Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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184 FXUS65 KABQ 302343 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 543 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 541 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026 - Daily rounds of thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday through Friday along and east of the Continental Divide with lightning, erratic downburst winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a risk of flash flooding, especially below recent burn scars. - Some storms over west central and northwest areas will produce cloud-to-ground lightning with localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts near 50 mph, little or no rain at the surface, and a risk of new fire starts. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1144 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026 Very dry southwest flow aloft will continue through Sunday night with few if any clouds. High temperatures on Sunday will climb around 3 to 9 degrees above today`s readings, while varying from 4 degrees below 1991-2020 averages on the northwest plateau to as much as 8 degrees above average across southeast areas. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1144 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026 Gulf moisture will surge over the forecast area during the work week with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The moisture will begin pushing into the forecast area from the southeast on Monday as a weak upper level trough forms over the CA coast. Showers and thunderstorms should be pretty isolated Monday afternoon and evening over the southeast and east central plains with scattered activity over the south central mountains. However, the deepening upper level trough on the west coast, and a building ridge of high pressure over the southern Great Plains, will cause Gulf moisture to push all of the way to the continental divide of northwest NM by Tuesday, when scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop south and east of the northwest NM continental divide. Moisture will continue to increase through Wednesday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms daily through Thursday. A series of perturbations in southwest flow aloft will sweep across the forecast area Tuesday through Thursday keeping showers and thunderstorms active during the late night and morning hours, especially over southern and eastern areas. The upper trough may form a weak, closed, upper level low pressure system as it swings through NM on Friday and allows drier air to begin moving over the state from the west. This may result in a notable downtick in shower and thunderstorm coverage on Friday, when scattered to isolated showers and storms look to favor the southwest mountains, and central mountain chain eastward. PWATs Tuesday through thursday look to vary around 0.80-1.30" over the southeast half of the forecast area, where there will be a risk of locally heavy rainfall during the afternoon and overnight hours. The recent burn scars of the south central mountains will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding as the week progresses and the soil gets more and more saturated. Rain amounts this week should commonly reach around 1-1.5 inches along and east of the central mountain chain with locally heavier amounts, especially over the south central mountains, southeast plains, and east central plains. West of the central mountain chain to the northwest NM continental divide, rain amounts should generally vary around 0.10-0.50" with locally heavier amounts favoring the mountains; especially the southwest mountains. Little or no precip is expected over the Four Corners area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026 VFR all areas the next 24 hrs with dry zonal flow. Westerly wind gusts of 15 to 25KT this evening will taper off after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1144 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026 Minimum humidities near and below 15 percent will continue daily until Monday, when they will begin to rise near 20 percent on the far eastern plains. Poor humidity recovery is forecast over most lower elevation locations of central NM tonight, then along and west of the central mountain chain Sunday night, and along and west of the continental divide Monday night. By Tuesday afternoon, critically low minimum humidities should be relegated along and west of the continental divide, then over the Four Corners on Wednesday. Tuesday through Thursday, the northwest edge of the Gulf Moisture should feature some gusty and dry thunderstorms along and west of the continental divide. Otherwise, the main fire weather concerns will be gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow, especially during the afternoon and evening over southern and eastern areas where a few of the stronger wet microbursts will be capable of producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts near 50 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 44 82 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 33 80 38 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 41 79 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 35 81 40 84 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 39 80 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 38 84 43 86 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 41 83 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 50 83 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 44 81 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 40 87 44 90 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 44 91 49 95 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 32 74 37 80 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 48 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 44 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 77 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 32 68 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 29 74 33 77 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 36 80 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 40 80 47 82 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 45 87 51 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 80 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 82 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 86 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 52 87 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 50 89 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 88 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 48 90 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 51 88 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 47 89 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 52 89 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 48 89 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 52 84 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 52 88 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 56 93 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 49 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 44 84 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 40 85 47 88 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 46 81 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 45 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 46 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 56 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 52 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 40 Capulin......................... 42 77 46 79 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 40 83 46 85 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 40 84 46 87 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 42 82 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 52 85 53 87 / 0 0 0 10 Roy............................. 46 83 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 49 91 55 93 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 48 88 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 93 59 96 / 0 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 54 94 59 95 / 0 0 0 20 Portales........................ 53 95 60 96 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Sumner..................... 51 91 58 93 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 56 97 63 97 / 0 0 0 20 Picacho......................... 53 92 57 91 / 0 0 0 40 Elk............................. 51 92 56 91 / 0 0 0 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...42