148
FXUS65 KABQ 221120 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 516 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along
  and west of the central mountain chain today, as well as the
  Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain
  westward through Wednesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain,
  localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

- Moderate to major heat risk will afflict lower elevations of
  central and eastern New Mexico during the latter half of the
  week into the weekend where highs climb back into the 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 112 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

GOES WV imagery shows a notably well defined closed H5 low spinning
northward along the NM/AZ border this hour, continuing to yield
sporadic shower activity through the western half of NM. There`s a
few isolated thunderstorms producing sporadic lightning as well.
Much of this activity will linger well into the early morning hours,
dwindling in coverage at the same time. Although, will need to keep
a close eye on a cluster of storms currently moving northward along
the Sacramento Mts toward the Ruidoso area b/w the 2a - 3a
timeframe. The closed low looks to open its circulation as it
progresses northward along the UT/CO border today. A healthy tap of
monsoonal moisture will follow this upper low northward into western
NM, aided by the northerly flow along the western periphery of the
monsoon high centered over northern TX. PWs reaching upwards of
1.20" to 1.40" or 2-3 std devs above normal, coupled with 1000-2000
J/kg of SBCAPE will allow for healthy rain production from
convective activity developing along the western high terrain and
along the Continental Divide. Observed rainfall amounts of 1 to 2+
inches seen Tuesday, notably over Gallup and Zuni have already semi-
impermeable ground conditions gulched and susceptible to flash
flooding from any further thunderstorm activity. One uncertainty
will be any morning cloud cover that would limit surface heating.
Nevertheless, convective initiation is expected near the noon hour
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of
localized rain rates of 1+ in/hr tracking northward toward CO across
the western third of the state with lowering precipitation chances
heading eastward toward the central and northeast highlands. Will go
ahead and issue a Flash Flood Watch for these areas along and west
of the Continental Divide today. Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso
area burn scars remains on track for the threat of storms developing
along the ridgeline and near or over the burn scars with potential
for updrafts anchoring over the same spot.

Thursday sees what`s left of the open low as an upper trough along
the northern periphery of the monsoon high which is forecast to move
squarely over NM by this point. Moisture recycling in the form of
afternoon convection will again favor development over the western
and northern mountains. Steering flow will be weak yielding the
threat of slow but shorter lived storms producing smaller wetting
footprints. Storms further north moving eastward off the Front Range
in CO will have better shear to work with and will be stronger in
nature. This convection will send down an outflow enhanced front
southward into northeastern NM Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 112 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Friday begins the long term with low-level moisture likely
replenished along the eastern slopes of the central mountain chain
from the aforementioned cold front. With the monsoon high still
squarely over the state, and staying there thru the weekend, this
will set the stage for daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm
activity recycling moisture each day with better chances for areas
along and immediately east of the central mountain chain relative to
recent days. High temperatures also climb back into the upper 90s to
low 100s for lower elevation areas, resulting in widespread moderate
to high heat risk.

The monsoon high looks to have little movement heading into early
next week, favoring a nudge eastward. This will allow for a slight
uptick in monsoon moisture from the Gulf of CA into the Desert
Southwest continuing daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm
activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A cluster of showers and storms is working its way northward
between KGNT and KAEG this hour. Otherwise, the state remains
split between BKN ceilings over western NM and SKC over eastern
NM. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor development over
the high terrain of central and western NM, with storms moving
northward and spreading over nearby lower elevation areas. The
eastern plains look to remain mostly clear of shower and
thunderstorm activity. Localized IFR/MVFR conditions will
accompany any passing thunderstorm. Conditions slowly clear thru
western and central NM this evening. Some low clouds may develop
MVFR conditions over portions of western NM tonight into Thursday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 112 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

No fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days. Afternoon
thunderstorm activity will favor areas along and west of the central
mountain chain today, spreading to more areas along the highlands
immediately east of the central mountain chain and portions of the
eastern plains late week, weekend, and into next week. The monsoon
high sets up shop over the state Thursday and beyond as well,
increasing high temperatures into the upper 90s to low 100s for
lower elevation areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  88  65  91  65 /  40  60  10   5
Dulce...........................  85  54  86  53 /  60  60  50  20
Cuba............................  85  59  86  60 /  30  40  30  30
Gallup..........................  83  60  88  59 /  70  50  20  20
El Morro........................  79  57  83  59 /  80  40  20  10
Grants..........................  83  58  86  59 /  80  40  40  20
Quemado.........................  81  58  85  60 /  70  30  40  20
Magdalena.......................  84  64  87  66 /  30  10  30  10
Datil...........................  79  59  84  60 /  70  30  30  10
Reserve.........................  85  57  90  59 /  50  20  20  10
Glenwood........................  90  60  95  63 /  40  20   5   0
Chama...........................  79  53  79  52 /  60  60  60  30
Los Alamos......................  84  64  84  64 /  20  30  40  30
Pecos...........................  86  58  88  60 /  30  30   5  20
Cerro/Questa....................  84  58  83  57 /  20  30  40  40
Red River.......................  75  50  74  50 /  30  20  40  40
Angel Fire......................  81  48  80  48 /  60  30  20  20
Taos............................  87  58  88  57 /  20  30  30  30
Mora............................  83  56  85  57 /  30  20  10  10
Espanola........................  92  66  92  65 /  10  20  30  40
Santa Fe........................  87  64  87  64 /  20  30  10  30
Santa Fe Airport................  90  62  90  62 /  20  30  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  68  93  68 /  30  20   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  70  94  71 /  20  20   5  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  67  96  68 /  10  20  10  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  69  95  70 /  10  20  10  30
Belen...........................  94  67  97  68 /  10  10   5  20
Bernalillo......................  92  68  95  69 /  20  20  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  93  65  95  66 /  10  10   5  30
Corrales........................  92  68  96  69 /  20  20  10  30
Los Lunas.......................  93  65  95  67 /  10  10   5  20
Placitas........................  87  67  91  68 /  40  30  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  92  68  94  69 /  20  20  10  30
Socorro.........................  93  70  99  72 /  10   5   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  62  88  64 /  40  30   5  20
Tijeras.........................  86  63  89  64 /  40  30   0  20
Edgewood........................  87  60  90  61 /  30  20   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  89  59  92  57 /  20  20   0  10
Clines Corners..................  85  59  88  60 /  20  10   0  10
Mountainair.....................  88  61  91  62 /  20  10   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  86  61  89  62 /  10  10   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  88  67  92  68 /  50  10   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  83  62  87  63 /  60  20  20   0
Capulin.........................  87  60  88  57 /   5  10  30  60
Raton...........................  93  59  93  58 /  10  10  40  50
Springer........................  94  62  94  59 /  10  10  20  40
Las Vegas.......................  87  59  89  59 /  10  10   5  10
Clayton.........................  98  68  99  66 /   5   5  10  50
Roy.............................  91  65  94  63 /   5   5   5  20
Conchas.........................  99  69 101  70 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  95  67  97  68 /   0   5   0   5
Tucumcari....................... 102  72 104  73 /   0   0   0   5
Clovis.......................... 100  70 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................ 101  71 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner..................... 100  70 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 102  72 105  73 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  93  66  97  68 /  20   5   0   0
Elk.............................  88  62  92  64 /  20   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for
NMZ201>208.

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this afternoon for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24