Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
096 FXUS65 KABQ 172339 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 539 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 531 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - The first freeze of the season will likely bring an end to the growing season in portions of northern New Mexico tonight. - Moderate breezes are likely each day in eastern New Mexico Saturday through Tuesday, creating briefly hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles. - A Pacific storm system will increase precipitation chances across western and northern areas Tuesday night through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 123 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 A clearly defined trough axis is currently over the Four Corners and will make its way south and east overnight. The trough could spark a few very light showers in southwest and central NM this afternoon and evening, but dry air will probably prevent these showers from reaching the ground. A cold front will cross the region from northwest to southeast this evening and overnight, with weak cold air advection occurring in its wake. Min temperatures will generally be 1 to 5 degrees cooler than last night, although there is some uncertainty with regard to valley inversion development given the light breezes and ongoing cold air advection. A Freeze Warning was reissued for the Espanola Valley since the freeze last night was localized to areas right along the Rio Grande. The far northeast highlands will likely see their first freeze of the season as well after getting very close (33F) last night. Agricultural interests should be aware that there is a very low chance (~10%) of a freeze along the middle Rio Grande Valley in Bernalillo and Valencia counties as well, although any freeze would be very localized and brief. A northwest breeze through the night should prevent a freeze from occurring in the Central and Northeast Highlands, although locations within those zones could flirt with the 32 mark as well. A NW/SE oriented jet streak in the wake of the trough axis will create breezy conditions tomorrow morning through the afternoon. The breeze will be light and pleasant in most areas such as the Albuquerque metro, but could produce wind gusts up to 35 mph late morning in the typical windy areas such as Clines Corners. Temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today`s, with a few degrees of warming across western NM. Overall, it will be a great day to get outdoor`s and enjoy the Fall colors. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 123 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 A subtropical ridge centered over Old Mexico will begin amplifying early next week, sending temperature readings higher over New Mexico. Both Sunday and Monday afternoons will be breezy in eastern NM, but gusts up to 35 mph or so should only be strong enough to create nuisance crosswinds. Strengthening winds aloft over the Sangre de Cristo mountains Sunday night could create some strong winds over the mountain peaks, with a very low chance that this translates to mountain wave activity further east over I-25 between Las Vegas and Raton. 3km lapse rates of around 6C/km suggest there will not be the stable layer needed for crashing mountain waves, but it will be something to watch moving forward given the strong terrain perpendicular winds. A downsloping northwest wind Monday afternoon will make it feel more like late summer again in the eastern plains with highs in the 80s. Roswell could even rise up into the upper 80s, with a 10% chance temps reach all the way up to 90F. A sfc high will settle into The Great Plains Monday night into Tuesday, sending a backdoor front in from the east and cooling temps 5 to 15 degrees in its wake. The cooldown will be short-lived as southwest winds take control again Wednesday as a closed Pacific Low ejects inland around southern California. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement about the location of the Low on Tuesday/Wednesday, but its evolution later in the week is more uncertain due to strong model differences with regard to the rest of the synoptic pattern over the western CONUS. The ENS favors a broad ridge over the Pacific Northwest, which would slowly bring the closed Low inland and keep it as a closed Low as it moves across the desert southwest. On the other hand, the GEFS favors quasi-zonal flow over the Pacific Northwest, which could phase with the closed Low and form an open wave as it moves into the Four Corners area. The open wave would be faster-moving whereas the closed Low would be slower moving, but precipitation chances would actually be higher with the open wave scenario since upper-level forcing would be stronger thanks to more intense jet level winds. That being said, rainfall amounts will generally be light with up to 0.25" across the western and northern high terrain Wednesday morning through Thursday. Snow levels could drop as low as 10,000ft Thursday behind a Pacific cold front so the northern mountain peaks could see their first dusting of the season during this timeframe. After Thursday, either quasi-zonal flow or weak ridging will likely develop over New Mexico, with high confidence in dry conditions either way. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Winds will decrease after sunset across northern, central, and western NM. West to northwest winds will remain a tad breezy overnight across eastern NM with local gusts near 20KT at times. Northwest winds will strengthen by late morning across the entire region with gusts of 15-25KT common at most terminals after 2pm. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days. Afternoon humidities will drop each afternoon through Sunday, remaining above 20% in most areas. A moderate breeze in eastern NM will alternate between northwest (Sat. & Mon.) and southwest (Sun. & Tues.), but wind gusts will generally remain below 35 mph outside of some stronger gusts over the crest of the Sangre de Cristo mountains Sunday night. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop each afternoon Saturday through Tuesday in eastern NM, the threat of rapid fire spread is very low due to unusually moist fuels. A Pacific storm may bring scattered showers to northern and western areas mid-next week, with generally low chances for wetting rainfall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 32 64 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 22 63 26 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 29 63 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 26 66 31 71 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 31 64 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 29 68 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 31 65 34 74 / 5 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 39 68 41 72 / 10 0 0 0 Datil........................... 33 65 36 71 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 31 74 36 77 / 5 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 36 78 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 25 60 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 36 63 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 35 65 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 31 61 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 25 54 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 17 60 21 63 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 25 64 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 32 65 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 33 69 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 38 63 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 34 65 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 43 69 44 71 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 40 71 41 73 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 38 74 39 75 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 40 71 41 73 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 34 73 36 75 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 38 72 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 33 73 36 74 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 39 73 39 74 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 34 73 37 74 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 39 67 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 40 71 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 42 76 44 78 / 10 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 37 63 36 66 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 38 65 38 68 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 33 65 33 70 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 29 67 30 71 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 34 63 34 67 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 36 65 35 69 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 36 66 34 69 / 10 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 41 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 41 64 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 34 64 31 70 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 31 69 31 74 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 32 71 32 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 34 68 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 44 71 36 73 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 38 72 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 41 78 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 43 73 36 74 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 44 77 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 48 78 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 48 78 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 46 77 40 73 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 49 81 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 76 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 42 75 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ217-228. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...42