM this morning, but slightly better chances for patchy fog Friday night into Saturday morning across portions of eastern NM. Quieter conditions are expected for Saturday afternoon as the upper high builds in from the northwest. Temperatures will climb areawide, though will remain near or below normal south of I-40. Some clouds will linger across east central/southeast NM, but elsewhere, sunny skies will prevail. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1215 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Quiet conditions are on tap Saturday night. On Sunday, the upper high over the Four Corners will strengthen slightly to 592dam, but temperatures will vary only slightly from Saturday. Northeast to east winds will increase as another back door front slides through the area and easterly synoptic flow strengthens as well. At H7, a 30kt jet streak is noted roughly along the I-40 corridor. Expect winds to pick up during the late morning hours with surface wind gusts near 25-35 mph across central and west central NM, to include ABQ, in the aftn. Winds will decrease around sunset. Monday continues to look quiet, though the upper high will weaken. There`s a small chance of a shower or storm across the south central mountains, but confidence is low that will occur. Dry conditions elsewhere with high temperatures near or just below seasonal normals. Models are in better agreement this morning that the shortwave that crosses NM on Tuesday and Wednesday will be quite weak, and will produce little, if any, precipitation. Greatest chances for any light precipitation will be across the northern mountains on Tuesday. Rather, it looks like temperatures will continue to climb. All areas will be near to above normal both days. An upper high will build into the area on Thursday, keeping temperatures at or above normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Gusty winds near 25-30kt will continue below canyons in the lower Rio Grande and upper Tularosa Valleys through the morning. Widespread MVFR cigs will continue across eastern NM through tonight, though cigs may dip briefly into IFR this morning and/or may briefly rise into low VFR this aftn/eve before lowering again. Light rain and/or drizzle will impact areas along and east of the Central Mtn Chain today, and across the South Central Mtns and portions of southeast NM tonight. VFR conditions will prevail across western NM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1215 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026 No fire weather concerns over the next several days given recent rainfall and saturated soils. Gap winds will continue through the morning hours in the Rio Grande Valley. Light rain and/or drizzle will impact portions of eastern NM through Friday night. A beautiful weekend is in store, though easterly winds will get gusty in the afternoon across portions of central and west central NM on Sunday. Gusts between 25 and 35 mph appear likely. Temperatures will gradually climb through the weekend and early next week. By Tuesday, temperatures will be at or above normal for all areas. Humidities will trend a little lower by that time, but daytime RH will remain above 25%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 74 49 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 72 38 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 67 43 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 71 41 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 67 39 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 68 41 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 68 41 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 63 44 68 48 / 5 0 0 0 Datil........................... 62 41 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 72 43 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 77 47 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 68 40 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 67 46 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 66 41 73 45 / 0 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 66 40 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 59 33 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 62 23 69 24 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 68 37 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 62 39 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 72 42 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 67 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 69 43 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 71 48 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 72 50 74 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 74 44 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 72 49 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 73 49 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 73 47 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 74 46 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 73 47 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 73 48 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 71 47 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 72 48 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 71 50 74 52 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 66 42 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 67 44 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 65 42 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 66 41 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 60 42 69 46 / 5 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 62 41 70 44 / 5 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 61 42 69 45 / 5 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 63 47 70 49 / 20 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 54 39 63 44 / 70 40 10 0 Capulin......................... 61 41 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 67 41 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 68 41 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 62 41 72 45 / 0 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 63 46 76 51 / 5 0 0 0 Roy............................. 64 43 72 47 / 0 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 67 48 77 51 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 64 48 74 50 / 10 10 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 64 49 76 50 / 40 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 61 50 72 52 / 30 20 10 0 Portales........................ 63 50 73 52 / 30 30 10 0 Fort Sumner..................... 65 50 74 51 / 20 20 0 0 Roswell......................... 66 55 74 54 / 40 30 10 0 Picacho......................... 60 50 70 48 / 90 60 10 0 Elk............................. 58 47 67 46 / 90 70 20 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until noon MDT today for NMZ224-225. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...34