Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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822 FXUS65 KABQ 152016 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 116 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Rain showers and mountain snow showers are expected over western and north central New Mexico Sunday afternoon and night. A few inches of snow are expected above 8500 feet, mainly near the Colorado border. - Rain and mountain snow showers will become more widespread Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1222 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 Models are in good agreement on an upper level trough tracking northeastward across the Four Corners and producing rain showers and very high terrain snow showers over western and north central areas Sunday afternoon and night. There will probably also be some thunderstorms in the mix during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures at 700 mb will remain above freezing until Sunday night, when they will gradually fall between -2 to -4 C as a gusty Pacific cold front crosses NM. As a result, only an inch or two of snow accumulation are forecast above 8500 feet with the heaviest amounts on the high ridgeline of the Tusas Mountains. Most locations should receive under 0.15" of rain and liquid equivalent precipitation, except for locally higher amounts in the mountains and highlands north of I-40. In addition, Southwest winds will strengthen Sunday, and especially Sunday night. Peak gusts will probably reach up to 35 mph in some places Sunday afternoon. Then, there is a better than 50% chance that a ribbon of west wind gusts near 50 mph will develop on the upper east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Sunday night into Monday morning as westerly flow aloft strengthens over the central mountain chain. West wind gusts up to 40 mph will then favor the east central highlands and plains Monday afternoon, except for gusts around 45 mph at Clines Corners. In between weather systems, the weather will dry out on Monday. High temperatures will fall both Sunday and Monday with readings bottoming out Monday afternoon around 4 degrees below 30-year averages along the western border of the forecast area, and as much as 10 degrees above the averages along the eastern border. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1222 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 Models are agreeing better on timing, and to a lesser extent on the depth and track of an upper level low pressure that may bring more widespread and probably a little heavier precipitation to the forecast area Tuesday through Thursday. Ensemble clusters favor a track directly over the forecast area, or perhaps passing mostly north of the forecast area, like the operational run of the European Model. Thus, at this time some fairly widespread rain showers look to spread over western then central parts of the forecast area from the west Tuesday through Wednesday, then to areas farther east as well Wednesday night and Thursday. Temperatures will probably also drop into the -2 to -4 C range Tuesday night, then between -2 to -8 C Wednesday night, lowering snow accumulation levels near 6000 feet by Thursday morning. However, by then most of the moisture with the storm system will exit east of NM. After high temperatures stabilize in many locations Tuesday, readings will trend downward again Wednesday and Thursday, when they will vary from as much as 11 degrees below average over western areas to near average over the southeast plains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. High and mid level clouds will increase over western areas late tonight and Sunday morning as an upper level trough approaches the Four Corners. Sunday afternoon and evening, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over western and north central areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 Humidities will then climb above 15 percent tonight through the week ahead. The higher humidities will mitigate the impact of the stronger winds Sunday through Monday, especially with temperatures also trending cooler. Otherwise, areas of poor ventilation are expected to continue each day through Thursday, except for ventilation improvement with the stronger winds on Sunday. Southwest winds will probably become gusty across southern, central, and eastern areas Tuesday, then continue to be gusty across the east on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 68 40 65 37 / 0 5 50 50 Dulce........................... 67 25 62 29 / 0 0 40 80 Cuba............................ 67 35 62 31 / 0 0 30 40 Gallup.......................... 68 33 61 30 / 0 0 50 30 El Morro........................ 66 35 60 33 / 0 0 40 30 Grants.......................... 70 33 64 31 / 0 0 30 30 Quemado......................... 68 36 60 31 / 0 0 20 10 Magdalena....................... 69 43 65 37 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 67 37 60 32 / 0 0 5 5 Reserve......................... 70 35 62 30 / 0 0 30 10 Glenwood........................ 76 40 68 34 / 0 5 30 5 Chama........................... 62 30 57 27 / 0 0 20 80 Los Alamos...................... 64 41 61 35 / 0 0 5 50 Pecos........................... 69 38 63 34 / 0 0 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 37 60 32 / 0 0 0 40 Red River....................... 62 32 53 25 / 0 0 0 40 Angel Fire...................... 65 23 59 22 / 0 0 0 30 Taos............................ 67 30 64 31 / 0 0 0 40 Mora............................ 68 35 65 31 / 0 0 0 20 Espanola........................ 71 33 69 34 / 0 0 5 40 Santa Fe........................ 67 41 62 36 / 0 0 0 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 70 36 65 34 / 0 0 5 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 47 67 42 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 73 41 70 39 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 74 38 72 38 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 72 42 70 39 / 0 0 10 10 Belen........................... 73 36 72 37 / 0 0 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 73 40 70 38 / 0 0 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 73 35 72 36 / 0 0 5 5 Corrales........................ 73 40 71 38 / 0 0 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 73 37 71 37 / 0 0 5 5 Placitas........................ 70 44 66 39 / 0 0 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 71 41 70 39 / 0 0 10 20 Socorro......................... 75 43 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 40 62 35 / 0 0 5 10 Tijeras......................... 68 41 64 37 / 0 0 5 10 Edgewood........................ 69 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 31 67 33 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 68 38 63 34 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 70 40 65 36 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 71 40 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 74 44 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 70 45 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 68 36 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 72 33 69 33 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 74 31 71 34 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 70 38 67 37 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 74 41 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 74 38 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 79 38 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 77 40 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 80 39 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 81 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 82 43 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 81 40 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 84 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 82 45 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 79 42 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44